以色列与伊朗因核计划爆发的12日冲突已过去半年，如今以色列官员发出预警：伊朗全力重建弹道导弹 库，两国恐再度爆发军事冲突。 以色列对伊红线大幅收紧，新冲突爆发概率陡升 "我们从不主动寻求对抗，但会紧盯任何潜在危险。"内塔尼亚胡说道。 针对伊朗弹道导弹研发发起打击，意味着以色列对伊朗的红线已大幅收紧。今年6月以色列发动突袭 时，核心打击目标是伊朗核计划——以色列将其视作关乎国家存亡的致命威胁。 事实上，以色列曾将摧毁伊朗常规远程武器列为其12日冲突的作战目标，且在冲突结束后警告伊朗：无 论重建核设施还是导弹体系，都将招致军事打击。以色列军事情报局伊朗分部前负责人、现任以色列国 家安全研究所高级伊朗研究员丹尼·西特里诺维奇（Danny Citrinowicz）表示，将弹道导弹研发划为红 线，会让两国明年爆发新冲突的概率大幅上升。 此番表态正值内塔尼亚胡筹备赴美之际，他将在年末与美国总统特朗普举行会晤。一名以色列官员透 露，以色列对伊朗弹道导弹研发进度的评估、以及后续可能采取的军事行动，将成为两国领导人会谈的 核心议题。 目前尚无法确定特朗普政府将如何看待以色列对伊新一轮打击计划。当下美方正敦促以色列落实由美国 斡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran's nuclear activities are claimed to be for peaceful purposes, with a clear statement from President Pezeshkian that the country does not seek to develop nuclear weapons, as per the directives of the Supreme Leader [1][3]. Group 1: Nuclear Activities - President Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran will rebuild its nuclear facilities and enhance its capabilities, asserting that destruction of buildings and factories will not hinder scientific progress [1][3]. - Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran will not cease uranium enrichment activities despite pressures from the U.S. and its allies, indicating resilience in maintaining its nuclear program [1][3]. Group 2: Negotiation Stance - Araqchi highlighted that the U.S. and Israel's airstrikes in June failed to dismantle Iran's uranium enrichment projects, with some nuclear materials still buried under rubble, showcasing Iran's technological retention [1][3]. - The ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Oman since April have revealed significant disagreements between the U.S. and Iran on core issues such as uranium enrichment [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian President stated that ending the country's nuclear program is a fantasy, indicating a firm stance on maintaining and potentially expanding nuclear capabilities [1] Group 1 - The Iranian leadership emphasizes the continuation of the nuclear program as a non-negotiable aspect of national policy [1] - The statement reflects a broader geopolitical context where Iran seeks to assert its sovereignty and technological advancements in nuclear energy [1] - This position may influence international relations and negotiations regarding nuclear agreements and sanctions [1]

Geopolitical Implications - Iran, Russia, and China are scheduled to meet on Tuesday to discuss Iran's nuclear program [1] - Discussions will include the risk of reimposing sanctions under the UN's snapback mechanism [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities did not completely destroy Iran's capability to develop nuclear weapons but has delayed its nuclear program by several years [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Military Actions - The U.S. operation aimed not to fully dismantle Iran's nuclear program but to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in the short term [1] Strategic Implications - U.S. officials hope that the attack will deter Iran from attempting to pursue nuclear weapons again in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military strikes by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly delayed Iran's nuclear program by one to two years, according to the U.S. Department of Defense [1][2]. Group 1: Damage Assessment - The U.S. Defense Department spokesperson stated that the three targeted Iranian nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," significantly weakening Iran's nuclear capabilities [2]. - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif acknowledged that the bombing caused "severe damage" to the Fordow nuclear facility, although the exact extent of the damage is still under evaluation [2][3]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi noted a consensus that Iran's nuclear program has suffered significant setbacks, but some uranium processing and enrichment capabilities remain intact [3]. Group 2: International Relations and Cooperation - Iran's parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, which prohibits IAEA inspectors from entering Iran for verification unless certain conditions are met [4][5]. - The United Nations expressed concern over Iran's decision to halt cooperation, emphasizing the importance of collaboration with the IAEA [4]. - The U.S. State Department labeled Iran's suspension of cooperation as "unacceptable," indicating that Iran had the opportunity to pursue a path of peace and prosperity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Defense maintains its strike plans against Iranian nuclear facilities, which have already been destroyed, resulting in a delay of Iran's nuclear