情绪性杀估值
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0202市场点评:转债:转债何时企稳?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-03 05:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since January 29, the convertible bond market has been significantly adjusted for 3 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 4.75%. The recent adjustment is mainly due to the emotional valuation adjustment caused by the combination of early spring rally over - anticipation, high valuation, unexpected redemptions of convertible bonds approaching forced redemption, and external shocks [4][7]. - The polarization of valuation increases market vulnerability, and this round of adjustment is concentrated in "double - high" varieties. The price adjustment of "double - high" convertible bonds is relatively large, and the short - term risks focus on terms, valuation, and liquidity [4]. - Since September 24, 2024, there have been 4 times when the daily decline of the CSI Convertible Bond Index exceeded 2%. This round of adjustment may be approaching the bottom. It does not mean the end of the slow - bull market but rather the release of the vulnerability accumulated in the short - term rapid rise. After the precious metal volatility stabilizes, convertible bonds may follow the equity market to repair and present a structured differentiation market [4][14][16]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Characteristics of the Current Adjustment - On January 30, the hawkish remarks of the nominee for the Fed Chairman triggered global interest rate and precious metal fluctuations. The A - share index declined, and the convertible bond market adjusted significantly for 3 consecutive trading days from January 29, with a cumulative decline of 4.75%. On February 2, the decline of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was larger than that of the CSI 300 [4][7]. - The adjustment is mainly due to the emotional valuation adjustment caused by the combination of spring rally over - anticipation, high valuation, unexpected redemptions of convertible bonds approaching forced redemption, and external shocks, rather than a systematic credit or liquidity crisis [4][11]. - The adjustment is concentrated in "double - high" varieties. The price adjustment of convertible bonds with high price and high premium is large, and the adjustment range of equity - like convertible bonds > balanced > debt - like. The short - term risks focus on terms, valuation, and liquidity [4][11]. 2. How Did the Historical Reference Market Evolve? - The first adjustment occurred on October 9, 2024. After the market's 6 - day consecutive rise from September 24 to October 8, 2024, with a CSI Convertible Bond Index increase of 10.29% during the period, profit - taking pressure led to an emotional reversal. The daily decline on October 9 was 3.75%, and the decline from October 9 - 11 was 4.63% [4][14]. - The second adjustment on April 7, 2025, was due to the unexpected implementation of the US "reciprocal tariffs" on China. The index declined by 4.05%. After the adjustment, the market had a strong recovery. However, this adjustment was mainly due to external shocks, and its reference value for the recent adjustment is relatively weak [4][15]. - The third adjustment on August 27, 2025, was also due to the increased market vulnerability during the upward trend. The "net redemption of secondary bond funds" at the end of August triggered a valuation disturbance. The daily decline on August 27 was 2.82%, and the decline from August 27 - September 4 was 4.47% [4][15]. - The decline from January 29 to February 2, 2026, has exceeded the previous three declines. This adjustment is likely the release of short - term vulnerability, and the downward adjustment space may be limited. After the precious metal volatility stabilizes, convertible bonds may follow the equity market to repair [16].