慢牛思维

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机构论后市丨市场风格进入震荡期;关注结构性配置机会
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 09:57
Group 1 - The market is entering a period of fluctuation, focusing on sectors with defined industrial trends and less external disturbance [1] - In August, the market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with attention on structural allocation opportunities [1][2] - The current market rally is driven by liquidity and market expectations, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [2] Group 2 - The market is likely transitioning from a "turning point" trading phase to a "space" trading phase, indicating a gradual shift in market dynamics [2] - There is a focus on low-position technology sectors, with cyclical stocks being key to the index's strength [2] - China’s assets remain attractive, with expectations for a market style leaning towards cyclical sectors in August [3]
东吴证券:慢牛思维下,行情有望逐步过渡至空间交易阶段
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 09:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) has shown strong fluctuations in July, breaking through the 3600-point mark and reaching new highs, reflecting a consensus on the stabilization of the profit cycle [1] Market Analysis - The current strength of the SHCI is primarily attributed to the market's consensus on the bottoming out and stabilization of the profit cycle, influenced by the "anti-involution + demand expansion" policy combination introduced in 2016, which led to a rapid completion of the turning point trading [1] - The current liquidity level is relatively abundant, providing a foundation for quick pricing, suggesting that the transition from turning point trading to space trading will not happen overnight, and the market is likely to experience a period of consolidation [1] Investment Strategy - Some funds may preemptively position themselves based on space trading logic, absorbing shares as the SHCI enters a new operational center [1] - After quickly realizing profits, funds that participated in turning point trading may seek to cash out, leading to potential market fluctuations as it consolidates [1] - A gradual transition to space trading is anticipated as the market digests short-term profit-taking and rebuilds consensus on profit space logic [1] Sector Focus - The cyclical weight has been a key driver for the index's strength, with pro-cyclical sectors providing a platform for continued growth [1] - Attention is drawn to the low-end pan-technology sector, which may present opportunities as certain branches have already shown significant excess returns, indicating a potential shift from high to low [1]