Economic Outlook - Citigroup's economist for Greater China, Ray Chien, anticipates a faster recovery in Hong Kong's economic activity next year, although the growth rate will slightly slow down due to a higher base effect. The GDP growth forecast for the first half of next year is 2.2%, accelerating to 2.9% in the second half, resulting in an annual growth of 2.5% [1] Housing Market - Citigroup expects that the Federal Reserve's further interest rate cuts next year will help keep the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) at low levels, supporting a 3% increase in residential property prices in Hong Kong next year. However, commercial properties will continue to face pressure [1] Stock Market Predictions - The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is to reach 27,500 points by mid-next year, with a potential rise to 28,800 points by the end of the year [1] Risk Factors - Two major risk factors identified include ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the accelerated integration between Hong Kong and mainland China, which implies increased industry competition. Small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the food and beverage sector, are expected to face significant operational and profit pressures [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong's economic activity is expected to recover faster next year, but the growth rate will slightly slow down due to a higher base, with GDP growth forecasted at 2.2% in the first half and accelerating to 2.9% in the second half, resulting in an annual growth of 2.5% [1] Group 2 - Citigroup anticipates that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year will help keep HIBOR at low levels, supporting a 3% increase in Hong Kong residential prices, while commercial properties will continue to face pressure [3] - The Hang Seng Index is predicted to rise to 27,500 points by mid-next year and potentially reach 28,800 points by the end of the year [3] - Two major risk factors identified are ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the accelerated integration between Hong Kong and mainland China, which could lead to increased industry competition, particularly impacting small and medium enterprises and the food and beverage sector with noticeable operational and profit pressures [3]