原油：短期关注极端上行风险 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 4 月原油期货收涨 1.81 美元/桶，环比+2.78%，报 67.02 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 04 合约收涨 1.73 美元/桶，环比+2.45%，报 72.48 美元/桶;SC2604 原油期货收涨 3.60 美元，涨幅 0.74%，报 489.80 元/桶。 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 2 日 1、 墨西哥湾市场原油套利 | 原油 | 当前状态与 价差 | 价差环比变 化 (较 1 | 价差变化核心驱动原因 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ($/Bbl) | 月) | | | Arab | | | 价差环比下跌。主因原油价格劣势（Delta Crude Price） | | Extra | 关闭: -4.70 | -0.85 | | | Light | | | 从 2.11 扩大至 3.25，是主要拖累。 | | Arab | 关闭: -6.29 | -1.36 | 价差环比下跌。炼油价值持续深度为负（-3. ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 原油：短期观望，继续关注中东局势 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 4 月原油期货收跌 0.21 美元/桶，环比-0.32%，报 65.21 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 04 合约收跌 0.10 美元/桶，环比-0.14%，报 70.75 美元/桶;SC2604 原油期货收涨 3.60 美元，涨幅 0.74%，报 489.80 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾市场原油套利 | 原油 | 当前状态与 价差 | 价差环比变 化 (较 1 | 价差变化核心驱动原因 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ($/Bbl) | 月) | | | Arab Extra | 关闭: -4.70 | -0.85 | 价差环比下跌。主因原油价格劣势（Delta Crude Price） | | | | | 从 2.11 扩大至 3.25，是主要拖累。 | | Light | | | | | Arab | 关闭: -6.29 | -1.36 | 价差环比下跌。炼油价值持续深度为负 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, with a short - term focus on potential conflicts between the US and Iran. It also analyzes the arbitrage situation of different crude oils in various markets and presents some key market news [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures closed down 0.21 dollars, a 0.32% decline, at 65.42 dollars per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed up 0.08 dollars, a 0.11% increase, at 70.85 dollars per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down 3.10 dollars, a 0.63% decline, at 486.50 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different crude oils show various changes in spreads. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread decreased by 1.26 dollars compared to January, mainly due to the significant expansion of the crude price disadvantage. Vasconia's spread turned from negative to positive, rising by 3.65 dollars, mainly driven by the deep discount of crude price [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread decreased by 0.64 dollars compared to January, mainly due to the further deterioration of the refining value relative to Bonny Light. Urals' spread increased by 2.11 dollars, and the arbitrage space is huge, driven by the further expansion of its crude price advantage relative to Bonny Light [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread narrowed slightly, with a decrease of 0.14 dollars compared to January, mainly due to the slight weakening of the trans - Atlantic freight and the crude price advantage. Azeri Light's spread increased significantly by 2.68 dollars, driven by strong refining value and a shift to a price advantage [6]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread increased slightly (the negative value decreased) by 0.45 dollars compared to January. Bonny Light's spread decreased by 1.87 dollars, due to the expansion of Urals' price advantage and high freight [7]. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri's spread increased by 0.38 dollars compared to January, as the negative degree of the refining value slightly weakened. Napo's spread narrowed by 2.06 dollars but still remained at a high level, driven by its huge crude price discount relative to Dubai [8]. Key Market News - Russia may lower the oil price under the budget rule to 45 - 50 dollars per barrel. There are ongoing discussions between the US and Iran on nuclear issues, and if an agreement is reached, the US hopes to conduct follow - up negotiations on Iran's missile program and its support for proxy armed organizations [10][12]. Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news. It indicates that geopolitical factors are heating up, and the short - term crude oil market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%, at $66.39 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed up $0.10 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, at $71.76 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $20.30, a decline of 4.22%, at $460.70 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different types of crude oils have different current states and spread changes. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread closed at -$4.66, with a month - on - month decline due to a significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage. Vasconia's spread turned positive, with a significant month - on - month increase driven by a deep discount in crude oil price [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread closed at -$2.51, with a month - on - month decline due to disadvantages in refining value and crude oil price compared to Bonny Light. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, with a positive refining value, lower freight, and a significant price advantage [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread opened at $1.74, with a month - on - month increase. The high trans - Atlantic freight was offset by a significant crude oil price advantage. Azeri Light's spread increased significantly, driven by a strong refining value and a significant price advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread closed at -$20.79, with a month - on - month increase (the negative value decreased) because the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals weakened. Similar reasons led to the increase in the spreads of other crude oils in the region [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri's spread closed at -$2.03, with a month - on - month decline due to a significantly negative refining value. Napo's spread opened at $8.57, narrowing month - on - month but still at a high level, driven by a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai [7] Key Market News - The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" on six industries. The National Energy Administration will release and implement a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans. Regarding the Iran issue, Trump prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than going to war. