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20260224申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260224
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 02:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, polyolefins mainly declined. From a fundamental perspective, the market is currently focused on the expectation of improved supply, and the influence of macro - factors on commodities has increased. In February, polyolefins clearly followed cost fluctuations. Given the current supply - demand situation, the potential volatility of costs is greater, making the market more concerned about the impact of cost fluctuations on the chemical industry. Looking forward to the post - festival market, the driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the focus is on the gradual manifestation of post - Spring Festival resumption of work on the demand side. On the other hand, the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro - factors. Under loose monetary conditions, the impact of changes in the Middle East situation on crude oil and chemical products tends to increase [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6720, 6644, and 6709 respectively, with price drops of - 80 (- 1.18%), - 90 (- 1.34%), and - 72 (- 1.06%) compared to the day before. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6581, 6568, and 6593 respectively, with price drops of - 64 (- 0.96%), - 80 (- 1.20%), and - 81 (- 1.21%) [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 253, 311876, and 28087 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 489, 287737, and 26029 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 1236, 484194, and 67043 respectively, with changes of + 154, - 17121, and - 2589. For PP, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 2955, 454028, and 107908 respectively, with changes of + 282, - 25314, and - 2501 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 76, - 65, and - 11 respectively, compared to previous values of 66, - 47, and - 19. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 13, - 25, and 12 respectively, compared to previous values of - 3, - 26, and 29 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2191 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - Before the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and a Middle Eastern country and due to increased economic uncertainty after the latest US tariffs, international oil prices eased but remained close to a six - month high. On Monday (February 23), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.31 per barrel, down $0.17 (0.26%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.38 - $67.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $71.49 per barrel, down $0.27 (0.38%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $70.69 - $72.50 [2]