[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】商业银行大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持——2026 年 1 月份债券托管量 数据点评 截至 2026 年 1 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为 179.31 万亿元，环比净 增 0.76 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月末环比多增 0.46 万亿元。分品种看托管总量，利率 债、信用债环比净增，金融债、同业存单环比净减。从本月债市各机构对主要券种的 持仓总量来看，配置盘均表现为增配；交易盘中证券公司增配、非法人类产品持续减 配；境外机构持续减配。 行业研究 【房地产】1 月核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟 踪（2026 年 1 月）(增持) 1 月光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交金额为 1,859 亿元，同比-28.7%，成交 均价为 24,285 元/㎡，同比-4.8%。核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14.3%，一线城 市成交均价同比-9.8%。2026 开年《求是》集中刊文，明确改善和稳定房地产预期， 随着供给侧逐步出清，优质龙头受益于竞争结构优化，有望实现经营业绩企稳 ...

（来源：中国消费者报） ■本报记者 孙蔚 近日，国家统计局公布2026年1月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况，数据显示，1月份70个大中城市商品住 宅销售价格环比降幅总体收窄、同比下降。 环比来看，1月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其中，上海持 平，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.6%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%， 降幅收窄0.1个百分点。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。 1月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，北京、上海、 广州和深圳分别下降0.2%、0.4%、0.7%和0.6%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比分别下降0.5%和 0.6%，降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.1个百分点。 业内人士预计，2026年上半年房地产政策的大方向不会发生变化，仍将以稳市场、稳预期为核心，延续 因城施策、供需两端精准发力的思路，并且政策会更关注长效作用。"一季度市场是关键，虽然1月份二 手房找房热度逆势回升，不少城市成交量持续上升，似乎市场已完成筑底，但目前稳定性仍不牢固，春 节后政策效果 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日 行业研究 1 月核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14% ——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2026 年 1 月） 要点 新房：1 月核心 30 城新房成交面积同比-25.1%，成交均价同比-4.8%。 1）2026 年 1 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交金额为 1,859 亿元， 同比-28.7%，环比-33.2%；其中北上广深杭蓉成交金额 995 亿元，同比-32.7%， 环比-30.6%，余下二线 24 城成交金额 864 亿元，同比-23.4%，环比-36.0%。 2）2026 年 1 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 765 万㎡，同 比-25.1%，环比-33.4%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 237 万㎡，同比-32.6%， 环比-30.3%，余下二线 24 城成交面积 528 万㎡，同比-21.2%，环比-34.7%。 3）2026 年 1 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交均价为 24,285 元/㎡， 同比-4.8%，环比+0.3%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交均价 41,975 元/㎡，同比-0.3%， 环比-0.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of structural adjustment and stabilization, with a gradual recovery in housing prices across major cities as demand resilience becomes evident [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - In January 2026, housing prices in 70 major cities showed a narrowing decline, indicating a positive shift in the market [1]. - The second-tier cities experienced a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in new home prices, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - First-tier cities saw a 0.5% decline in second-hand home prices, with the drop narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Continuous policy efforts and orderly demand release are stabilizing the market fundamentals, with various local governments implementing supportive measures [1]. - The extension of the housing tax rebate policy and the support for urban renewal are contributing to increased market activity, particularly in core cities [2][3]. - The number of cities where new home prices have stopped declining has increased to 12, indicating a broader recovery in the new housing market [3]. Group 3: Regional Developments - Shanghai's second-hand housing market has shown significant activity, with January transactions reaching 22,834 units, the highest in five years for the same period [3]. - New first-tier and key second-tier cities are experiencing a stabilization in new home prices, with cities like Wuhan and Qingdao showing increased market activity [3]. - The trend of improving housing quality and supply is becoming evident, with more cities signaling structural stabilization in housing prices [3].

