华泰证券研报称，当前债市票息保护弱、重博弈、情绪驱动强，投资体验"事倍功半"。短期债市仍处逆 风，但利率大概率"上有顶"。短期维持十年国债老券上限在1.8%附近（配置盘开始关注），极限位置是 1.9%（交易盘介入），潜在超调风险仍来自于机构行为。时间上，十月份之后（供给淡季+情绪拐点 +消费等高基数）再寻找"反攻"机会。资金面持续收紧风险不大，继续推荐曲线陡峭化交易。品种上， 30年国债、二永债等品种容易成为情绪放大器，建议暂时规避。5-7年及以下利率债品种兼具防守特 性，杠杆套息浅尝辄止。信用债以中短端为主，3-5年普通信用债经过本轮下跌后初具性价比。转债保 持权益β暴露。 ...

债市何时回调到位 20250824 摘要 A 股市场面临多重利好，包括全球流动性宽松预期、业绩风险释放、外 部压力缓解、科技产业催化以及资金入场形成正循环，为权益市场带来 上涨动力。 转债市场供需紧平衡加剧，存量转债加速强赎退出，新券供给不足，而 机构投资者对转债的刚性配置需求强烈，转债 ETF 规模显著增长，表明 机构加仓意愿强烈。 转债价格中位数突破 135 元，估值处于历史高位，但考虑到权益市场慢 牛预期、中小盘股票及科技板块的上涨空间以及专业机构投资者占比提 升，估值仍有上行空间。 建议采取哑铃型转债投资策略，一方面关注偏股型优质标的，如 AI 算力、 半导体等科技成长赛道；另一方面选择低价、具备下修博弈潜力或偏大 盘底仓品种，以博取整体收益。 债市回调主因是市场预期变化而非经济数据回暖，可通过观察 30 年-10 年期国债利差收窄、地方债和超长债交投热度增加以及 2024 年底过度 预期回吐程度来判断回调是否到位。 Q&A 请问过去一周转债市场的表现如何？ 过去一周，权益市场加速上行，上证指数从突破 3,700 点到 3,800 点仅用了一 周时间，创下十年新高。两市成交额维持在 2.4 万亿以上， ...

债 券 研 究 债 券 周 评 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 (8621)23297818× xuya@swsresearch.com 2025 年 08 月 23 日 转债百元估值向 40%迈进 ——转债周度跟踪 20250822 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 随着权益市场持续破位上行，市场赚钱效应与资金持续涌入形成正向循环，"牛市预期" 逐步夯实，转债跟随正股同步上行。与权益市场相比，转债本身还面临供需错配的环境， 牛市中转债强赎退出数量提升导致供给减少，而固收+持续扩容导致转债需求大幅提升， 推动转债估值持续上行，目前转债百元估值向 40%左右的历史最高水平迈进。考虑低价 品种估值明显偏高，且强赎概率大，集中转股压力下，价格上限打开难度较大，整体来看 继续上涨空间有限。而高价低溢价率品种则有望充分释放牛市弹性，加之小盘科技风格占 优，股性品种或成市场重点博 ...

