Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - As the summer power generation demand declines, Middle - East crude oil exports will gradually increase. With the end of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 74 cents to $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 71 cents to $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.71% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran has set new conditions for restarting nuclear talks with the Trump administration. The Iranian Foreign Minister said the US must compensate for the losses during the Iran - Israel conflict last month, explain its attack during the talks, and guarantee no similar attacks in the future [1] - Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil last week due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats [1] - President Trump said the fastest way to end the Gaza humanitarian crisis is for Hamas to surrender and release hostages [1] - In the fourth quarter, Asia is expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil because the price increase of Middle - East crude oil has opened an arbitrage window. Western Oil has sold WTI crude oil to Japan's Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for October delivery [1] Investment Logic - As the end of summer approaches, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October, unless Saudi Arabia deliberately controls exports. The impact of the maintenance of the Upper Zakum oil field in the UAE is limited [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]