Core Insights - The real estate market in Xiaoshan District is experiencing a mix of new project launches and varying sales performance, indicating a competitive environment for developers and buyers [1][6] Group 1: New Project Launches - The first unlimited price project, Chao Yu Zhen Jing Fu, launched in early June with an average price of 42,021 yuan per square meter, attracting 327 families for 123 units, resulting in a lottery rate of approximately 37% [1] - Another limited-price project, Bin Yue Fei Li Xuan, was launched at an average price of 39,500 yuan per square meter, with all 83 units sold in the first opening, but over 30 units remain unsold due to high abandonment rates during online selection [1][2] - Upcoming projects include Song Chuan Jing, developed by Binjiang and Xingyao, expected to launch in mid-September, featuring high-rise buildings and luxury townhouses [1][2] Group 2: Project Features and Pricing - Song Chuan Jing will have a total of 232 units with a low plot ratio of 1.8, offering larger unit sizes, including a 169 square meter four-bedroom and a 199 square meter five-bedroom layout, with expected prices of 48,000 yuan per square meter for high-rises and 90,000 yuan per square meter for townhouses [2] - Another project, Xiao Lan Yu Hua, will feature larger units ranging from 186 to 241 square meters for high-rises and 237 to 364 square meters for townhouses, with prices expected to exceed 50,000 yuan per square meter [3][4] - Jin Shang Guan Lan, located in the eastern part of the district, will offer 650 units with prices starting in the 300,000 yuan range, indicating a widening price gap in the market [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is seeing a diversification of product types and price ranges, moving from the previous unified pricing model to a more varied landscape, catering to different buyer needs [6] - The total available new housing units in the Xiaoshan District exceeds 1,500, indicating significant supply pressure on new projects [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in August shows a steady decline in supply from developers, with significant constraints on new housing supply due to land availability, leading to a low overall supply level for the year [1][2]. Supply Overview - In August, 28 key cities are expected to see a new residential supply of 4.76 million square meters, representing a month-on-month decrease of 26% and a year-on-year decline of 38%, marking the second-lowest supply level of the year [1]. - The cumulative year-on-year supply for the first eight months of 2025 has decreased by 17% [1]. - First-tier cities are under pressure, with only Guangzhou showing growth, while over 60% of second-tier cities experienced declines [1][2]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are expected to supply only 740,000 square meters in August, down 45% month-on-month and 53% year-on-year, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all experiencing significant declines [2]. - Guangzhou is the only first-tier city with a month-on-month increase of 13%, with its cumulative year-on-year decline narrowing to 5% [2]. - In second-tier cities, the expected supply is 3.55 million square meters, down 24% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with 12 out of 19 cities experiencing declines [2]. Third and Fourth Tier Cities - The supply in third and fourth-tier cities remains low, with an expected new supply of 480,000 square meters in August, reflecting a 9% month-on-month increase but a 4% year-on-year decrease [3]. - Wuxi is noted for a significant increase in supply, while other cities like Changzhou and Quanzhou show substantial declines [3]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is characterized by 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvements, and 19% for high-end products, indicating a shift towards improvement demand [5]. - Over 70% of cities focus on main urban areas for supply, with a notable increase in high-end product ratios in cities like Jinan [5][8]. Future Expectations - The overall new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low, with potential for a narrowing year-on-year decline of within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [11]. - The market may see a divergence in performance among cities, with some second-tier cities like Tianjin and Suzhou potentially experiencing a phase of recovery [11]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to slow down, primarily attracting price-sensitive buyers due to the enhanced competitiveness of new housing products [11].

Core Viewpoint - In August, new home transaction expectations remained stable at low levels due to supply constraints, with cities like Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Changsha showing slight increases [1][14]. Supply Overview - In August, supply in 28 key cities dropped by 40% year-on-year, returning to the second-lowest level of the year, with all first-tier cities under pressure except Guangzhou, which saw a 13% increase [4][5][7]. - The overall supply volume was the second-lowest of the year, with a total of 4.76 million square meters expected to be supplied, a 26% decrease month-on-month and a 38% decrease year-on-year [5][7]. - First-tier cities saw a significant decline in supply, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing over 90% drops in some cases, while Guangzhou was the only city to show growth [7][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvement, and 19% for high-end products [8][11]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Jinan and Wuxi showing a significant increase in high-end product supply [8][11]. Market Predictions - New home transaction volumes are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai likely to see a temporary decline in transactions due to a shortage of quality supply [15][17]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Suzhou, and Changsha, may experience a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new residential products [15][17]. Transaction Expectations - Expected transaction changes for August indicate a mixed outlook, with Beijing and Shanghai likely to see declines, while cities like Guangzhou and Nanning may experience slight increases [17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in May shows signs of weak recovery, with a stabilization in new home sales and project absorption rates, maintaining a high level of activity [2][22]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average opening absorption rate for new homes in 30 key cities in May was 39%, an increase of 1 percentage point month-on-month and 12 percentage points year-on-year, remaining consistent with the peak levels of 2023 [4][22]. - Cities like Xiamen, Chengdu, Changsha, and Chongqing reported absorption rates exceeding 60%, primarily driven by popular projects entering the market [4][22]. - The market is categorized into three types: hot cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen maintaining steady absorption rates; cities like Zhengzhou and Suzhou experiencing a decline but showing year-on-year stability; and weaker second and third-tier cities like Kunming and Qingdao with absorption rates below 20% [4][22]. Group 2: New Project Performance - New regulations and high-efficiency housing projects have significantly boosted sales compared to traditional projects, with "good houses" leading the market [8][22]. - In Guangzhou, new regulatory projects accounted for 50% of the total supply and 70% of the total subscriptions in May, indicating strong market preference for these products [8][22]. - Chengdu saw a rise in market share for new regulatory projects, with absorption rates consistently above 90% due to the introduction of several new projects [11][22]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - In cities like Zhengzhou, Nanjing, and Xiamen, government-led initiatives such as stock housing purchases and housing vouchers have positively impacted sales in non-core areas [16][22]. - In Zhengzhou, one-third of the top-selling projects in May were driven by housing vouchers, showcasing the effectiveness of government support [16][22]. Group 4: Sales Strategies in Weak Markets - In weaker second-tier cities like Xi'an, Suzhou, and Fuzhou, projects are adopting strategies such as significant discounts and enhanced commission structures to boost sales [19][22]. - For instance, in Xi'an, a project achieved 113 subscriptions through channel empowerment and competitive pricing [19][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend in June, with an increase in marketing efforts and the introduction of suitable projects likely to sustain sales momentum [22][23]. - Core cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou face supply constraints, which may limit transaction volumes, while cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin show signs of stabilization [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39%, indicating increasing constraints on supply [2][12]. Supply Overview - The overall supply volume in May was 5.67 million square meters, down 36% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 24% for the first five months [2][12]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu saw substantial supply reductions, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing near stagnation in new supply [3][12]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities showed a steady decline, with a month-on-month drop exceeding 40%. Beijing's supply remained stable compared to last year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen's supply fell below 200,000 square meters [3][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Cities like Ningbo and Kunming saw temporary increases in supply [3][12]. - Third and fourth-tier cities faced a complete contraction in supply, with some cities reporting zero new supply, indicating a "passive clearance" phase in the market [3][12]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 37% for basic needs, 47% for improvement, and 16% for high-end properties [6][9]. - More than half of the cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with a significant focus on improvement products [6][9]. Market Outlook - The expectation for the market is a "quality improvement" in supply, which may support a slight increase in transaction volumes in May, with a likely month-on-month increase and year-on-year stability [12][13]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 31%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8 percentage points but stable compared to last year [12][13].