固收：强预期高估值，转债如何赚取超额？20250819 摘要 股票市场成交量持续抬升，增量资金入场，混合型和指数型基金扩容， 动量效应增强，电子、AI 等板块表现良好，预计转债估值将进一步上升， 股性策略表现突出。 银行转债到期或临近到期，部分资金可能流向光伏、化工等反内卷板块， 以及银行内部结构调仓带来的增量资金，这些行业成为银行增量资金的 新去向。 主要机构投资者持仓占比未显著上升，但自然人和一般机构占比下降， 表明私募、券商等其他类型投资者参与抢筹，整体估值上行仍受增量资 金支撑。 股性策略表现最强，基因增配策略如电子医药军工中小盘标的也表现良 好，而高 YT 和基因低配策略表现较弱。配置集中在热门方向反内卷及 弹性中小盘转债。 股性转债溢价率相对平衡转债较低，仍有上升空间。双高转债数量处于 相对低位，股票市场预期尚未达到极值，股性转债具有超额收益潜力。 绝对收益投资者关注基因低配置和低拥挤度指标筛选冷门转债，以及高 a 天策略和双低策略，例如关注 80 评价以下、溢价率较低的标的。 推荐化工类平衡转债如杭氧、丰二、一阳、丰天业，以及中小盘正股相 关标的如科顺海顺、启帆天能。关注银行类兴业浦发重银以及钢 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current economic environment shows weak loan demand and a decline in interest rate cut expectations, with fiscal policy becoming the main economic driver [1][4] - The financial industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, with new loans in July falling significantly below seasonal expectations, potentially leading to bank balance sheet contraction [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Loan Demand and Credit Market**: The increase in social financing is primarily driven by government financing, while loan growth is declining year-on-year, indicating weak market demand for loans [3][4] - **Government's Role**: The government is increasingly seen as a key economic driver, with fiscal flexibility taking precedence over large-scale interest rate cuts [4][7] - **Bank Balance Sheets**: Contraction in bank balance sheets due to limited bonds and loans will reduce the availability of quality investment assets, leading to a scarcity of investment opportunities [1][5] - **Interest Rate Policies**: The subsidy policy aims to lower loan rates but is not functioning smoothly, leading to cautious expectations for the bond market in the second half of the year [1][6] - **Monetary Policy Focus**: The current monetary policy emphasizes direct support for the real economy rather than relying on interbank market liquidity or significant interest rate cuts [7][9] Financial Data Insights - **M2 and M1 Growth**: M2 growth increased from 8.3% to 8.8%, while M1 showed significant changes, reflecting a shift in residents' risk preferences towards risk assets [8] - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces challenges from expected fluctuations and a lack of strong supportive factors, with potential adjustments in the 10-year treasury yield expected to be around 30-40 basis points [9][10] Investment Opportunities - **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is currently weak, but structural opportunities exist, particularly in technology innovation bonds and green finance bonds [2][13][16] - **Green Finance Bonds**: There is a noticeable shift from green credit bonds to green finance bonds, with increased demand from institutions like insurance companies [14][15] - **Future Outlook for Credit Bonds**: The outlook for thematic credit bonds remains positive, especially for technology and green finance, supported by policy changes and competitive issuance costs [16] Market Trends and Strategies - **Yield Curve Expectations**: The yield curve for government bonds is expected to remain weak with upward pressure, suggesting that structural strategies may be more advantageous than simply expecting a downward shift [10][11] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Focus on technology growth sectors and stable industries such as public utilities and traditional cyclical sectors for stable returns [20] Additional Insights - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market is nearing historical valuation extremes, with limited upward price potential unless driven by equity market changes [18] - **Strong Redemption Impact**: Strong redemptions have led to price declines in convertible bonds, emphasizing the need to monitor high premium bonds to avoid forced redemptions [19]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月17日 转债市场周报 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+1.60%，价 格中位数+1.15%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+3.36%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.44%。个券层面，欧通（数据中心电源）、大元（液 冷服务器概念）、金铜（PEEK 材料）、微芯（创新药）、游族（游戏概 念）转债涨幅靠前；信测（机器人&已公告强赎）、景 23（pcb）、高测 （光伏&已公告强赎）、应急（军工&已公告强赎）、设研（雅下水电概 念）转债跌幅靠前。 观点及策略（8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日） 上周转债市场跟随权益市场继续上涨，且多数平价区间转债估值均有所 抬升，市场平均价格接近 149 元，中位数突破前高再度上升至 131 元； 全周超 350 只个券收涨，其中涨幅靠前的多为强势跟涨的低溢价率品种； 两只转债 ETF 规模继续扩张超 40 亿元。 近日中美关税暂缓期延长 90 天、外部风险有所缓释；《个人消费贷款 财政贴息政策实施方案》发布、证监会表态"不会出现 IPO 大规模扩容 情况"，内部政策环境依旧偏利好；且 AI、机器人等产业端催化不断， "反内卷 ...

还有哪些转债"进可攻，退可守"？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.08.17 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 税期资金波动怎么看？》 2025-08-16 2. 《高频｜北京楼市边际回暖，出行动能回 升》 2025-08-16 3. 《利率｜再提"防空转"意味着什么？》 2025-08-16 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 高估值环境下，部分固收类型投资者出现类似"畏高"情绪。由于产品 属性缘故，固收类型投资者天然对回撤敏感，而转债高估值意味着未来可能 存在的潜在回撤。尤其是在今年前 7 个月已经通过含权资产获得丰厚收益的 机构，则更希望有机会能够在充分参与后市权益行情的情况下锁定已有回报。 ❖ 基于我们此前的报告，转债凸性类似债券凸性，能够在正股涨时增厚 收益，在正股跌时对冲跌幅，因此高凸性转债能更好的发挥转 ...

