商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.79 美元/桶，跌幅 1.33%，报 58.70 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.93 美元/桶，跌幅 1.47%，报 62.39 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.37%， 报 446.30 元/桶。 1、原油套利 | 套利路线 | 代表性油种 | 套利窗口状态 (2025-10-13) | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进入 USGC | Arab Light, | 关闭（- | 相对于美国本土基准 WTI MEH，大西洋盆地的轻质原油 | | (Cracking) | Forties | 5.91/bbl,−7.17/bbl） | 进口经济性不佳，抑制跨大西 | | | | | 洋进口。 | | 进入 USGC | Maya, | 接近平衡/略亏（- | 重质原油（如 Maya）与基准 | | (Coking) | Vas ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on naked long positions in crude oil, going long on volatility before the holiday, and holding calendar spreads [1]. Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil - WTI November crude futures closed down $0.01/barrel, a 0.02% decline, at $64.98/barrel; Brent November crude futures closed up $0.11/barrel, a 0.16% increase, at $69.42/barrel; SC2511 crude futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.45% increase, at 491.10 yuan/barrel [1]. 2. Main Regional Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil arbitrage scenarios are presented, including different target markets, benchmark crudes, alternative crudes, and their corresponding values and statuses. For example, in the USGC market, when using WTI as the benchmark and Arab Extra as the alternative, the value is -$5.93/barrel and the status is "Closed" [2]. 3. Refined Oil Arbitrage - Various refined oil arbitrage routes and scenarios are detailed, such as gasoline from Europe to New York with an open status and a value of $1.78/barrel, using MR tankers for transportation and involving multiple adjustments and costs [8]. 4. Refinery Profits - Refinery profit calculations for different regions are provided, including USGC, USAC, Midwest, Rotterdam, Mediterranean, Singapore, etc. Each region has specific refinery configurations, benchmark crudes, and calculation methods [10]. 5. Key Market News - Trump urged Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [11]. - Trump had a good talk about the Gaza issue and mentioned that Hungary, as a land - locked country, can only buy oil from Russia [12]. - Iraq's central government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region reached a "historic agreement" on September 25, 2025, where the central government's oil ministry will receive and export crude oil from the region's oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [14]. - Iran's vice - president stated that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program and will jointly build new nuclear power plants with Russia. Russia's state atomic energy company is continuing the construction of the second and third units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant [14]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will ban diesel exports until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year [14]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong trends respectively [13].