商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 原油：短线观望，关注伊朗问题等上行风 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品 | 套利状 | 套利值（美元 | 套利窗口描述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 态 | /桶） | | | Arab | | | | | Extra | Closed | -3.41 | 套利窗口关闭，进口无利可图 | | Light | | | | | Arab Light | Closed | -4.12 | 裂解利润不足，竞争力弱 | | Nemba | Closed | -4.16 | 运费高企抵消品质溢价 | | Agbami | Closed | -5.81 | 非洲原油需求疲软，西非供应过剩 | | Forties | Closed | -8.53 | 北海原油在美湾缺乏竞争力 | 资料来源：Platts，Augus，Kpler，Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 2、大西洋原油套利套利 | 原油品种 | 套利状态 | 套利值（美 元/桶） | 套利窗口描 ...

2026 年 1 月 8 日 商 品 研 究 原油：空单减仓止盈，关注伊朗问题等上 行风险 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com | 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油品 | 炼油厂 | 状态 | 价格 | 交割地 | 备注 | | 种 | 配置 | | ($/Bbl) | | | | Arab Extra | FCC & HCU | Closed | -3.92 | US Gulf | 硫含量调整影响燃料油生产，WTI MEH 需求 | | | | | | Coast | 波动 | | Light | (裂解) | | | | | | Arab | FCC & | | | US Gulf | 美湾炼厂裂解利润收窄，中东轻质原油供应 | | Light | HCU | Closed | -4.47 | Coast | 增加 | | | (裂解) | | | | | | | FCC & | | | US Gulf | 巴西原油出口季节性波动，美湾炼厂检修周 | | N ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 险 原油：空单持有，关注伊朗问题等上行风 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 替代原 | 炼厂配置 | 套利状 | 价差 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油 | | 态 | | | | Arab | 裂化 | | | | | Extra | （FCC&HCU | 关闭 | -3.49 | 持续负值，12 月均低于-5.0 | | Light | ） | | | | | Nemba | 裂化 | 关闭 | -3.51 | 相对稳定，但无改善 | | Agbami | 裂化 | 关闭 | -6.13 | 表现最差，需求低迷 | | Vasconi | 焦化 | 关闭 | -1.05 | 重质原油中较好，但仍负 | | a | | | | | | Maya | 焦化 | 关闭 | -1.21 | 墨西哥原油机会有限 | 资料来源：Platts，Augus，Kpler，Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 2、大西洋原油套利套利 | 替代原 | ...

商 品 研 究 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品种 | 状态 | 套利激励 (12/30/25) | 关键趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Extra Light | 关闭 | -4.57 | 月有所改善 全年持续负值，12 | | Arab Light | 关闭 | -5.37 | 深度负值，套利窗口关闭 | | Nemba | 关闭 | -3.5 | 相对表现较好但仍为负值 | | Agbami | 关闭 | -6.06 | 表现最差，套利机会缺失 | | Arab Heavy | 关闭 | -4.15 | 重质原油套利困难 | | Vasconia | 关闭 | -1.3 | 在重质原油中表现相对较好 | | Castilla | 关闭 | -4.24 | 套利窗口持续关闭 | | Napo | 关闭 | -3.89 | 南美原油缺乏竞争力 | | Maya | 关闭 | -1.68 | 在重质原油中套利激励相对较高 | 资料来源：Platts，Augus，Kpler，Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 2、大西洋原油套利套利 原油：空单持有，酌情逢高加空 黄 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1] 2. Core View - The report provides an analysis of crude oil futures prices, various regional crude oil arbitrage opportunities, and key market news, indicating that the short - term crude oil market is volatile [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Price - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 1.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% increase, at 436.90 yuan/barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Among different crude oil varieties, Napo vs Mars has a significant arbitrage opportunity of 5.22 (Dec - 25), while most other pairs have negative or near - balance arbitrage windows [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Urals vs Bonny Light has an arbitrage window of 23.68 (Dec - 25), showing a relatively large difference [3] - **North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Saharan Blend vs Forties has a stable arbitrage space of 1.63 (Dec - 25), while some other varieties have weak or negative arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against Urals have deeply closed arbitrage windows, with large value differences and cost factors playing important roles [5] - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against ESPO have closed arbitrage windows, with price differences and high costs as main factors, and Eagle Ford has the relatively smallest loss [6] 3.3 Key Market News - President Trump said he heard that Iran was trying to rebuild its military power [6] - As of the week ending December 19, the total US natural gas inventory was 341.3 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 16.6 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 12.9 billion cubic feet less than the same period last year (a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%), and 2.4 billion cubic feet lower than the 5 - year average (a decrease of 0.7%) [7] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to suspend receiving crude oil on Monday evening [8] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) postponed the release of the weekly petroleum status report for the week ending December 19 [8] - Kazakhstan's oil production in December so far has dropped 6% from the November average to 1.93 million barrels per day [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report recommends holding short positions in crude oil and adding short positions as appropriate [1] 2. Core View - The prices of major crude oil contracts have declined, with WTI 02 down $1.61/barrel (2.76%) to $56.74/barrel, Brent 02 down $1.60/barrel (2.57%) to $60.64/barrel, and SC2602 down 10.80 yuan/barrel (2.44%) to 432.60 yuan/barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for different crude oil varieties and device types are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$0.52/barrel to -$8.06/barrel. Key negative factors include refinery value differences, crude oil price differences, high freight and structural costs, and lack of competitiveness [2] 3.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some crude oil varieties such as Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals show arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces ranging from +$0.3/barrel to +$2.46/barrel. However, Cabinda lacks competitiveness with a negative arbitrage space of -$2.66/barrel [4] 3.3 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some varieties like Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces ranging from +$0.06/barrel to +$1.35/barrel. WTI MEH is close to full balance, and Azeri Light lacks competitiveness with a negative space of -$0.92/barrel [5] 3.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for the listed crude oil varieties are deeply closed, with negative spaces ranging from -$23.41/barrel to -$26.3/barrel, indicating a lack of competitiveness [6] 3.