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia [10] Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that there is a recurrence of liquidity risk in the crude oil market, suggesting a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures fell $1.79, a 2.77% drop, to $62.84 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 fell $1.88, a 2.71% drop, to $67.52 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures fell $24.70, a 5.14% drop, to $456.30 per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils showed various changes. For example, the spread of Arab Extra Light was basically stable, while that of Forties deteriorated significantly. The changes were affected by factors such as refining value and crude oil price [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils also had different trends. For instance, the spread of Forties worsened, while that of Saharan Blend widened significantly, driven by factors like refining value, crude oil price, and freight [3]. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of alternative crude oils generally improved. For example, the spread of WTI MEH improved slightly, mainly due to significant crude oil price advantages offsetting high trans - Atlantic freight [4]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved to varying degrees, such as Saharan Blend and Azeri Light, mainly due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage. However, the spread of Ekofisk remained basically unchanged [5]. China Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different changes. The spread of Napo widened significantly due to a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai, while the spread of Duri deteriorated due to a negative refining value [6]. Key Market News - US President Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, warning of a "very serious" situation if not. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela, and the US has completed over $1 billion in Venezuelan oil sales, expecting an additional $5 billion. Russia has proposed "re - embracing the dollar" as part of an economic partnership with the US. A Russian refinery stopped oil processing after a drone attack [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report has a "Neutral" rating for the short - term, with the view that geopolitical risks are driving the market to be "relatively strong", and suggests short - term observation [1] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving the crude oil market to be relatively strong, and short - term observation is recommended [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $0.67, or 1.05%, to $64.63 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $0.60, or 0.87%, to $69.40 per barrel. SC2604 crude oil futures rose $3.90, or 0.82%, to $479.80 per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Spread Analysis - **General Spread Changes**: The spreads of different types of crude oil showed various trends. Some spreads deteriorated due to factors such as negative refining value and price disadvantages, while others improved. For example, the spread of Forties deteriorated significantly with a - $1.82 change compared to January, mainly due to a sharp increase in the crude price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of several alternative crude oils improved. Napo's spread improved significantly with a $4.67 change compared to January, mainly due to an extremely deep price discount [4] - **North - West European Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of various alternative crude oils improved, and the arbitrage windows became more favorable. For example, the spread of Saharan Blend widened significantly with a $3.08 change compared to January, driven by refining value and significant price advantages [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved (negative values decreased), but some windows remained deeply closed. For example, the spread of Azeri Light improved significantly with a $2.27 change compared to January due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage [6][7] - **Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different trends. Napo's spread widened significantly with a $5.31 change compared to January, mainly due to a large price discount relative to Dubai [7] 3.3 Key Market News - The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 6 was 853 million barrels, higher than the expected 79.3 million barrels and the previous value of - 345.5 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 107.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 74.3 million barrels [9] - The U.S. Energy Secretary expects a significant increase in Venezuela's oil, gas, and electricity production this year. Morgan Stanley expects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2 million barrels per day in the coming years [10] - The U.S. President Trump mentioned the negotiation with Iran, and Iran's top security official said that Iran is consulting with the U.S. to determine the next round of negotiation time [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The international crude oil market is in a temporary oscillating pattern, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.85, a 2.84% decline, at $63.29 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed down $1.91, a 2.75% decline, at $67.55 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $3.50, a 0.75% decline, at 463.