中信证券研报称，在流动性改善、地缘扰动、AI泡沫短期无虞三重因素下，亚洲股市更需聚焦基本面 线索变化带来的结构性配置机会。美联储12月降息预期反转缓解亚洲市场宏观压力，而全球GPR指数高 位运行下中日对峙、俄乌冲突等构成阶段性扰动，AI领域现金流支撑与供应链瓶颈使极端泡沫叙事难 现。具体市场核心观点如下。1）A股：需基本面超预期突破，配置上建议聚焦资源/传统制造业定价权 重估与企业出海主线，关注低拥挤品种与红利标的。2）港股：受益内外部催化有望实现戴维斯双击， 建议侧重科技、医疗、资源品等五大方向。3）韩国股市：依托基本面、政策与流动性推动重估，建议 重点关注半导体/AI等行业。4）印度股市：具备补涨潜力，货币政策宽松背景下建议优先配置利率敏感 型企业与消费板块，逆向看多IT服务。5）日本股市：受益治理红利与外资增配，聚焦行业整合、资产 重估等四大方向。6）东南亚股市：呈现复苏态势，马来西亚建议关注AI与数据中心产业链；印尼建议 聚焦消费与新能源汽车；泰国建议首选消费和旅游板块，整体需密切跟踪宏观变量与政策动向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,800 points, while the MSCI China A50 Connect Index is undergoing a correction, down approximately 1.7% [1] Market Performance - The market remains active with strong trading volumes, supported by continuous capital inflow and rising policy expectations [1] - Key stocks leading the market include Luxshare Precision (002475) and China Shipbuilding, while Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information are lagging [1] External Environment - The external environment is relatively stable, with a high expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, which is favorable for the equity market [1] - The reshaping of global capital flows is also seen as beneficial for the A-share market [1] Investment Opportunities - The upward trend of the A-share market is expected to continue, with market hotspots likely to remain in a rotation phase, indicating structural allocation opportunities [1] - A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a diversified exposure to 50 leading stocks in the A-share market, making it a preferred choice for both domestic and foreign investors [1] - The MSCI China A50 Connect Index emphasizes liquidity and industry balance during its compilation, showcasing significant large-cap characteristics compared to other indices [1]

Group 1 - The market is entering a period of fluctuation, focusing on sectors with defined industrial trends and less external disturbance [1] - In August, the market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with attention on structural allocation opportunities [1][2] - The current market rally is driven by liquidity and market expectations, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [2] Group 2 - The market is likely transitioning from a "turning point" trading phase to a "space" trading phase, indicating a gradual shift in market dynamics [2] - There is a focus on low-position technology sectors, with cyclical stocks being key to the index's strength [2] - China’s assets remain attractive, with expectations for a market style leaning towards cyclical sectors in August [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year, driven by liquidity and market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The financing balance has been steadily increasing since the end of June, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan [1] - The rising stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, creating a positive feedback loop [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention is required on the market's support strength near key levels, with an expectation for the market to maintain a high-level oscillation in August [1] - Structural allocation opportunities should be monitored [1]