Core Viewpoint - In August, new home transaction expectations remained stable at low levels due to supply constraints, with cities like Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Changsha showing slight increases [1][14]. Supply Overview - In August, supply in 28 key cities dropped by 40% year-on-year, returning to the second-lowest level of the year, with all first-tier cities under pressure except Guangzhou, which saw a 13% increase [4][5][7]. - The overall supply volume was the second-lowest of the year, with a total of 4.76 million square meters expected to be supplied, a 26% decrease month-on-month and a 38% decrease year-on-year [5][7]. - First-tier cities saw a significant decline in supply, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing over 90% drops in some cases, while Guangzhou was the only city to show growth [7][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvement, and 19% for high-end products [8][11]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Jinan and Wuxi showing a significant increase in high-end product supply [8][11]. Market Predictions - New home transaction volumes are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai likely to see a temporary decline in transactions due to a shortage of quality supply [15][17]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Suzhou, and Changsha, may experience a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new residential products [15][17]. Transaction Expectations - Expected transaction changes for August indicate a mixed outlook, with Beijing and Shanghai likely to see declines, while cities like Guangzhou and Nanning may experience slight increases [17].

预判6月，我们认为，房企年中冲刺将至，营销预期加码，供给结构优化下适销对路楼盘入市，预期带动 成交总量延续稳步复苏走势，环比持增，同比持平去年或小幅微降，延续弱修复态势。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 5月整体楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势，楼市新房成交和项目去化率环比持增，延续高位：5月平均开盘去化 率为39%，环比上升1pcts，同比上升12pcts，与2023年高峰基本持平。究竟当前热销楼盘有什么共性特征？6 月又能否延续市场热度稳步回升的态势呢？ 01 5月30城平均去化率39% 优质项目入市托举去化率同环比正增 5月整体市场热度仍处高位震荡，同环比皆增：据CRIC调研数据，30个重点城市5月平均开盘去化率为39%， 环比上升1pcts，同比上升12pcts，与2023年高峰基本持平，延续稳中向好。 分城市来看，福州、南宁、长春、东莞、珠海、宁波、徐州等7城无项目开盘或加推，惨淡的成交行情抑制了 房企推盘积极性。去化率超6成城市仅有厦门、成都、长沙、重庆，其中厦门、重庆主要得益于个别网红盘入 市带动市场热度持增。 而从变化趋势来看，环比跌多涨少而同比涨多跌少，典型城市大体可分为以下几类：一是热点城市诸如上海、 深 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39%, indicating increasing constraints on supply [2][12]. Supply Overview - The overall supply volume in May was 5.67 million square meters, down 36% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 24% for the first five months [2][12]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu saw substantial supply reductions, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing near stagnation in new supply [3][12]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities showed a steady decline, with a month-on-month drop exceeding 40%. Beijing's supply remained stable compared to last year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen's supply fell below 200,000 square meters [3][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Cities like Ningbo and Kunming saw temporary increases in supply [3][12]. - Third and fourth-tier cities faced a complete contraction in supply, with some cities reporting zero new supply, indicating a "passive clearance" phase in the market [3][12]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 37% for basic needs, 47% for improvement, and 16% for high-end properties [6][9]. - More than half of the cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with a significant focus on improvement products [6][9]. Market Outlook - The expectation for the market is a "quality improvement" in supply, which may support a slight increase in transaction volumes in May, with a likely month-on-month increase and year-on-year stability [12][13]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 31%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8 percentage points but stable compared to last year [12][13].