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light vs WTI MEH: spread -$3.69,环比 up 0.1, long - term negative but showing improvement [2] - Arab Light vs WTI MEH: spread -$4.94,环比 down - 0.06, continuous negative with deteriorating trend [2] - Nemba vs WTI MEH: spread -$5.13,环比 down - 0.14, negative fluctuation, difficult for arbitrage [2] - Agbami vs WTI MEH: spread -$6.67,环比 down - 0.15, deep negative, no arbitrage opportunity [2] - Forties vs WTI MEH: spread -$10.37,环比 down - 0.55, extremely negative, significant deterioration [2] - Arab Heavy vs Mars: spread -$3.46,环比 down - 0.13, negative and stable, small arbitrage space [2] - Vasconia vs Mars: spread -$0.07,环比 up 0.8, near - zero fluctuation, limited opportunity [2] - Castilla vs Mars: spread -$2.71,环比 up 1.2, negative but with significant improvement [2] - Napo vs Mars: spread -$6.94,环比 down - 1.48, deep negative, no opportunity [2] - Maya vs Mars: spread -$0.79,环比 up 1.38, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity emerging [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties vs Bonny Light: spread -$2.74,环比 up 0.24, continuous deep negative, still no arbitrage opportunity [4] - Arab Extra Light vs Bonny Light: spread $0.76,环比 down - 0.12, fluctuating around zero, limited opportunity [4] - Saharan Blend vs Bonny Light: spread $6.02,环比 up 0.59, significantly positive and improving, strong arbitrage opportunity [4] - Cabinda vs Bonny Light: spread -$3.49,环比 down - 0.14, deep negative, no arbitrage possibility [4] - Urals vs Bonny Light: spread $24.47,环比 down - 0.01, extremely positive, huge arbitrage space [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH vs Forties: spread $1.44,环比 down - 0.16, long - term fluctuating around zero, narrow arbitrage window [6] - Eagle Ford vs Forties: spread $1.77,环比 down - 0.11, similar to WTI MEH trend, slight opportunity [6] - Azeri Light vs Forties: spread $3.36,环比 down - 0.15, continuously positive and relatively high, opportunity exists [6] - Saharan Blend vs Forties: spread $3.46,环比 down - 0.05, similar to Azeri Light, best performance, stable [6] - Bonny Light vs Forties: spread $2.94,环比 down - 0.25, remaining positive, opportunity still exists [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend vs Urals: spread -$21.64,环比 up 1.17, deep negative, still no opportunity [7] - Azeri Light vs Urals: spread -$20.06,环比 up 1.62, long - term negative, slight improvement [7] - Bonny Light vs Urals: spread -$22.4,环比 up 0.81, extremely negative, still deteriorating [7] - Ekofisk vs Urals: spread -$26.57,环比 up 0.51, extremely negative, no space [7] - Eagle Ford vs Urals: spread -$24,环比 up 0.78, deep negative, still negative trend [7] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri vs Dubai: spread -$2.48,环比 up 0.56, negative but with limited opportunity [8] - Basrah Heavy vs Dubai: spread -$1.06,环比 up 0.3, long - term negative, stable [8] - Napo vs Dubai: spread $3.46,环比 down - 0.08, positive, opportunity exists [8] - Maya vs Dubai: spread -$0.29,环比 up 0.87, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity emerging [8] - Mars vs Dubai: spread $0.05,环比 up 0.06, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity [8] Key Market News - Saudi Arabia cut the prices of its main crude grades sold to Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply exceeds demand. Saudi Aramco cut the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel [8] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived in Oman [8] - On February 4, Wan Jinsong, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration of China, met with Joao Claudio de Oliveira Ferreira, the CEO of Petrobras. Both sides discussed cooperation in oil and gas, renewable energy, and energy transition [8] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Geopolitical risks continue to drive up oil prices, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to settle at $65.14 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $2.13, or 3.16%, to settle at $69.46 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $15.20, or 3.32%, to settle at $473.50 per barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The refining value difference and crude oil price difference slightly deteriorated for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Extra Light, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.89 (closed) and a spread change of -0.34 [2] - The arbitrage window for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Light remained closed and stable, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.00 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [2] - The economic efficiency of West African crude oil for WTI MEH (cracking) and Nemba did not significantly improve, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.19 (closed) and a spread change of -0.19 [2] - The situation for Mars (coking) and Arab Heavy slightly improved, possibly due to the narrowing of the heavy crude oil discount, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.38 (closed) and a spread change of 0.75 [2] - The arbitrage window for Mars (coking) and Vasconia marginally improved and remained open, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.19 [2] - The price disadvantage for Mars (coking) and Castilla narrowed, but the arbitrage remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$2.42 (closed) and a spread change of 0.41 [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The