lel 品 研 7 | 基准原油 | 炼厂配置 | 套利油种 | 套利状态 (11/21/2 | 套利价值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ($/Bbl) | 地区市场情况说明 | | | | | 5) | | | | | | 阿拉伯超 | 关闭 | -6. 65 | | | | | 轻质 | | | | | | | | | | 所有流入 USGC 的轻质原油套利 | | | | | | | 窗口均深度关闭。 巨大的负值 | | | 裂解装置 | 阿拉伯轻 | | | 表明,在当前价格体系下,美国 | | WT MEH | (FCC&HCU) | | 关闭 | -8. 25 | 本土原油（如 WTI MEH, Mars） | | | | 500 质 | | | 相比进口原油具有压倒性的成本 | | | | Nemba | 关闭 | -6.57 | 优势,强烈抑制了轻质原油的进 | | | | (安哥拉) | | | 口需求。 | | | | Agbami (尼日利 | 关闭 | -6. 54 | | | | | 亚) | | | | | ...

lel 品研 第 2025 年 11 月 24 日 原油:空单持有,或逐步考验4月前低 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 黄柳楠 【国际原油】 NYMEX 原油期货 1 月合约 58.06 跌 0.94 美元/桶,环比-1.59%; ICE 布油期货 01 合约 62.56 跌 0.82 美元/桶，环比-1.29%; SC2601 原油期货收跌 6.60元/桶,跌幅 1.46%的 服q46.40元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 基准原 | 炼厂配置 | 套利油 | 套利状 | 夏 利 价 値 | 地区市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油 | | 种 | 态 | ($/ Bb l | | | | | 阿拉伯 | | | | | | | 超轻质 | 关闭 | -5 | | | | | | | | 所有流入 USGC 的轻质原油套利窗口均关闭。 | | WT I | 裂解装置 | | | | 巨大的负值表明当地页岩油(如 WTI MEH) 供 | | MEH | (FCC&HCU | 阿拉伯 | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 0.18 美元，跌幅 0.30%，报 59.91 美元/桶；布伦特 1 月原油期货收跌 0.19 美元，跌幅 0.30%，报 64.20 美元/桶；SC2601 原油期货收涨 1.10 元/桶，涨幅 0.24%，报 461.90 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | | | | 套利 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基准 | 炼厂配置 | 套利油种 | 套利 | 价值 | 地区市场情况说明 | | 原油 | | | 状态 | (美元 | | | | | | | /桶) | | | | | 阿拉伯超轻质 阿拉伯轻质 | 关闭 关闭 | -5.06 -6.46 | 所有轻质原油流入 USGC 的经济性 | | WTI | 裂解装置 | Nemba (安哥 | 关闭 | -6.3 | 均为负值，表明当地页岩油（如 WTI MEH）供应充足且极具竞争 | | MEH | ...

