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花旗:预期明年香港GDP增长2.5%,楼价增长3%,恒指目标28800点
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-15 02:39
Economic Outlook - Citigroup's economist for Greater China, Ray Chien, anticipates a faster recovery in Hong Kong's economic activity next year, although the growth rate will slightly slow down due to a higher base effect. The GDP growth forecast for the first half of next year is 2.2%, accelerating to 2.9% in the second half, resulting in an annual growth of 2.5% [1] Housing Market - Citigroup expects that the Federal Reserve's further interest rate cuts next year will help keep the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) at low levels, supporting a 3% increase in residential property prices in Hong Kong next year. However, commercial properties will continue to face pressure [1] Stock Market Predictions - The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is to reach 27,500 points by mid-next year, with a potential rise to 28,800 points by the end of the year [1] Risk Factors - Two major risk factors identified include ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the accelerated integration between Hong Kong and mainland China, which implies increased industry competition. Small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the food and beverage sector, are expected to face significant operational and profit pressures [1]