price disadvantage of North Sea crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Forties widened, and the arbitrage window deepened and closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.31 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [4] - The price advantage of Algerian crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Saharan Blend significantly expanded, and the arbitrage space increased greatly, with an arbitrage incentive of $5.26 (open) and a spread change of 2.19 [4] - The price discount of Russian oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Urals remained huge, and the arbitrage window remained at an extremely high level, with an arbitrage incentive of $24.43 (open) and a spread change of -1.21 [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic freight decreased or the spread widened for Forties (cracking) and WTI MEH, and the economic efficiency increased, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.87 [4] - Similar to the trend of WTI MEH, the arbitrage conditions for Forties (cracking) and Eagle Ford improved, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.32 (open) and a spread change of 0.78 [4] - The West African crude oil arbitrage window for Forties (cracking) and Bonny Light was stable with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of $3.63 (open) and a spread change of -0.01 [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Russian oil's dominant position for Urals (cracking) and Saharan Blend was stable, and the arbitrage window of other oil types remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.31 (closed) and a spread change of 0.1 [5] - The spread slightly deteriorated for Urals (cracking) and Azeri Light, but the Russian oil - dominated pattern remained unchanged, with an arbitrage incentive of -$20.46 (closed) and a spread change of -0.28 [5] - The arbitrage conditions of West African oil for Urals (cracking) and Bonny Light marginally improved but were still uncompetitive, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.54 (closed) and a spread change of 0.22 [5] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - The competitive disadvantage of Murban relative to ESPO (cracking) further expanded, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.13 (closed) and a spread change of -1.38 [6] - The arbitrage window for ESPO (cracking) and Bonny Light deepened and closed, lacking economic efficiency, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.33 (closed) and a spread change of -0.79 [6] - North Sea crude oil for ESPO (cracking) and Forties maintained a deep disadvantage with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.20 (closed) and a spread change of -0.26 [6] Key Market News - An Iranian senior source said that the US leaking the news of canceling negotiations showed a lack of sincerity, and Iran would not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue [6] - The Iranian foreign minister said that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations were scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman, at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Affected by the repeated news, oil prices gave back half of the previous gains [6] - An Iranian official source said that the Iran - US negotiations originally scheduled for the 6th in Oman had been canceled due to new conditions imposed by the US and differences between the two sides on negotiation issues [6] - OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's average daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela [6] - The Trump administration said that the US had agreed to cooperate with Japan, Mexico, and the EU to jointly develop key mineral resources for industries such as defense [7] Trend Strength - The crude oil trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that crude oil prices rebounded driven by macro and geopolitical sentiments, and suggests holding short positions lightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.07, or 1.72%, to $63.21 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $1.03, or 1.55%, to $67.33 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $8.00, or 1.78%, to $457.80 per barrel [1]. European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra: Spread -$3.68, closed, spread change -$0.34, due to weakened price advantage of Middle - East crude oil and further deterioration of the arbitrage window [2]. - Arab Light: Spread -$5.01, closed, spread change -$0.38, due to continuous disadvantage in refining value and no improvement in price difference [2]. - Nemba: Spread -$5.69, closed, spread change -$0.19, due to high freight of West - African crude oil and no improvement in economy [2]. - Forties: Spread -$11.02, closed, spread change -$0.55, due to expanded price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and wider spread with WTI MEH [2]. - Arab Heavy: Spread -$3.41, closed, spread change +$0.75, with slight improvement possibly due to looser prices of Middle - East heavy oil [2]. - Vasconia: Spread -$0.95, closed, spread change +$0.19, with marginal improvement in arbitrage of Latin - American heavy oil but still in a loss state [2]. - Napo: Spread -$6.78, closed, spread change +$0.41, with possible narrowing of price decline but the arbitrage window still deeply in the red [2]. - Maya: Spread -$1.1, closed, spread change +$1.24, with significant improvement in refining value or price of Mexican heavy oil [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread -$2.89, closed, spread change +$1.39, with narrowed price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and significant improvement in arbitrage but still negative [4]. - Arab