成交热度

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5月新房供应“提质”,将助力一线成交热度延续?
智通财经网· 2025-05-03 02:22
Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39%, indicating increasing constraints on supply [2][12]. Supply Overview - The overall supply volume in May was 5.67 million square meters, down 36% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 24% for the first five months [2][12]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu saw substantial supply reductions, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing near stagnation in new supply [3][12]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities showed a steady decline, with a month-on-month drop exceeding 40%. Beijing's supply remained stable compared to last year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen's supply fell below 200,000 square meters [3][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Cities like Ningbo and Kunming saw temporary increases in supply [3][12]. - Third and fourth-tier cities faced a complete contraction in supply, with some cities reporting zero new supply, indicating a "passive clearance" phase in the market [3][12]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 37% for basic needs, 47% for improvement, and 16% for high-end properties [6][9]. - More than half of the cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with a significant focus on improvement products [6][9]. Market Outlook - The expectation for the market is a "quality improvement" in supply, which may support a slight increase in transaction volumes in May, with a likely month-on-month increase and year-on-year stability [12][13]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 31%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8 percentage points but stable compared to last year [12][13].