1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market showed a pattern of short - covering and price increase this week. The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures will focus on factors such as the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the background of "anti - involution" and "high energy consumption", raw material price changes on the cost side, supply - side production suspension and resumption, and inventory reduction [1]. - The power cost accounts for up to 30% of the production cost structure of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations directly affect the power cost, thus becoming a key factor influencing the price trend of industrial silicon. Recently, there are signs of rising thermal coal prices, and continuous tracking is needed [1]. - The market has a pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals on the supply side. On the demand side, downstream polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, and the current polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The overall market is mainly focused on inventory reduction. There are no new highlights in silicone and aluminum alloy, and the overall situation is still inventory reduction [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon remains weak, and overall inventory reduction is still the main theme. The short - covering price increase on the technical side also confirms the support level of 8,200 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the first pressure level of 9,000 yuan/ton and the second pressure level of 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity, raw material price changes on the cost side, supply - side production suspension and resumption, and inventory reduction [1]. - Coal price fluctuations directly affect the power cost, which is a key factor influencing the price of industrial silicon. Recently, thermal coal prices are rising, and continuous tracking is required [1]. - The supply - side market has a pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals, and the demand side is mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. 3.1.2 Industrial Operation Suggestions - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 45.4% [5]. - For silicon industry enterprises, different risk management strategies are provided for sales, procurement, and inventory management, including futures contracts and option combinations [7]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch - In March, the largest polysilicon project outside China and the first polysilicon factory in the Middle East, the annual 100,000 - ton high - purity silicon - based material project of United Solar Polysilicon Co., Ltd., was completed and the entire process was connected in Suhar, Oman [8]. - On March 5, the 2026 government work report was released [8]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the weighted contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,697 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of +3.51%. The trading volume was about 291,800 lots (week - on - week change of - 10.08%), and the open interest was about 382,500 lots (week - on - week change of - 62,600 lots). The month - spread between SI2605 and SI2609 was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week change of +15 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 20,836 lots, with a week - on - week change of +19 lots [10][11]. - Technically, it shows a pattern of short - covering and price increase. Whether it can reach the first pressure level of 9,000 yuan/ton needs further observation [11]. 3.3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening, and the PCR of option open interest has been weakening. Currently, the volatility of the industrial silicon futures market is at a low level, and opportunities to buy volatility can be focused on [14]. 3.3.3 Capital Trends The cumulative profit and loss and net open - interest changes of key profitable seats in industrial silicon are presented, but specific data are not detailed in the text [16]. 3.3.4 Month - Spread Structure The term structure diagram of industrial silicon shows that the current industrial silicon futures contract is in a contango structure [18]. 3.3.5 Basis Structure The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is generally in a weak state [22]. 3.3.6 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in different regions have different changes. For example, the price of 99 553 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 1.73% [24]. - The prices of mid - stream products such as industrial silicon powder and trichlorosilane, and downstream products such as polysilicon, silicone DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have corresponding price changes [24][25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - The average profit of the industrial silicon industry is gradually weakening, and attention should be paid to the price situation on the cost side [25]. - The profit of the polysilicon industry, the core downstream demand area of industrial silicon, is oscillating downward. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is showing a warming trend [25]. 3.5 Fundamentals 3.5.1 Raw Material Costs - The average prices of national silica, domestic electrodes, domestic petroleum coke, and domestic clean coal are presented, and the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon are shown [31][32][34]. 3.5.2 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and opening rates of industrial silicon from different data sources (such as Baichuan, Steel Union, and SMM) have different changes. For example, the Baichuan - metal silicon weekly total production is 66,050 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.92% [33]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan) and social inventories in different ports (such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port) are presented [48][50][51]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production and opening rates of domestic polysilicon from different data sources (such as SMM and Baichuan) have different changes. For example, the SMM - weekly production is 18,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.05% [52]. - The weekly inventory of domestic polysilicon, including total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, and warehouse receipt inventory, has corresponding changes [54]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly opening rates and inventories of primary and secondary aluminum alloys have different changes. For example, the primary aluminum alloy weekly opening rate is 51.2%, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.24% [57]. - The inventory data of aluminum alloy in different regions and social inventories are presented [60]. 3.5.5 Downstream - Silicone - The weekly production of silicone DMC is 44,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.67% [61]. - The monthly net export and inventory data of silicone are presented [62]. 3.5.6 Terminal - The data of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [64].