唱 研 37 2025 年 11 月 17 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 黄柳楠 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12月原油期货收涨 1.40美元,涨幅 2.39%,报 60.09美元/桶;布伦特 1 月原油期货收涨 1.38 美元,涨幅 2.19%,报 64.39 美元/桶;SC2512 原油期货收涨 4.70元7桶,涨幅 1.02%,报 463.60元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 套利路径 | 基准原油 | 炼油配置 | 状态 | 价値 | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (11/13/25 | ($/Bbl) | | | Arab Extra | | | | | | | Light + | WTI MEH | Cracking | Closed | -4. 63 | 沙特轻质原油无经济性。 | | USGC | | | | | | | Arab Light | WTI MEH | Cracking | Closed | -5.9 | 沙特中质原油无经济性。 | | -> USGC ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the oil industry but suggests that the rebound of crude oil may be limited and recommends holding short positions [1]. 2. Core View - The rebound of crude oil may be limited, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Section International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures rose $0.91 per barrel, or 1.51%, to $61.04 per barrel; Brent January crude oil futures rose $1.10 per barrel, or 1.72%, to $65.16 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 9.70 yuan per barrel, or 2.11%, to 468.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various types of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed. This reflects factors such as tight Middle - East supply, high freight rates, and sufficient supply in the Atlantic Basin [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Windows for Forties, Arab Extra Light, and Cabinda are closed, while those for Saharan Blend and Urals are open. The opening of the Urals window is an abnormal situation due to deep discounts and demand from complex refineries in the US East, though actual trade is restricted by sanctions [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Saharan Blend are closed, while those for Azeri Light and Bonny Light are open. This is related to factors like the price difference between Brent and WTI and freight costs [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk are all closed. The deep discount of Urals crude due to sanctions suppresses the economic viability of other similar crude oils in this region [7]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Windows for Murban, Dubai, and WTI MEH are closed, while those for Bonny Light and Eagle Ford are open. The opening of these windows is affected by factors such as regional supply tightness, price structures, and freight rates [7]. Key Market News - India cuts December Russian crude oil orders and increases US crude oil purchases; Switzerland may reach a 15% tariff agreement with the US; Turkey's benchmark stock index drops 3% due to a political event; An investigation into a US federal official is upgraded [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, with an oil trend strength of -1, it implies a bearish stance on the oil market [8]. 2. Core View - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually test previous lows [1]. 3. Summary by Section Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All six types of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light from Saudi, Nemba from Angola, etc., have negative arbitrage incentives, and their arbitrage windows are closed. Reasons include high freight, weak competitiveness, and insufficient coking profits [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties from the North Sea has an arbitrage incentive of $0.52/b, with its window open, supporting trans - Atlantic light oil trade. Arab Extra Light from Saudi almost reaches the break - even point but faces fierce competition in the US East market [3]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH and Eagle Ford from the US have negative arbitrage incentives due to high trans - Atlantic freight. Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, Saharan Blend from Algeria, and Bonny Light from Nigeria have positive incentives, with their windows open, serving as stable light oil sources for Europe [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend from Algeria, Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, and Bonny Light from Nigeria all have negative arbitrage incentives, facing strong competition from Russian oil (Urals) [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri from Indonesia and Basrah Heavy from Iraq have negative arbitrage incentives. Napo from Ecuador and Mars from the US have positive incentives, with their windows open, being attractive heavy - oil sources for Chinese refineries [6][7]. Key Market News - There was a cross - fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the situation was quickly controlled. The Trump administration may cut flights. Iraq plans to offer over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil in 2026. Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a two - week low. India's Reliance Industries is trying to sell some Middle - East oil cargoes [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests holding short positions in crude oil, and the price may gradually test the previous low. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - WTI December crude futures closed down $0.96/barrel, a 1.59% decline, at $59.60/barrel. - Brent January crude futures closed down $0.92/barrel, a 1.43% decline, at $63.52/barrel. - SC2512 crude futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.95% decline, at 457.70 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage 3.2.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All listed arbitrage paths are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$1.93/barrel to -$8.33/barrel. Trade flows vary by grade, with some having no recent flows and others having specific October trade volumes [2][4]. 3.2.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Several arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces ranging from $0.01/barrel to $8.44/barrel. Some paths have specific trade volumes in October, while others have no recent trade flows [4]. 3.2.3 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces ranging from $0.1/barrel to $2.08/barrel, while one is closed with an arbitrage space of -$0.34/barrel. Trade flow data is referenced from various sources and adjusted [5]. 3.2.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All listed arbitrage paths are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$4.93/barrel to -$9.94/barrel [6][7]. 3.2.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces of $1.66/barrel and $2.75/barrel, while others are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$1.27/barrel to -$2.92/barrel. Trade flows vary by origin and destination [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - EIA reports show changes in US crude oil exports, production, inventories, and product supplies in the week ending October 31. - There are changes in US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories, as well as gasoline and heating oil inventories. - US ADP employment numbers for October are reported. - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined product inventories change in the week ending November 5. - China and the US adjust tariff and non - tariff measures, starting to implement the results of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [9][11].