2025年08月16日 ■性继续释放，转债涨幅超正股 转债周度跟踪 20250815 ● 1. 周观点及展望 Eles of 35 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com (2) 对于高弹基本面与高价结合的转债：此类转债也是传统的高平价、高价转债， 波动水平较大，但由于基本面有支撑，也是目前转债市场中最有弹性的品种。2025 年 Q2 高价转债表现相对受限，估值水平整体不高，强赎风险压制较为明显。但是高价转 债正股基本面相对较好，基本面支撑逻辑顺畅，转债的空间有望进一步打开，在当前 风偏较高的背景下，或是转债配置最优解，Q3 以来高价转债弹性已逐步释放。此类转 债即使发布强赎公告,在负债端充裕的背景下,预计对转债价格的影响也较为可控。 联系人 徐亚 (8621)23297818× xuya@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 转债 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The recent decline in the bond market is primarily influenced by short-term factors such as policy expectations and stock market performance, but does not provide a basis for significant interest rate adjustments. The overall market has not shown significant negative signals [1][2] - Various institutions exhibit different buying behaviors towards interest rate bonds, with banks continuing to purchase bonds with maturities of 10 years or less, while non-bank institutions show net buying for bonds with maturities over 7 years, albeit with a cautious outlook [3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Credit Bonds**: Insurance, wealth management, and public funds have increased their holdings in credit bonds significantly compared to previous peak levels, indicating relative optimism towards credit risk and highlighting the investment value of credit bonds [1][3] - **Macroeconomic Uncertainty**: There is notable uncertainty in the macroeconomic landscape, particularly regarding US-China relations, stock market performance, inflation pressures, and central bank monetary policy direction. If the central bank does not pursue further easing, interest rates may remain volatile [4][5] - **Investment Strategy**: In the current volatile market, investors are advised to focus on credit bonds for their coupon yields and to view market adjustments as buying opportunities. Continuous monitoring of monetary policy changes is essential [6] Inflation Concerns - Inflation pressures are rising due to various factors, including changes in total demand and US-China relations, but these factors are not yet sufficient to trigger widespread inflation risks. Close attention to relevant data and policy dynamics is necessary for timely investment strategy adjustments [7] - If inflation stabilizes and rises, it could impact the bond market through increased total demand and corporate profit growth, potentially leading to higher interest rates. However, current total demand remains uncertain, and thus, there is no immediate concern for significant interest rate increases [8] Convertible Bond Market - The valuation of new convertible bonds is higher than older ones, with the median price of convertible bonds stabilizing above 130 yuan. The market shows a strong preference for new bonds, which still hold investment potential [9][10] - Recent data indicates that the proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds is at a historical high, reflecting strong demand from fixed-income funds for new bonds due to limited liquidity in older bonds [10] Investment Opportunities in Convertible Bonds - Suggested focus on low-priced convertible bonds, particularly those priced below 120 yuan, as they have limited availability and potential for appreciation. Additionally, thematic bonds related to AI and technology, as well as anti-involution themes, are highlighted for their investment potential [11][12] - Many AI-related bonds have seen their price-to-earnings ratios drop to 2025 lows, indicating significant room for valuation increases with minimal risk of forced redemption [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in China, focusing on fixed income strategies and the impact of macroeconomic factors on various asset classes, including stocks and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Performance** - In July, the bond market faced pressure from risk appetite, leading to rising interest rates, although the fundamentals and liquidity remained supportive. The overall sentiment in the bond market stabilized quickly despite the adjustments, with credit bonds showing relatively minor adjustment pressure [1][4][8]. 2. **Government Policies and Market Reactions** - The introduction of the 924 policy in September led to a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, causing significant redemption pressures on bond funds and wealth management products [10][20]. The policy aimed at stabilizing growth and capital markets had a notable impact on market dynamics. 3. **Yield Curve Dynamics** - The current yield curve is characterized by a bear steepening pattern, with short-term rates rising less than medium to long-term rates. This reflects the influence of growth stabilization and inflation expectations [6][12]. 4. **Credit Bonds Performance** - Credit bonds exhibited less adjustment pressure compared to interest rate bonds, indicating investor confidence in credit products despite rising yields [8][19]. 5. **Economic Fundamentals and Policy Effects** - The basic economic fundamentals are weak, with a notable decline in domestic demand since June. However, the anti-involution policies may provide some support to nominal prices, albeit with a lag in their effects on actual GDP growth [13][15][16]. 6. **Market Risks and Adjustments** - The current economic downturn and rising unemployment pose risks of negative feedback loops, particularly affecting the real estate market and potentially leading to price increases [15]. The anticipated impact on PPI is estimated to be around 2-3 percentage points, while the effect on CPI is less pronounced [15]. 7. **Valuation of Convertible Bonds** - The convertible bond market is currently at historical high valuations, with new bond pricing being expensive. The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is approaching a critical resistance level of 3,700 points [22][25]. 8. **Investment Strategies and Recommendations** - For August, the overall market adjustment risk is deemed controllable, with recommendations to adopt a tactical approach focusing on trading opportunities and maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration assets [20][21]. The emphasis is on a "yield strategy" and monitoring the performance of high-grade bonds [21]. 9. **Impact of Tax Adjustments** - The implementation of VAT adjustments has created pricing discrepancies between new and old bonds, but the overall impact on long-term bonds is expected to be minimal [18]. 10. **Future Market Outlook** - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of potential upward pressure on yields in the coming months. The focus should be on maintaining a yield strategy while being wary of capital loss risks associated with long-duration bonds [48]. Additional Important Insights - The bond market's response to regulatory changes and macroeconomic policies is critical for understanding future trends. The interplay between fiscal policies in the U.S. and global asset pricing is also highlighted, indicating a need for vigilance regarding potential impacts on investment strategies [2][39][45]. - The performance of the newly launched science and technology bonds ETFs is noted, with a significant increase in scale despite recent market adjustments, indicating a growing interest in this segment [50][57][64]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the bond market and related investment strategies.