Extra Light: Spread $1.29, open, spread change -$0.54, with narrowed arbitrage space of Middle - East light oil possibly due to rising freight [4]. - Saharan Blend: Spread $5.01, open, spread change +$2.19, with significantly expanded price advantage of Algerian crude oil and increased arbitrage space [4]. - Urals: Spread $24.54, open, spread change -$1.21, with a huge price discount of Russian oil and the arbitrage window remaining at an extremely high level [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread $1.27, open, spread change +$0.87, with enhanced economy due to decreased trans - Atlantic freight or expanded US - Europe spread [4]. - Eagle Ford: Spread $1.56, open, spread change +$0.78, with improved arbitrage conditions for shale oil, consistent with the trend of WTI MEH [4]. - Azeri Light: Spread $3.36, open, spread change -$0.26, with stable and slightly narrowed arbitrage space for Azerbaijani light oil [4]. - Bonny Light: Spread $3.71, open, spread change -$0.01, with a stable arbitrage window for West - African light oil and little change [4]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread -$22.47, closed, spread change +$0.1, with a stable dominant position of Russian oil and continuously closed arbitrage space for other oil types [5]. - Azeri Light: Spread -$20.89, closed, spread change -$0.28, with a slight deterioration in spread and unchanged dominance of Russian oil [5]. - Eagle Ford: Spread -$25.21, closed, spread change +$1.26, with marginal improvement in arbitrage conditions for US crude oil but still uncompetitive [6]. - Ekofisk Ford: Spread -$27.15, closed, spread change +$0.22, with slight improvement in North - Sea crude oil but unchanged absolute disadvantage [6]. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread -$2.97, closed, spread change +$2.13, with significant narrowing of the arbitrage window due to improved price or freight of Indonesian heavy oil [6]. - Basrah Heavy: Spread -$1.08, closed, spread change -$0.21, with a slight deterioration in arbitrage conditions for Iraqi heavy oil [6]. - Napo: Spread $3.62, open, spread change +$1.85, with significantly expanded arbitrage space for Ecuadorian heavy oil possibly due to deeper discounts [6]. - Maya: Spread $0.01, open, spread change +$0.99, with the arbitrage window reopening for Mexican heavy oil [6]. - Mars: Spread -$0.21, closed, spread change +$0.44, with improved arbitrage for US medium - quality oil but still not profitable [6]. Key Market News - The US government is preparing to issue a general license to allow companies to extract oil in Venezuela, which is part of a plan to relax sanctions and revive the country's stagnant energy industry [7]. - Iran has entered the highest state of defense readiness [7]. - OPEC+ expects an increase in oil demand in spring and summer [7]. - Brazil's oil production in December reached 4.015 million barrels per day, a 17.4% year - on - year increase, and the production in 2025 reached a record of 3.77 million barrels per day, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [7]. - The daily oil production of Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oilfield increased from 118,000 barrels on January 31 to 183,000 barrels on February 1, and the production of the Tengri oilfield is expected to reach 430,000 barrels per day on February 4 [7]. - Iran cancelled a planned live - fire military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz after receiving a warning from the US [7]. - Negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, and Iran is willing to take action. If diplomatic efforts fail, Trump still retains the option of taking military action [9]. - Trump does not want to repeat the "Midnight Hammer" operation against Iran [11]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 30 was - 11.079 million barrels (previous value - 247,000 barrels, expected - 256,000 barrels); API Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.394 million barrels (previous value - 92,000 barrels) [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that due to geopolitical easing, crude oil may enter a weak phase. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures closed down $0.21/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of -0.32%, at $65.21/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 closed down $0.02/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of -0.03%, at $70.69/barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $12.90, a decline of 2.67%, at $470.00/barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties in different regions all have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including price disadvantages, refining value disadvantages, and high freight costs [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties in the North Sea has a closed arbitrage state due to a significant refining value disadvantage despite a tariff advantage [3] Southeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI in the US has a closed arbitrage state due to freight costs; Eagle Ford in the US has an open arbitrage state, relying on its refining value advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all have a closed arbitrage state, mainly due to the price advantage of Urals [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford in different regions all have a closed arbitrage state, with price disadvantages and high freight costs being the main reasons [7] Key Market News - US and Iranian senior officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions. Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear plan. The US will cancel the 25% additional tariff on Indian imports due to India's reduced purchase of Russian oil [10]