program by one to two years [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Defense's plans for striking Iranian nuclear facilities remain unchanged [1] - Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed, impacting the progress of Iran's nuclear program [1] - The advancement of Iran's nuclear program has been postponed by one to two years due to these actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting Israel's long-term intelligence operations against Iran's missile and nuclear programs, recent military actions, and the geopolitical implications of these developments. Group 1: Israel's Military Preparations and Actions - Israel has been preparing for military action against Iran since at least 2010, with intelligence personnel infiltrating key areas of Iran's missile and nuclear programs [2][4] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz has instructed the military to prepare an operational plan against Iran, which includes maintaining air superiority and retaliating against Iranian support for anti-Israel terrorism [2][9] - Following a series of airstrikes, Israel claims to have targeted over 900 Iranian sites, resulting in significant casualties among Iranian security officials and nuclear scientists [9] Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Responses - The U.S. has reportedly used about 15% to 20% of its global THAAD missile defense system inventory during the recent conflict [5] - President Trump has halted all efforts to lift sanctions on Iran and has threatened to bomb Iran again if intelligence indicates Iran's capability to enrich uranium to military levels [3][6] - The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have been described as having caused severe damage, but Iran retains the capability to produce enriched uranium within months [3][4] Group 3: Casualties and Human Impact - Israeli airstrikes since the 13th of the month have resulted in 627 deaths and 4,870 injuries in Iran [10] - Iran has announced the formation of a special legal task force to review the actions of Israel and the U.S. regarding military aggression and violations of Iranian sovereignty [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, highlighting statements from both U.S. President Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei regarding the recent conflict and military actions taken by both sides [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Perspective - President Trump criticized Khamenei's claims of victory over Israel, asserting that Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed and that he knows Khamenei's location [1]. - Trump mentioned that he had requested Israel to withdraw a large air force unit that was prepared to attack Tehran, which would have been the largest assault to date, potentially resulting in significant Iranian casualties [1]. - He expressed his efforts to lift sanctions on Iran to help the country recover but stated that he has abandoned these efforts due to backlash [1]. Group 2: Iranian Perspective - Khamenei congratulated Iran on its victory over Israel and claimed that Iran also achieved a victory against the U.S., particularly referencing an attack on the U.S. military base in Qatar [2]. - He indicated that the U.S. intervened in the conflict out of fear that Israel would be completely destroyed [2].

Core Points - The U.S. is attempting to resume negotiations with Iran following a ceasefire agreement, with President Trump indicating potential talks next week [1][6] - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif stated there are currently no plans to restart nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [1][7] Group 1: U.S. Diplomatic Efforts - U.S. Middle East envoy Wittekopf held a secret meeting with Gulf partners to discuss details before military actions against Iran [2] - The U.S. has proposed several initial terms for negotiations, with a non-negotiable demand for Iran to eliminate its enriched uranium [3] Group 2: Investment and Sanctions - Proposed investments for Iran's civilian nuclear program range from $20 billion to $30 billion, with funding expected to come from Arab partners rather than directly from the U.S. [4][5] - Other incentives under consideration include lifting some sanctions on Iran and allowing access to $6 billion currently restricted in foreign bank accounts [5] Group 3: Iran's Position - Iran maintains three core demands for negotiations: the continuation of uranium enrichment, lifting of U.S. sanctions, and a commitment not to develop nuclear weapons [7] - Despite some progress in indirect talks facilitated by Oman, significant disagreements remain on key issues [7]