《房价止跌回稳系列三：鉴往知来， 人口不是影响房价唯一因素—行业深 度报告》-2025.9.24 《新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房 地产开发投资同比下降—行业周报》 -2025.9.21 新房成交面积同环比下降，建立可持续城市更新模式 行 业 研 究 2025 年 10 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增长，上海"好 房子"新规落地 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.9.28 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比下降，建立可持续城市更新模式 本周我们跟踪的 ...

8月70城房价数据出炉：优质资产补跌明显，这两个信号值得警惕。国家统计局公布的《2025年8月份70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》。这是一个相对数据，看起来不太直观。就着统计局提供的这 个数据很难看出市场趋势，因此这次我做了一点数据整理，把部分数据转变成图表，帮助大家更加直观 地理解市场趋势。 ...

2025年三季度，整体楼市重回年内低位，新房供求同环比齐降：一方面房企推盘积极性一般，三季度供应量下降约二成，累计同比降幅达18%，一二线高 位回落；另一方面新房成交稳中有降，年中冲刺季之后需求进入疲软期，京沪深8月以来相继出台利好政策助力市场维稳，不过9月新房成交环比增幅仍不 及供应，金九成色一般。二手房增长动能明显放缓，延续震荡走势，一方面挂牌量增价跌，市场信心暂未恢复；另一方面，优质新盘入市也客观上分流了 部分改善客群。 预判四季度，我们认为，政策利好加持+房企推盘频次和营销力度加大，新房成交环比三季度有望稳中有增，维持弱复苏，全年成交降幅有望持稳10%左 右。城市间、项目间分化还将持续加剧。 新增供应同环比降幅约15% 深昆长等一二线逆势增长 2025年三季度供应季节性回落，同环比齐跌，前三季度全国商品住宅供应约束依旧显著：据CRIC监测，7-8月全国110个重点城市新增供应2180万平方 米，同比下降21%，较2025年二季度月均下降26%。 根据30城环比增长55%预估百城数据，9月供应预期达到1599万平方米，三季度环比下降15%，同比下降22%，前三季度累计同比下降约二成。 分能级来看，一二线 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The performance of leading real estate companies declined year-on-year in August 2025, with land acquisition costs amounting to 13.55 billion yuan [6] - The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 21.16% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 4.51% [10] - The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 55.31 billion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% [7] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance in August 2025 - **Market Demand**: The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities was 470,300 m², down 21.16% year-on-year; second-tier cities recorded 313,800 m², down 4.51%; and third-tier cities saw 128,900 m², down 10.76% [10] - **Sales Situation**: The sales revenue of monitored brand real estate companies decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 15.0%. Among the 10 monitored companies, five experienced a year-on-year decline, with the largest drop being 58.9% for Jindi Group [5] - **Land Acquisition**: The total land acquisition cost for monitored brand real estate companies was 13.55 billion yuan, with a total land area of 273,000 m² acquired [6] - **Financing Situation**: The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 55.31 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, with credit bond financing at 30.78 billion yuan, down 18.4% [7] 2. Key Companies' Performance - **Vanke**: In August, Vanke acquired land with a total cost of 156 million yuan and reported a sales revenue of 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7% [43][45] - **China Overseas Property**: This company recorded the highest month-on-month sales increase of 54.9% among the monitored companies [5] - **China Resources Land**: Acquired land with a total area of 19,100 m² and a planning area of 65,300 m² [38] 3. Policy Insights - The report highlights the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting urban renewal, with policies aimed at enhancing housing supply and improving living conditions [12][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" construction and urban renewal is expected to drive future policy support for the real estate sector [24][25]

长沙晚报掌上长沙10月7日讯（通讯员 陈妙琼）随着长沙奥体中心、国家医学中心等重磅项目的落子， 天心区这片热土正迎来价值跃升的关键时刻。根据克而瑞数据显示，2025年1—3月长沙房地产销售榜单 中，天心区商品住宅成交金额8 亿元，在全市九区县中排名第一。2025年1—6月，天心区商品住宅成交 金额38.93亿元，位列第二。这种强劲的市场表现，让天心区的投资价值成为这个国庆黄金周最受关注 的话题之一。 长沙奥体中心项目是南部融城片区的亮点之一，它位于长株潭都市圈发展主阵地——奥体新城解放垸片 区的核心区域。项目北至强体路、东至奥体大道、南临万家丽路、西至湘江大道，与湘江科学城"三 馆"隔江相望，将打造全省规模最大的体育场馆。4月27日，长沙奥体中心正式按下"启动键"。项目建成 后，将填补湖南缺乏6万座以上大型体育场馆的空白，成为驱动长株潭一体化发展的新引擎。 与此同时，国家医学中心的筹建工作也在稳步推进。其核心项目——中南大学湘雅医院新院区（原湘雅 五医院）不仅承担疑难重症诊疗、科研攻关等核心功能，还将联动上下游200余家生物医疗企业，打 造"一核三圈"生命健康产业体系，推动区域医疗技术迭代与产业集聚，为市民构 ...

