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光伏主产业链一季度续亏:负债攀升叠加需求退潮,跌价拉响现金流警报
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 11:20
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant challenges, including heavy losses in the main production chain and rising debt levels, despite some signs of reduced losses after production cuts [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has not fully escaped the capacity dilemma, with major losses still prevalent in the main production chain (silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules) [1]. - In the first quarter, 18 out of 21 listed companies in the photovoltaic main production chain reported losses, with larger manufacturers facing more severe losses [1][3]. - The "430 node" has passed, leading to a significant decline in demand and a drop in prices across the industry chain, with silicon material and wafer prices falling sharply [1][7]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter, 17 companies in the photovoltaic main production chain reported positive growth in net profit, with TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, and JA Solar seeing growth rates exceeding 50% [3]. - Despite some companies reducing losses, the overall reversal point for profitability in the photovoltaic industry remains unclear, and concerns about cash flow crises persist [3][6]. Debt Levels - The asset-liability ratio of the photovoltaic industry continues to rise, with the median asset-liability ratio of 21 listed companies reaching 73.27% by the end of the first quarter, an increase of 4.61 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - Leading manufacturers like Tongwei Co. and TCL Zhonghuan have seen significant increases in their debt ratios, with Tongwei's ratio reaching 72.25%, up 12.98 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The total short-term borrowings of 21 photovoltaic companies reached a record high of 635.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The end of the installation rush has led to a decline in downstream demand, causing prices to drop across the industry chain [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the photovoltaic industry may face a painful adjustment period due to uncertain investment returns and a lack of clear signs of price stabilization [7][8]. - The current market conditions, characterized by low trading activity and excess inventory, are challenging for many silicon material companies, prompting some to consider production cuts [7][8].