国家统计局日前发布2026年1月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，2026年1月份， 70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比降幅总体收窄、同比下降。其中，一线城市二手住宅价格环比跌幅 收窄最为明显，较上月缩小0.4个百分点至0.5%，显示核心城市二手房市场调整速度放缓。二、三线城 市二手住宅销售价格环比降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.1个百分点。 环比价格跌幅明显收窄二手房出现阶段性企稳行情 从环比看，1月份，一线城市新建商品住宅价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月持平。二线城市降幅收窄0.1 个百分点至0.3%，三线城市环比降幅为0.4%，与上月相同。 二手房方面，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。二、三线城市 二手住宅销售价格环比分别下降0.5%和0.6%，降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.1个百分点。 "1月份，由于开发商完成全年业绩，新房进入季节性淡季，加上部分需求转向二手住房，新房交易环比 下跌明显。"广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析认为，二手房价格环比跌幅收窄明显，出 现阶段性企稳行情。 "目前最值得关注的就是一线城市二手房的环比价格走势，已经呈现了比较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government is sending strong signals regarding the real estate market as it enters the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing the needs of millions of families [1][5][29] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent statements from the founder of Fuyao Glass, Cao Dewang, emphasize the need for caution among ordinary people when buying homes, as subtle changes in national statistics create confusion about whether to buy or sell [3][29] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) focusing on high-quality development and new models in 2026 [5][9] - The current policy approach balances stability and transition, aiming to prevent market risks while addressing public needs, with a focus on "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [7][9] Group 2: Price Trends and Regional Disparities - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a slowing decline in housing prices across 70 major cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.3% decrease in new residential prices and a narrowing decline in second-hand homes [9][11] - The real estate market is characterized by increasing regional disparities, with core cities maintaining price stability while third- and fourth-tier cities face significant inventory pressures [13][15] - The demand for housing is shifting, with improved housing needs becoming more prominent, as the proportion of improvement-driven demand is expected to exceed 60% in 2026 [19][21] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The cost of holding properties is rising, with many homeowners facing increased financial burdens due to maintenance and operational costs, which can reach thousands of yuan annually for a 100㎡ property [23][25] - The average rental prices have decreased by 10%-15%, particularly in third- and fourth-tier cities, making the "rent-to-own" model increasingly unviable [25][27] - Investors are advised to focus on core cities and premium properties, as the era of speculative price increases has ended, and only high-quality assets in prime locations are likely to retain value [27][29]

2026 年马年开年，中国楼市迎来四年调整后的标志性转折，"全国涨声四起" 并非空穴来风，而是政策 底、市场底、资金底三重力量共振的必然结果。国家统计局 2 月数据显示，70 个大中城市商品住宅价 格环比降幅全面收窄，一线城市二手住宅降幅收窄 0.4 个百分点，二线、三线城市分别收窄 0.2 个和 0.1 个百分点，止跌回升趋势已明确显现。这一反转背后，是政策、市场、资金的系统性发力。 政策层面实现从 "微调" 到 "强托底" 的质变。与以往 "添油战术" 不同，2026 年作为 "十五五" 开局之 年，中央明确提出 "政策一次性给足"，住建部部署 "稳市场、防风险、优供给、促转型" 四大目标，标 志着调控思路转向构建房地产发展新模式。截至 1 月，全国超 60 个城市出台优化政策，金融支持力度 空前：首套房贷利率降至 3.5%-4% 区间，部分城市进入 "2 字头"，首付比例最低 15%，公积金贷款额 度大幅提升；税费优惠精准落地，换购住房个税退税延续至 2027 年，不足 2 年住房增值税率从 5% 降 至 3%，一套 500 万房产可省近 10 万元税费，有效激活 "卖旧买新" 链条。供给端更出现突破性 ...

Core Insights - The overall decline in housing prices in 70 major cities has slowed down, with first-tier cities showing a notable reduction in the rate of decline for second-hand housing prices [1][10][11]. Price Trends - In January, the new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [8]. - The second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.5%, but this decline was 0.4 percentage points less than the previous month [10]. - Second-tier cities experienced a decline of 0.3%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.4%, with both showing a slight reduction in their rates of decline [9]. Year-on-Year Changes - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a price drop of 2.1%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [12]. - Second-tier cities experienced a 2.9% decline, and third-tier cities saw a 3.9% drop, with both categories also showing an increase in their rates of decline [13]. Market Activity - In January, five cities reported an increase in new residential property prices, with Dalian leading at a 0.2% increase, while major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [6]. - The second-hand housing market showed some resilience, with cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang reporting increases of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while major cities continued to see declines [6]. Expert Analysis - Experts suggest that January's market activity reflects a seasonal slowdown, with a shift in demand towards second-hand housing, leading to a more stable price trend in that segment [11][18]. - The first-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization in second-hand housing prices, which could serve as a positive indicator for the overall market [11][18].

每经记者｜陈利 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈梦妤 楼市止跌信号越来越明显了。 2月13日，国家统计局公布的2026年1月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况显示，一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比降幅总体收窄。 其中，1月有5城新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨，大连涨0.2%领跑；北京、广州、深圳环比分别跌0.3%、跌0.6%和跌0.4%，上海环比持平。 "房价延续结构性调整、筑底修复的核心特征，整体虽未摆脱普跌格局，但需求端韧性凸显、流通端积极信号增多，楼市正向企稳修复稳步过渡，政策托 底与市场自发修复的双重作用逐步显现。"58安居客研究院院长张波向《每日经济新闻》记者书面分析指出，尤其是1月核心城市二手房率先企稳，是政策 因素和市场信心修复共同作用的结果。 上海新房价格同比仍涨 国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华在解读时表示，1月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其中，上海持平，北京、 广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.6%和0.4%。而在此之前，上海新房价格已连续上涨了43个月。 同比来看，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降2.1%，降幅则比上月扩大0.4个百分点。其中，上海上涨4.2 ...