据了解，凡是认为房地产市场前景不景气、房价走势下降、不建议大家现在和以后买房的这些言论，都被部分地 方政府以及行业协会，视为"唱空"房地产市场的行为，他们认为，这种消极言论，其可能会加剧房地产市场的恐 慌情绪，让老百姓持币观望，导致商品住宅的滞销，影响房地产市场的稳定。 但很多人不明白，这种整治"唱空"楼市的言论，究竟是维护房地产市场还是压制舆论？对此，呈现出两种截然不 同的观点。支持者认为，房地产市场，是一个高度依赖信心的市场，过度悲观或夸大的言论，可能会引发非理性 的市场行为，例如恐慌性抛售或观望情绪加剧，进而影响商品住宅的销售，影响房地产市场的稳定。特别是在当 前经济下行压力较大的情况下，房地产市场的稳定，对于地方政府的财政收入、金融体系的稳定乃至整体经济的 发展，都有着重要的影响。因此，规范市场言论、打击虚假信息或恶意唱空行为，是维护市场秩序的必要手段。 近期，不少城市相继出手整治"唱空"楼市的言论，引发社会的广泛关注。9月30日，北京市房地产中介行业协会， 在发布的倡议中明确提出："不唱衰做空市场"、"禁止恶意压价"等要求。而更早的9月9日，黑龙江省哈尔滨市房 地产经纪行业协会，则直接对自媒体"房老 ...

智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究发文称，10月房企推盘积极性稳步回落，28城单月供应环比下降 41%，同比下降18%。一线城市同环比齐跌，内部冷热不均。二线城市中约9成城市环比下滑，仅少数 城市宁波、重庆等逆势增长。三四线城市因泉州等个别城市影响而同环比齐增。 从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为29%、57%和14%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需 为辅的供应结构。近8成城市以主城为供应主力。 基于10月供应稳中有增，故而新房成交绝对量或将延续低位盘整行情，基于去年基数较高，同比降幅或 有持续扩大可能。 规模：10月28城供应同环比齐跌 仅深渝甬泉常徐等逆势回升 10月房企推盘积极性稳步回落，供给约束依旧显著：据CRIC调研，10月28城预计新增商品住宅供应面 积577万平方米，环比下降41%，同比下跌18%，2025年前10月累计同比下降14%。 分能级来看，一线城市同环比齐跌，内部冷热不均。据CRIC监测数据，10月一线城市预计总供应122万 平方米，环比"腰斩"，同比下降27%。其中上海供应量降至"冰点"，同环比跌幅分别为84%和85%，均 居一线之首，房企推盘积极性不足。北京、广州同比正增， ...

2025年1-9月份，济南商品住宅市场整体成交面积364.4万㎡。9月单月销量约30万㎡，同比去年下滑；成交 均价高于去年同期水平；土拍市场方面，9月全市4宗宅地成交，成交建面17.19万㎡。楼面均价为1701元/ ㎡。让我们来看一下2025年9月济南房企与项目表现如何： 房企排行榜 2025年 1-9月份，济南商品住宅项目销售金额排行榜TOP10合计销售金额为152.4亿元，本月 TOP10 门槛值 为9.5亿元。排行榜前三位的项目销售金额均超23亿，其中第一位是中海天空之镜，销售金额为26.6亿；第 二位是银丰玖玺城，销售金额为23.8亿；中海·华山珑城排名第三，销售金额为23.1亿。 | | | | 2025年1-9月济南房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 销售业绩TOP10 | | | | | | 销售额 | | 企业名称 | 销售面积 | | 排名 | 企业名称 | (亿元) | 排名 | | (万 m2) | | 1 | FRENDE | 62.2 | 1 | 中海地产 | 33.5 | | 2 | 保利置业 | 45 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, and the "Good Housing" regulations in Shanghai have been implemented. The tracked 68 cities show a month-on-month increase in new housing transactions, with 20 cities also experiencing a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions. The land transaction area has increased year-on-year, and the premium rate has decreased month-on-month. The issuance of domestic credit bonds has increased month-on-month. The report suggests that with various policies promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, the overall market is moving towards stabilization, although slight fluctuations in housing prices may still occur [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Urban Old Community Renovation Progress - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that from January to August 2025, 21,700 urban old communities were newly started, achieving 86.8% of the annual target of 25,000 [6][14]. 2. Sales Side: New Housing Transaction Area Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the transaction area of commercial residential properties in 68 cities was 2.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22% but a month-on-month increase of 27%. The cumulative transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 88.46 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [19][32]. 3. Investment Side: Land Transaction Area Year-on-Year Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 22.71 million square meters, and the transaction area was 24.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The premium rate for land transactions was 1% [41][44]. 4. Financing Side: Domestic Credit Bond Issuance Scale Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 14.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203% and a month-on-month increase of 140%. The cumulative issuance scale of credit bonds is 311.55 billion yuan, which is basically flat year-on-year [52][56]. 5. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.07%. The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the real estate sector [58][61].

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan has introduced new real estate policies aimed at boosting demand and optimizing supply in response to structural changes in the housing market [1][2]. Demand-Side Summary - Implementation of temporary home purchase subsidies, providing 2% of the total contract price for new home buyers, capped at 30,000 yuan [1]. - Optimization of first-time home buyer recognition standards, expanding the coverage of loan benefits by adjusting the recognition criteria to the locality of the purchased property [1]. - Increase in housing provident fund support, with maximum loan limits for first and second homes raised to 1.5 million yuan, and an additional 50% increase for those purchasing designated affordable housing [1]. Supply-Side Summary - Refinement of the land supply adjustment mechanism, pausing new residential land sales in areas where the inventory turnover exceeds 36 months [2]. - Support for the functional transformation of existing commercial office properties, simplifying processes for repurposing [2]. - Optimization of administrative approval services for real estate projects, including measures like market-based pricing and streamlined registration processes to enhance market vitality and reduce financing costs for enterprises [2]. Market Context - Recent data indicates a continued decline in new home sales volume in Dongguan, while second-hand home sales have shown some recovery compared to last year [2]. - The average transaction price for new homes has dropped to 21,708 yuan per square meter, reaching a low point in recent years [2]. - Industry experts suggest that Dongguan's new policies may be influenced by similar measures in Shenzhen, which could lead to increased competition for housing demand in the region [3].