Market Review - The equity market has steadily risen, leading to a double boost in convertible bond parity valuation [5][20] - AI has been a continuous theme throughout the year, with a mid-year shift towards anti-involution, resulting in phase-specific performances in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance [9][20] - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds has been analyzed, showing a support for price recovery due to the exit of bottom-tier stocks and the influx of capital [12][20] Trend Analysis - The current bull market is seen as a continuation, with a focus on leveraging subjective advantages to capture changes in performance inflection points [5][20] - The passive investment trend is deepening, with the amount of convertible bonds in products determining market outcomes [16][20] - The relationship between equity and debt markets is crucial, with low interest rates in the bond market and a "small rise" era in the stock market indicating ongoing bullish potential [27][20] Convertible Bond Strategies - Traditional price-based strategies have limited space, with bonds that have a "debt floor" lacking room for growth [15][20] - The "downward adjustment speculation" strategy benefits from issuers lowering conversion prices, enhancing conversion value and bond prices [15][20] - The expansion of convertible bond ETFs and their correlation with market performance highlight the impact of passive investment on market aesthetics [20][20] Investor Behavior - Public funds have become the largest holders of convertible bonds, increasing their holdings significantly, while other institutions have seen declines due to market contraction [43][20] - The shift in investor structure indicates a growing preference for absolute returns, with insurance and brokerage firms reducing their positions during rapid price increases [40][20]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出,百元估 40% 转债周度跟踪 20251121 1. 周观点及展望 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 表 1: 本周百元估值表现偏强,再度逼近前高 | 百元溢价率估值 | 最新値 | 単周变化 | 2017 以来分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 保留异常点 | | | 全样本 | 39.6% | 3.5% | 97.6% | | AA+(含)以上 | 30.8% | 2.4% | 100.0% | | AA(含)以下 | 40.7% | 3.6% | 96.3% | | | | 去除异常点 | | | 全样本 | 30.5% | 0.6% | 99.8% | | ...

相关研究 2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出，百元估值逼近 40% ——转债周度跟踪 20251121 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 在转债市场再度逼近 8 月底高点的背景下，本周再度发生明显回撤，8 月底至今转债指数 形成"双顶"格局，微盘股回撤较大。与 8 月底相比，本轮转债市场的抗跌性要明显强 于 8 月底，估值表现较强，百元溢价率估值逼近 40%、明显超过 8 月底高点，或与两方 面因素有关：一是本轮修复行情中高价转债价格和估值都明显偏弱，因此高价区通过估值 逆向支撑起到了较好的安全垫作用；二是从两只 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that shareholders of Huaya Intelligent plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [1] Group 2 - Various convertible bonds are listed with their respective details, including codes, names, types, and announcements regarding adjustments or redemptions [2][6] - Specific convertible bonds are highlighted with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [5][8]

新华财经上海11月20日电 2025年以来，转债市场呈现出"股性主导、供需收紧、估值高位"的格局。展 望2026年，转债市场能否继续布局？随着投资环境的变化，该市场的收益与风险博弈会否进一步加剧？ 股性驱动特征显著 可以看到，近期转债市场表现延续了强势基调，同时呈现出了鲜明的结构性特征，而"股性主导、供需 失衡"更是成为了核心标签。 公开数据显示，中证转债指数上周五（11月14日）报收491.71点，周内一度突破8月高点，市场整体估 值处于历史极高水平，百元溢价率分位数达98.5%。 另外，自2024年9月以来，中证转债指数跟随权益市场走强，累计涨幅已超34%，2025年的年内涨幅也 达到了18%以上。 "当前，转债市场供给规模的持续萎缩值得关注。"一位券商交易员告诉记者，"2025年，转债市场的整 体规模较年初收缩约2100亿元，当前存量仅在5748亿元左右。未来一年，还有约78只转债到期，总规模 涉及约928亿元，叠加部分机构的强赎意愿抬升，而新发项目储备不足，届时市场规模可能向4000亿元 以下演绎，较2022年至2023年的水平萎缩一半。再就需求端来看，受益于'资产荒'影响，现阶段'固收 +'的资金配 ...

