格隆汇10月11日｜华鑫证券研报指出，特变电工主营业务包括输变电业务、新能源业务、能源业务及新 材料业务。25H1归母净利润31.8亿元，同比+5.0%，25Q2单季归母净利润15.8亿元，同比+52.5%，环 比-1.0%。输变电订单高增，中标沙特大单，中标总金额约164亿元，执行时间7年，最低执行量为 70%，为公司未来海外收入提供坚实支撑。硅料盈利承压，煤炭和新材料保持稳定。此外，公司黄金项 目2021年起开始产出，产品为成品金和精金粉，年产量（金金属量）约2.5~3吨，形成业绩贡献。公司 输变电业务订单高增并中标沙特大单，整体业绩保持稳健，首次覆盖，给予"买入"投资评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the following companies: GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK), Hewei Electric (603063 CH), Sany Renewable Energy (688349 CH), Daqo New Energy (688303 CH), and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438 CH) [6][8] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding measures to combat price disorder in the market, which is expected to support the wind and solar industries [1][2] - Wind power is identified as a leading sector in the new energy industry, benefiting from improved bidding rules and a continuous recovery in turbine prices, with an average bidding price of 1616 RMB/kW in June 2025, up 5.8% from December 2024 [2] - Silicon materials are emphasized as a key focus for the solar industry, with prices for N-type silicon materials rising by 53.3% to 53,200 RMB/ton as of September 2025, driven by industry self-discipline and top-level design [2] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines specific measures to regulate pricing behavior, including ensuring that operators do not bid below cost and establishing industry cost benchmarks [1] - The implementation of legal and regulatory penalties for non-compliance is expected to drive a steady improvement in market order [1] Investment Opportunities - The report expresses optimism about investment opportunities in wind and solar sectors, driven by a combination of domestic supply-side reforms and international demand growth due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] - Recommended stocks include Sany Renewable Energy, Hewei Electric, GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [3][6] Company Performance - GCL-Poly Energy is expected to benefit from strategic financing and industry consolidation, with a target price of 2.22 HKD [9] - Hewei Electric reported a 36.39% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2025, with a target price of 48.05 RMB [9] - Sany Renewable Energy's revenue grew by 62.75% in H1 2025, with a target price of 38.01 RMB [9] - Daqo New Energy's financial resilience is highlighted despite losses, with a target price of 33.84 RMB [9] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from ongoing industry reforms, with a target price of 25.39 RMB [10]

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 核心结论 分析师 【固定收益】债市角度看上市银行中报系列之一：高息存款重定价：规模测 算与影响探析 随着高息存款重定价后，10 年国债收益率与银行负债成本之间的倒挂态势， 后续或将逐步消除。 【策略】资产的信号（20251002）：黄金：第三浪，启动！ 1971 年布雷顿森林体系崩溃，美元信用裂痕扩张，金价 10 年 10 倍；直到 1980 年石油美元体系正式确立，美元信用再次确立，金价才见顶回落。类 似的，当前随着美元信用裂痕持续扩张，金价将开启长期牛市。我们判断： 重启降息意味着美联储独立性受损，未来美联储独立性会持续受到损害，黄 金的储备价值将进一步彰显，目前处于第 3 波主升浪行情早期。 【多元金融】数金掘金系列报告一：TO C 金融科技板块行情复盘与未来展 望 持续关注流动性充裕+风险偏好改善下 TOC 金融科技板块投资机会，未来技 术与流量仍是竞争核心驱动。金融信息服务商作为强贝塔板块，增量资金持 续入市有望进一步打开其业务成长空间，从而迎来盈利和估值双击。个股方 面，我们推荐基本面表现优异，具备牌照及平台优势的东方财富、有望通过 吸并大 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The price of silicon materials has stabilized at a high level, supporting the differentiated performance of silicon wafers [1][2] - Battery cells are showing a steady upward trend with localized price increases, while module prices remain stable overall [1][2] - Domestic demand release is helping to maintain the resilience of the industry chain despite disturbances in the overseas market [1][2] Group 2: Wind Power - Major offshore wind power projects are being awarded, including a 1GW project by China Power Construction and a 1.2GW project by China Datang [3] - The industry chain is experiencing high prosperity driven by both domestic and international project advancements [3] Group 3: Energy Storage - Domestic policies are promoting growth in the independent energy storage market, with significant demand in Europe and emerging markets [4] - The hydrogen energy sector is developing positively, with reduced financing difficulties and national support for new technology research [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicles - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 3 billion units from January to August 2025, marking an 18.66% year-on-year increase [6] - The extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo and remaining quotas are influencing the market dynamics [6] Group 5: Robotics and AI - Figure has completed over $1 billion in financing, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications [7] - Upcoming internal meetings at Tesla regarding robotics and autonomous driving may catalyze further developments in the sector [7] Group 6: Electric Grid Equipment - Alibaba plans to increase its capital expenditure beyond the initial 380 billion yuan, indicating a significant investment in infrastructure [5] - The energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold by 2032 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang has achieved significant