Report Title - Crude Oil: Likely to Decline Again, Try Shorting on Rallies [1] Report Date - November 5, 2025 [1] Analyst Information - Analyst: Huang Liunan - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015892 - Email: huangliunan@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Crude oil prices may decline again, and it is advisable to try shorting on rallies [1] Summary by Section International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.49 per barrel, a 0.80% decline, at $60.56 per barrel - Brent December crude oil futures closed down $0.45 per barrel, a 0.69% decline, at $64.44 per barrel - SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 0.90 yuan per barrel, a 0.19% decline, at 464.30 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All arbitrage opportunities between WTI MEH and other benchmark crudes are closed due to negative refinery values, price differences, and other factors [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Bonny Light has open arbitrage opportunities with Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals, while it is closed with Cabinda [2][4] - **Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties has open arbitrage opportunities with Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light, but it is closed with WTI MEH [4] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All arbitrage opportunities for Urals are closed due to negative refinery values and price differences [5][6] - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Tapis has open arbitrage opportunities with Bonny Light and Eagle Ford, while it is closed with Murban, Dubai, WTI MEH [6] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 31 increased by 6521 thousand barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 4020 thousand barrels - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown is likely to become the longest in history - Libya's oil minister plans to increase oil production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years - TotalEnergies CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no shortage of investment in the oil market - The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US needs to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Temporary hold [5] 2. Core View - The report provides an analysis of the international crude oil market, including price changes, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - WTI December crude oil futures rose $0.07/barrel, or 0.11%, to $61.05/barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $0.12/barrel, or 0.19%, to $64.89/barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 1.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.41%, to 467.10 yuan/barrel [3] 3.2 Regional Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: All compared oil types' arbitrage windows are closed, mainly due to factors such as high cost and weak demand [4] - **Atlantic**: Forties, Saharan Blend, and Urals have open arbitrage windows, while Arab Extra Light and Cabinda are closed [6] - **Northwest Europe**: Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage windows, while WTI MEH and Eagle Ford are closed [7] - **Mediterranean**: All compared oil types' arbitrage windows are closed, mainly due to the strong competitiveness of Russian oil [8] - **Asia**: Bonny Light and Eagle Ford have open arbitrage windows, while Murban, Dubai, and WTI MEH are closed [9] 3.3 Key Market News - The EU will provide emergency energy assistance to Ukraine and is studying financial aid plans [9] - Syria's energy ministry announced a tender to purchase 7 million barrels of light crude oil [9] - Malaysia's national oil company plans to increase production to 500,000 barrels per day by the end of the century [9] - Brazil's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [9] - Russia's Tuapse refinery suspended receiving crude oil after a terminal attack [9] - Turkish refiners are reducing Russian crude oil purchases and seeking alternative sources [11] - OPEC Secretary-General expects global oil demand not to peak in the short term [11] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO says oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040 [11] 3.4 Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Temporarily hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to the support of supply tightness in Northeast Asia for SC crude oil [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [9] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures closed down $1.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.89%, at $60.15 per barrel - Brent December crude oil futures closed down $1.22 per barrel, a decrease of 1.86%, at $64.40 per barrel - SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 8.30 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.78%, at 458.10 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Most arbitrage windows are closed, and there is no significant arbitrage advantage for most types of crude oil [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Some arbitrage windows are open, such as for British Forties and Algerian Saharan Blend [4] - **Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Some arbitrage windows are open, such as for Azeri Light and Saharan Blend [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All arbitrage windows are closed [6][7] - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Some arbitrage windows are open, such as for Ecuadorian Napo and US Mars [7] Key Market News - China's Xinjiang Jimusar shale oil demonstration area has an annual output of over 1.5 million tons for the first time this year - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.02 million barrels in the week ending October 24 - US API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.735 million barrels in the week ending October 24 - Saudi Aramco CEO expects oil demand growth of 1.1 to 1.4 million barrels per day next year - The US acknowledges that Rosneft's business in Germany is independent of its Russian parent company - An executive of Indian Oil Corporation says they will not completely stop buying Russian crude oil [8]