资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡 （三）大宗商品 【内容摘要】11 月 18 日，资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债 个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄组失业率数据】11 月 18 日，国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄 组失业率数据。10 月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3%，不包含在 校生的 25-29 岁劳动力失业率为 7.2%，不包含在校生的 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8%。 【"两重"项目持续加力，基建投资增速料提升】近期，多个"两重"建设项目陆续开工。"两 重"是指国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。日前召开的国务院常务会议提出，要把 "两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进，牢牢把握战略性、前瞻性、全局性要求，强 化部门协同，注重软硬结合，推动国家重大战略深入实施、重点领域安全能力稳步提升。 【北京：鼓励符合条件的科创企业通过债券市场募集资金】11 月 18 日，央行北京市分行等 12 部门印发《金融支持北京市提振和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with various fixed-income products experiencing an increase in net value, particularly those with embedded options, indicating a favorable investment environment for fixed-income strategies [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance Review - Over the past month, the bond market has further recovered, with net values of fixed-income products rising. The performance ranking of products is as follows: - Option-embedded bond funds: 0.83% (previously 0.21%) - Medium to long-term bond funds: 0.35% (previously 0.12%) - Short-term bond funds: 0.22% (previously 0.12%) - High-grade interbank certificate index: 0.15% (unchanged) - Cash management products: 0.10% (unchanged) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market sentiment has improved, with mid to long-term bonds outperforming short-term bonds. The yield curve has slightly flattened, influenced by two main factors: 1. Economic headwinds have increased, with consumption and investment slowing down, which is favorable for the bond market. 2. The central bank has resumed bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a decline in bond market interest rates [11][12][18]. Market Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: - Interbank certificate rates are expected to stabilize and decline slightly. The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a focus on trading opportunities [11][31]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: - Economic recovery expectations are likely to continue, with funds remaining relatively abundant, leading to a potential range-bound market for bonds. The 10-year government bond yield may face upward pressure but within a limited range [11][31]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, it is advisable to maintain cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility wealth management and short-term bond funds [41][42]. - For conservative investors, it is recommended to continue holding pure bond products, with the possibility of profit-taking if economic pressures increase and monetary easing expectations rise [43]. - For more aggressive investors, it is suggested to consider allocating to fixed-income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, as liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample [45]. Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory changes include the introduction of guidelines to promote the healthy development of pension wealth management and the asset management trust management measures, which aim to enhance the investment capabilities of institutions and improve the overall market structure [38][39].

固收-金融数据背后，降息预期和机构行为的长期变化 20251116 摘要 摊余成本法基金增配普信和商金，占比超七成，政金债配置比例显著下 降至 13.7%，主要因短端利率较低，机构寻求更高收益资产。 预计至 2026 年底，摊余成本法基金剩余到期规模达 7,444 亿元，对普 信和商金的增量资金需求预计分别为 2002 亿和 1,362 亿，市场需求显 著增加。 机构偏好高等级央国企产业债及头部城商行金融债，如诚通、国新、平 安银行等，信用风险较低，主要关注估值波动。 社融信贷增速放缓，直接融资占比提升，央行强调结构优化而非快速刺 激，中长期或打开利率震荡区间下限，短期不利于降息预期。 央行或更关注政府杠杆和国债发行成本，债市赔率预期转为风险可控， 旨在理顺利率比价关系，避免金融机构内卷式竞争。 信贷增速放缓可能导致银行资产负债表收缩，但历史数据显示，银行扩 张速度放缓时期，10 年期国债与 1 年期国债及 1 年存单利差有所回升， 预计 2026 年 1-2 季度存单利率可能降至 1.5%。 转债市场面临供需压力，新增供给相对较小，但正股表现强势及资金流 入形成正循环，估值难以长期压缩，整体下行空间有限，上 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with attempts to break out of the range but lacking decisive upward momentum. The total A-share index closed at 6356.50 on November 14, down 0.47% from November 7, while convertible bonds rose by 0.52 during the same period [1][9] - The semiconductor and AI computing indices have been in continuous adjustment since October 9, with declines of 11.05% and 9.37% respectively as of November 14. This adjustment has led to a significant decrease in market congestion, indicating a potential rebound opportunity when favorable conditions arise [2][44] - The valuation of convertible bonds has seen significant stretching, with the valuation center for bonds at a parity of 80 yuan rising to 54.64%, an increase of 1.75 percentage points from November 7. This suggests that the market is currently valuing convertible bonds at historically high levels [23][27] Group 2 - The report highlights the need to focus on the semiconductor and AI computing sectors for potential rebound opportunities, as these sectors have shown significant adjustments and reduced congestion levels, making them more susceptible to upward movements when positive news emerges [2][44] - In a bull market environment, convertible bonds that do not undergo forced redemption tend to experience significant valuation recovery after the T+1 day. Conversely, those that do face forced redemption typically see an average decline of 3% on the T+1 day, but recovery is still possible in a bull market [3][61] - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a search for new leading sectors, with consumer and new energy sectors being tested for strength. However, the sustainability of these sectors remains uncertain as they have not yet established a solid upward trend [1][16]