Report Investment Rating - The report suggests continuing to observe the crude oil market [6] Core Viewpoints - The prices of major international crude oil futures, including WTI, Brent, and SC, all declined on October 15, 2025 [3] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage window for Atlantic Basin light crude oil entering the USGC (Cracking) is closed, while the window for heavy crude oil is close to balance or slightly in the red, and the demand for heavy crude oil in the US Gulf is relatively stable [4] - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Northwest Europe and Singapore is open, which supports US crude oil export volumes and increases supply options in Asia [4] - The arbitrage window for Middle - Eastern and West African crude oil entering Japan is closed, which supports the demand for Russian crude oil in Asia [4] 2. Product Arbitrage - The gasoline arbitrage window from Europe to New York is open, helping to balance the gasoline markets on both sides of the Atlantic [7] - The diesel arbitrage window from the USGC to Northwest Europe is closed, as the price difference between Europe and the US is insufficient to cover freight costs [7] - The jet fuel arbitrage window from South Korea to the US West Coast is significantly open, strongly stimulating Asian jet fuel exports to the US [7] - The fuel oil arbitrage window from Europe to Singapore is closed, and the regional market for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively independent [7] 3. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for West African and US crude oil to Singapore are open, increasing supply options for light oil in Asia and diversifying Asian buyers' demand [7] - The arbitrage windows for Middle - Eastern and West African crude oil to Japan are closed, highlighting the pricing advantage and strong demand for ESPO in the Northeast Asian market [7] - The arbitrage windows for US, Azerbaijani, and North African crude oil to Europe are open, with significant economic advantages, supporting export volumes and providing important alternative options for European refineries [8] 4. Key Market News - Due to the US Columbus Day holiday, the release of US weekly API and EIA crude oil inventory data will be postponed to October 16 (Thursday) 04:30 and October 17 (Friday) 00:00, respectively [8] - US President Trump stated that the disarmament of Hamas will occur quickly, perhaps with violence [8] - The CEO of energy company VITOL believes that US shale oil production may decline by 300,000 barrels per day in 2026 [8] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a 28 - month high in the past four weeks, due to increased production and attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine [8][10] - The CEO of TotalEnergies believes that when the oil price drops to $60 per barrel, non - OPEC producers will start to cut production, and non - OPEC supply will decline significantly from mid - 2026, allowing OPEC to regain market control [10] - The warehouse futures warrants for low - sulfur fuel oil are 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [10]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on naked long positions in crude oil, going long on volatility before the holiday, and holding calendar spreads [1]. Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil - WTI November crude futures closed down $0.01/barrel, a 0.02% decline, at $64.98/barrel; Brent November crude futures closed up $0.11/barrel, a 0.16% increase, at $69.42/barrel; SC2511 crude futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.45% increase, at 491.10 yuan/barrel [1]. 2. Main Regional Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil arbitrage scenarios are presented, including different target markets, benchmark crudes, alternative crudes, and their corresponding values and statuses. For example, in the USGC market, when using WTI as the benchmark and Arab Extra as the alternative, the value is -$5.93/barrel and the status is "Closed" [2]. 3. Refined Oil Arbitrage - Various refined oil arbitrage routes and scenarios are detailed, such as gasoline from Europe to New York with an open status and a value of $1.78/barrel, using MR tankers for transportation and involving multiple adjustments and costs [8]. 4. Refinery Profits - Refinery profit calculations for different regions are provided, including USGC, USAC, Midwest, Rotterdam, Mediterranean, Singapore, etc. Each region has specific refinery configurations, benchmark crudes, and calculation methods [10]. 5. Key Market News - Trump urged Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [11]. - Trump had a good talk about the Gaza issue and mentioned that Hungary, as a land - locked country, can only buy oil from Russia [12]. - Iraq's central government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region reached a "historic agreement" on September 25, 2025, where the central government's oil ministry will receive and export crude oil from the region's oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [14]. - Iran's vice - president stated that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program and will jointly build new nuclear power plants with Russia. Russia's state atomic energy company is continuing the construction of the second and third units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant [14]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will ban diesel exports until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year [14]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong trends respectively [13].