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of +$0.34/barrel, +$5.71/barrel, and +$0.89/barrel respectively. Basrah Heavy and Maya are close to the break - even point [7] 3.6 Key Market News - Tensions in the Middle East: Iranian President Pezeshkian warns the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, and Israel may strike Iranian facilities again [8] - Russia extends its gasoline export ban until the end of February [8] - Iran seizes foreign oil tankers suspected of smuggling fuel to combat fuel smuggling [9] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak expects oil consumption to increase by over 1 million barrels per day annually and potentially reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - In the Asian session, international spot gold hits a new record high, and spot silver breaks through $75/ounce for the first time [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "lightly shorting" crude oil [4]. 2. Core View - The report provides an overview of international crude oil market conditions, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news, with a bearish view on the crude oil trend as indicated by a trend - strength of - 1 [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Crude Oil Price - WTI and Brent were closed without quotes. SC2602 crude oil futures rose 1.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.38%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking and coking units had a closed arbitrage state, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -0.52 to -8.06 USD/barrel [3]. - **Atlantic**: Some crude oil varieties like Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals in cracking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.3 to 2.46 USD/barrel, while Cabinda lacked competitiveness [5]. - **North - Western Europe**: Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light in cracking units showed arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.06 to 1.35 USD/barrel, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light lacked competitiveness [6]. - **Mediterranean**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking units had a closed arbitrage state, with large negative arbitrage spaces from -23.41 to -26.3 USD/barrel [7]. - **Asia**: Duri, Napo, and Mars in coking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.34 to 5.71 USD/barrel, while Basrah Heavy and Maya were close to the break - even point [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - The US launched a strike against ISIS terrorists in north - western Nigeria [9]. - Iraq's total crude oil exports in November were 106.5 million barrels [10]. - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [10]. - A Hamas delegation visited Baghdad and discussed the Gaza cease - fire agreement [10]. - The US escalated sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about fuel oil supply. Russian refinery attacks continued, and the market situation was affected by various factors such as seasonal demand changes and quota adjustments [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term continued observation of crude oil and recommends shorting at high prices when the opportunity arises [1] 2. Core View - The report provides price changes of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations of different crude oil varieties in multiple regions [1] 3. Content Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose $0.51 per barrel, a 0.91% increase, to $56.66 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose $0.65 per barrel, a 1.09% increase, to $60.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures rose 4.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.05% increase, to 431.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc., were closed, with negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness or no cost - advantage [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils presented arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces of +0.55, +0.27, +2.72, and +26.47 USD/Bbl respectively; Cabinda crude oil had insufficient competitiveness [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils had arbitrage opportunities, while Azeri Light crude oil's arbitrage window was closed [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils were all closed, showing weak competitiveness [7][8] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford crude oil was the only one presenting an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +1.04 USD/Bbl; Murban, Dubai, Bonny Light, and WTI MEH crude oils' arbitrage windows were closed [8] Key Market News - Trump mentioned stances on Venezuela; China's refined oil exports in November 2025 increased; Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals increased; the exchange will waive delivery commodity registration fees from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [9][10] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to continue watching [1] Core Views - The prices of major crude oil futures have increased, and there are various situations in crude oil arbitrage opportunities in different regions, along with some significant market news affecting the crude oil market [1][2][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures Price Movements - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.67 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%, reaching $55.94 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures 02 contract rose by $0.76 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%, reaching $59.68 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by 3.10 yuan per barrel, a gain of 0.73%, at 427.40 yuan per barrel [1] 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties, Arab Heavy, and Vasconia crude oils are closed, while Castilla and Napo crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Maya crude oil is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage window for Forties is closed, while Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Cabinda crude oil has insufficient competitiveness [4] 4. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils all present arbitrage opportunities in the Northwest Europe market [6] 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils are all closed when using Urals as the benchmark [7][8] 6. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 7. Key Market News - The Trump administration is inquiring if US oil companies are interested in returning to Venezuela, but the industry shows little interest due to low oil prices and other factors; several Venezuelan oil - by - product ships sailed out under naval escort; the Amuay refinery in Venezuela has restarted; US EIA crude oil inventory data shows changes; PDVSA declares normal export operations [12] 8. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]