1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, ethylene glycol (MEG) fluctuated and strengthened. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory of MEG increased slightly, showing a phased low. On the demand side, the polyester production cut was implemented, weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, two large units of Hengli Petrochemical restarted, making the fundamentals even weaker. On Friday, affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the crude oil price rose significantly, and the MEG market rebounded strongly driven by the cost side. - Next week's forecast: On the cost side, the oil price will fluctuate highly. If the geopolitical situation cools down, there may be a risk of an oil price decline. On the supply side, the start - up of oil - based units has driven up the overall start - up rate, and coal - based units will also resume later, making the supply side more relaxed. On the demand side, the inventory pressures of downstream products vary, and bottle chips have joined the production cut sequence. After entering the seasonal off - season, the terminal demand is not optimistic. In terms of port inventory, the port will still maintain a destocking trend this month, and the inventory of mainstream trading tanks will remain at a low level. - Overall, it is expected to operate in the range of 4,300 - 4,550 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Market and Spot Conditions) - **Market Trends**: The overall increase was brought about by the rising cost. This week, the trading volume was 1.22 million lots, and the open interest was 272,500 lots (- 8,200 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on June 16 was 4,374 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton or 2.77% from the closing price of 4,256 yuan/ton on June 9. The settlement price on June 16 was 4,333 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton or 1.55% from the settlement price of 4,267 yuan/ton on June 9 [7][9][11]. - **Spot Market**: For the domestic spot market, the high - end transaction price was 4,492 yuan/ton on June 13, and the low - end was 4,307 yuan/ton. The weekly price data from June 8 - 14 showed that the prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan were 4,361 yuan/ton (- 45.25 yuan/ton), 4,379.5 yuan/ton (- 54.25 yuan/ton), and 4,361 yuan/ton (- 45.25 yuan/ton) respectively. The foreign - market price was 514.5 US dollars/ton (- 3.38 US dollars/ton). This week's average basis was 94.20 yuan/ton, compared with 135.60 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with an overall level of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Unit, Inventory, and Production Profit) - **Unit Start - up Rate**: Due to the restart of Hengli Petrochemical and the adjustment of individual units between EO/EG, the domestic start - up rate increased from 54.35% from June 3 - 9 to 57.46% from June 10 - 16. The start - up rate of oil - based units was 60.95%, coal - based units was 51.78%, and methanol - based units was 62.40%. This week, the main changes in units included the restart of units such as Henan Yongcheng, Yankuang Rongxin, Hengli, and Zhongsha Tianjin, and the slight adjustment of the load of units such as CNOOC Shell, Haoyuan, Shenghong, and Far Eastern Union [17][20][22]. - **Production Profit**: The cost side increased significantly, and the profit shrank from the high point. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes were - 1,703.27 yuan/ton, 651.32 yuan/ton, and - 96.52 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,486.65 yuan/ton, 705.75 yuan/ton, and - 94.40 US dollars/ton in the previous period [29][31]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the MEG port inventory was 499,800 tons, a decrease of 50,200 tons or - 15.99% compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 37,000 tons to 180,000 tons, in Jiangyin decreased by 10,000 tons to 50,000 tons, in Taicang decreased by 3,000 tons to 150,000 tons, in Ningbo decreased by 8,000 tons to 80,000 tons, and in Shanghai and Changshu increased by 7,800 tons to 39,800 tons. The short - fiber and bottle - chip industries have successively joined the production cut, and the downstream提货 volume has continued to decline. From June 5 - 11, the average daily shipment of the main port in Zhangjiagang was around 4,790 tons, the average daily shipment of the two main storage areas in the Taicang direction was around 5,000 tons, and the average daily shipment in the Ningbo direction was around 4,500 tons. In addition, the statistical inventory of the mainstream domestic trade transfer tanks was around 18,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [35][36][38]. 3.3基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - **Cost Impact**: Geopolitical risks suddenly emerged, and the price rose to near the high point at the beginning of the year. The cost of raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, methanol, and动力煤 has an impact on the MEG price [42]. - **Polyester Industry**: Polyester is affected by the negative feedback from the terminal but cannot transmit it upstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.69%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.79%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,905 yuan/ton, 8,125 yuan/ton, and 7,180 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.62%, 1.14%, and 1.81% compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6,506 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.17% compared with the previous average price. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,880 - 5,980 yuan/ton, and the average price this week was 5,935.00 yuan/ton, down 1.17% compared with the previous reporting period [44][46]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal regards the rise of raw material prices as a purchase signal, and the production and sales have slightly recovered. However, the weaving market has entered the off - season, the start - up rate has slowly declined, the terminal demand is weak, customer inquiries have decreased, and new orders for grey fabrics have been issued slowly. As of June 12, the start - up rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, and other regions decreased to varying degrees [47][51]. - **Polyester Production and Sales**: From June 9 - 13, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 100%. After downstream enterprises replenished a small amount of inventory at the end of last month and basically digested it last week, the downstream raw material inventory was digested to a low level this week. On Monday, polyester factories promoted sales. After the price reduction in the late session, the production and sales volume increased, and the production and sales of mainstream large factories ranged from 100% - 600%, with the median between 100% - 300% [54]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: As of June 12, the inventory of long - filament products rebounded. The average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 17.90 days, 21.70 days, and 28.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber in mainstream factories were 8.35 days, a decrease of 1.06 days compared with the previous period, and the inventory days of polyester chip factories were 11.60 days, an increase of 0.49 days compared with the previous period [55][57].