作者：穆斯塔法・萨利姆、法丽达・埃尔塞拜、詹卢卡・梅佐菲奥雷 一名伊朗军人参加在伊 朗南部举行的伊俄联合海上演习。 随着美国持续在中东大规模集结军力，伊朗已采取多项行动展示备战姿态，包括加固核设施、重建导弹 生产基地等。 该市北部一座导弹基地战后全面修复，所有被炸封的入口重新开放，入口保障区基本重建，部分 隧道已启用。 伊朗西部哈马丹空军基地，跑道上的弹坑已被填平，机库掩体完成修复。 伊朗与美国谈判代表周二在日内瓦举行了 3 个半小时间接会谈，但未达成明确结果。伊朗最高外交官阿 巴斯・阿拉克奇称双方就一系列 "指导原则" 达成一致，但美国副总统 JD・万斯表示，伊朗并未承认特 朗普总统划定的 "红线"。 多名知情消息人士告诉 CNN，尽管谈判仍在继续，白宫已收到简报：随着近期美军在中东海空力量持 续集结，美军最快本周末前即可具备发动攻击的条件。 面对战争威胁，伊朗近几个月已修复关键导弹设施与遭重创的空军基地，并进一步隐蔽核计划。伊朗任 命战争老兵进入国家安全机构，在波斯湾举行海上军演，并对国内异见展开严厉镇压。 设施修复 去年 6 月，以色列突袭伊朗，摧毁其部分核设施、严重破坏导弹生产基地，并炸死多名高级军事 ...

Group 1 - Signs indicate that the threat of war is approaching, with reports suggesting that the U.S. military may soon authorize strikes against Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities [22][23] - President Trump has emphasized the strength of the U.S. naval fleet heading towards Iran, claiming it is larger than the fleet in Venezuela, and has set two demands for Iran: to abandon nuclear weapons and to stop killing protesters [23][24] - The Iranian Foreign Minister has expressed skepticism about U.S. intentions, stating that while Iran is open to negotiations, they cannot begin with threats [26][31] Group 2 - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the region, with the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group arriving in the northern Arabian Sea, accompanied by multiple destroyers and fighter aircraft [27][28] - Additional military assets, including various defense systems and reconnaissance aircraft, have been deployed around Iran, indicating preparations for potential conflict [30][31] - The Iranian military is on high alert, with leadership reportedly in underground shelters and conducting live-fire exercises near the Strait of Hormuz [37] Group 3 - There is uncertainty regarding the execution of any military action, with concerns that a swift attack could escalate into a broader regional conflict [31][39] - Trump's approach appears to be influenced by previous U.S. military actions in Venezuela, where rapid control was achieved, and the current perceived weakness of Iran [35][40] - The potential consequences of war are severe, with fears of widespread retaliation from Iran and the possibility of the U.S. becoming mired in another prolonged conflict in the Middle East [40][41]

委内瑞拉23日在沿海多地开始举行"独立200计划"海岸防御演习，组织协调各地部队和民众力量，保护 石化、电力、电信设施以及码头、医院等。 近期，美国以缉毒为由在加勒比海域部署多艘军舰。9月以来，特朗普政府已宣称在委内瑞拉外海及东 太平洋国际水域击沉10艘所谓"运毒船"并打死40余名"毒贩"。而美国缉毒署近年报告显示，委内瑞拉并 非流入美国毒品的主要来源地。委政府多次指责美国意图通过军事威胁在委策动政权更迭，并在拉美进 行军事扩张。 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗24日说，美国正在"制造一场新的战争"，委内瑞拉将竭力阻止战争发生。 马杜罗当天通过国家电视台发表讲话说，南美洲和加勒比地区国家人民不希望战争，都渴望和平、繁荣 与和谐。为实现这一目标，地区人民需要动员起来。 当天早些时候，美国国防部发言人肖恩·帕内尔宣布，正在把"杰拉尔德·R·福特"号航空母舰打击群部署 到美军南方司令部责任区，即拉丁美洲周边水域。 ...

国际红十字委员会：中东地区主要军事行动的加剧与扩散，威胁波及整个地区乃至全球，可能引发不可 逆转的战争后果。 ...