economic progress over the past 70 years, with its capital market reflecting this growth, as evidenced by the total market capitalization of over 900 billion yuan for 61 listed companies as of August 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - As of August 2023, Xinjiang's 61 listed companies have a total market capitalization exceeding 900 billion yuan, with projected total revenue surpassing 300 billion yuan and net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan by mid-2025 [1]. - More than half of the listed companies in Xinjiang have announced cash dividend plans, with an expected total dividend amount exceeding 11 billion yuan [1]. - The capital market in Xinjiang is evolving, breaking regional limitations and integrating into the national market, with companies leveraging various financing tools to strengthen their core businesses [1][5]. Group 2: Historical Progression - The entry of Xinjiang companies into the capital market began in 1994 with Xin Hongxin, followed by significant listings such as Goldwind Technology in 2007 and Daqo New Energy in 2021, marking a transition to high-quality development [4][5]. - By August 2025, Xinjiang is expected to have 61 listed companies, ranking among the top in the northwest region [4]. Group 3: Quality and Performance - As of mid-2025, Xinjiang's listed companies reported total assets of approximately 34,554.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, and net assets of 8,891.01 billion yuan, up 1.57% [5]. - The total operating revenue reached 3,346.51 billion yuan, with 28 companies reporting net profit growth, including 15 companies with increases exceeding 30% [5]. - Key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, and finance have shown significant profit growth, with respective increases of 30.22%, 111.34%, 47.87%, and 33% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Companies like Daqo New Energy are leading the silicon material industry, optimizing production capacity in response to market conditions, while Guanghui Energy is transitioning towards green energy with a clear hydrogen energy development strategy [6][9]. - The capital market is facilitating resource integration and value enhancement in Xinjiang's energy and mineral sectors, creating a virtuous cycle of strengthening enterprises, upgrading industries, and increasing capital value [9][10]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the growth, Xinjiang's listed companies face challenges such as small overall scale and insufficient bargaining power in mergers and acquisitions [11]. - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to enhance policy guidance, encourage companies to focus on core businesses, and improve restructuring efficiency [11].

khz yuppidicate seems 快看,光伏硅料价格持续 上涨一个多月了!这"反 内卷" 真这么灵吗? "反内卷"政策持续,行情 已经展开。这次可不是简 单去产能,而是全国一盘 棋。看懂政策红利,才能 抓住真正的长线机会! 这次"反内卷"有什么不 -样? 这次站位更高、覆盖面 更广、协同更强,布局 正当时! 份公是 "吃苦"? 企业拼命投入 不提升效率,只顾压价抢市场 最后全行业亏损 别挤啦!电梯超载,谁都 没法上楼! 为什么要"凤内能" ? "内卷"不仅让企业利润暴跌、现金流紧张 更让整个行业陷入低水平重复建设 技术升级受阻,资源严重错配 创新停滞,资源浪费 反内卷不是"保护落后", 1. 新能源制造链 从价格端转向技术端,光伏、硅料、玻璃、锂电池 等具备技术迭代能力的龙头将胜出。 2. 传统周期品 而是"清理赛道",能让好 企业跑得更快! "反応差" 新政事何敢意? 本轮"反内卷"，站位 更高、产业更"新" l 覆盖面更广、协同更 强、导向更长远! 政策站位:从"行业去产能" 升级为"全国统一大市场建设" 纳入顶层部署 主题升级为"纵深推进全国统一大市场" 强调"五统一、一开放" 不再局限于个别 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing challenges such as overcapacity and price wars, but recent policy measures are expected to drive a transition towards high-quality development and create investment opportunities in photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, and lithium battery sectors [2][17]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a recovery driven by rising raw material prices, with leading companies showing significant performance elasticity [2][4]. - From July 2025, policies promoting industry self-discipline have led several photovoltaic companies to reduce production, alleviating supply pressure and restoring market confidence [3]. - The shift from a "price war" to a "value war" is evident as prices for core materials like silicon and photovoltaic modules have increased [4]. - Capital markets have reacted positively, with companies like Youyan New Materials and Feilu Co., Ltd. seeing their stock prices double within six months [7]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage market is witnessing robust demand, with domestic and international markets showing resilience and growth potential [8]. - The domestic energy storage market is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2025, while overseas markets continue to thrive despite short-term fluctuations [8][10]. - The energy storage index is on an upward trend, with leading companies like Sungrow Power seeing stock prices increase significantly [10]. Wind Power Industry - The domestic offshore wind power sector is set for rapid growth, with expected installation capacity reaching 10 GW in 2025, doubling year-on-year [11]. - The overseas offshore wind market is also performing well, with new installations projected to reach 5-6 GW in 2025 [11]. - The wind turbine sector is anticipated to experience a profitability recovery, supported by stabilized pricing and improved operational efficiency [14]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery industry continues to show strong demand, particularly for solid-state batteries, which are seen as a key area for technological advancement [15][16]. - Solid-state batteries are expected to enhance safety and energy density, opening new growth avenues for the industry [16]. Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies should focus on leading companies with strong core technologies and cost control in the photovoltaic sector, as well as those benefiting from rising raw material prices [18]. - In the energy storage and wind power sectors, priority should be given to companies with strong global competitiveness and performance delivery capabilities [22]. - For the lithium battery sector, attention should be directed towards key segments of the solid-state battery supply chain, particularly those with high technical barriers [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20% decline in silicon material prices, forecasting a drop to 42,000 yuan/ton due to weak demand and cost reductions among major producers [3][4][5] - The report anticipates a 15% increase in capital expenditure plans for photovoltaic companies for 2025-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -49% and 0% respectively [2][3] - The upstream supply chain remains weak, with a generally pessimistic outlook, while there is a more favorable view on auxiliary materials and high-efficiency component companies [2][3] Group 2 - Demand for silicon materials is expected to decrease by 40-45% in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, according to Goldman Sachs [3][5] - Despite a decrease in cash costs for leading silicon producers, overall costs remain high, with major producers still facing significant losses [4][5] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics and policies may lead to a stabilization of demand, despite short-term declines [5][6] Group 3 - The profitability of auxiliary materials is closely tied to the overall profitability of components, which is currently under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances [10][11] - High-efficiency components are experiencing premium pricing, but this is limited to high-end markets due to funding constraints [10][11] - The overall health of the photovoltaic industry is contingent on the upstream supply chain's ability to manage production and pricing effectively [11][12] Group 4 - The report from Goldman Sachs is viewed skeptically by industry analysts, who believe it underestimates demand and the complexities of cost structures [12][14] - The ongoing industry reforms are expected to bring the sector back to a breakeven point, but long-term profitability remains uncertain due to competitive pressures and market dynamics [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery commercialization, driven by new model releases and the upcoming sales peak for new energy vehicles, with expectations for domestic sales to maintain high growth through 2025, boosting demand for batteries and materials [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes a "anti-involution" strategy as the main investment theme, with rising prices for upstream materials such as silicon, wafers, and batteries, and a focus on the economic viability of photovoltaic power stations [1] - The report notes a high demand for energy storage, with a target of 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, suggesting a focus on large-scale integrated storage manufacturers [1] - In the hydrogen energy sector, the report mentions ongoing projects for green liquid fuel technology and the establishment of integrated hydrogen and ammonia projects, indicating potential premium pricing for green fuels in the early stages of development [1] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report anticipates continued high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales, driven by new model releases and seasonal sales peaks, which will increase demand for batteries and materials [1] Photovoltaic Industry - The report maintains that the photovoltaic investment theme is centered around "anti-involution," with rising prices for upstream materials and a focus on the economic aspects of photovoltaic power generation [1] - The report discusses the impact of new national standards on silicon and germanium energy consumption, which may lead to a contraction in upstream capacity [1] Energy Storage - The report outlines a clear target for new energy storage capacity to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, indicating sustained high demand in the sector [1] - It suggests focusing on large-scale integrated storage manufacturers due to the expected growth in storage needs [1] Hydrogen Energy - The report highlights the development of green liquid fuel technology and integrated hydrogen projects, indicating a potential for premium pricing in the early stages of the green fuel market [1]