Core Viewpoint - A new large-scale military conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran is imminent, with significant military preparations underway and negotiations at a standstill [2][30]. Group 1: Military Preparations - The U.S. and Israel are reportedly planning a coordinated attack on Iran, targeting its ballistic missile program, the Revolutionary Guard, and potentially its leadership [3][30]. - Israel has raised its military readiness, anticipating retaliation from Iran even if Israeli forces do not directly participate in the attack [4][30]. - The U.S. is mobilizing military assets, including bombers and refueling aircraft, to the Middle East, with Trump indicating a willingness to use the Diego Garcia military base for strikes against Iran [6][30]. Group 2: Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are characterized by an unbridgeable gap, with the U.S. demanding Iran abandon its nuclear program entirely, including civilian aspects [11][36]. - The U.S. aims to weaken Iran significantly, potentially leading to a situation similar to Venezuela, which Iran is unlikely to accept [11][36]. Group 3: Iranian Response - Iran is preparing for potential conflict by deploying military forces in the Strait of Hormuz and enhancing its defensive capabilities, including fortifying nuclear facilities [12][38]. - The Iranian leadership has expressed readiness for martyrdom, indicating a high level of commitment to resist U.S. aggression [39][14]. Group 4: Implications of Conflict - The likelihood of conflict is high, with the potential for a prolonged military engagement rather than a quick resolution [16][22]. - The Iranian regime is in a precarious position, facing existential threats from U.S. demands and the possibility of military action [21][46]. - The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with the potential for regional escalation involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis [39][22].

美国或将再次修改非农数据，特朗普的经济顾问给出了暗示。然而，美国的修改数据举动，影响的不仅 是纸面上的东西，甚至整个世界的"经济"价值都可能被改变，为什么这么说？ 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）还未发布1月的非农数据报告，就有市场预测认为，BLS会 再次下修非农数据，而且幅度会是"百万级"。而且，特朗普的首席经济顾问、白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特已经表示，鉴于美国人口增长速度在下滑，那么美国未来的就业人数也会减少，这显然是 暗示将会下修非农数据。然而，美国在2024年和2025年都进行了这个举动，若这次再这么做，将是连续 三年下修。事实上，美国在过去25年内，进行了多达300次的就业数据修正。恐怕，美国经济的"皇帝新 装"，已经维持不下去了。 而对美国可能再次下修非农数据的举动，有分析指出，有三方面的情况值得重点关注。 第一，美国多次下修非农数据，不仅是"失信于全球"，还可能造成整个世界对"经济"理解的重铸。 实际上，经济数据存在偏差是无法避免的情况，无论采取多么精确的统计方法，都不能确保数据的真实 性、及时性和准确性。然而，美国政府的修正幅度如此之大，使得公布的数据已经脱离了"可控误差 ...

Group 1 - Signs indicate that the threat of war is approaching, with reports suggesting that the U.S. military may soon authorize strikes against Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities [22][23] - President Trump has emphasized the strength of the U.S. naval fleet heading towards Iran, claiming it is larger than the fleet in Venezuela, and has set two demands for Iran: to abandon nuclear weapons and to stop killing protesters [23][24] - The Iranian Foreign Minister has expressed skepticism about U.S. intentions, stating that while Iran is open to negotiations, they cannot begin with threats [26][31] Group 2 - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the region, with the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group arriving in the northern Arabian Sea, accompanied by multiple destroyers and fighter aircraft [27][28] - Additional military assets, including various defense systems and reconnaissance aircraft, have been deployed around Iran, indicating preparations for potential conflict [30][31] - The Iranian military is on high alert, with leadership reportedly in underground shelters and conducting live-fire exercises near the Strait of Hormuz [37] Group 3 - There is uncertainty regarding the execution of any military action, with concerns that a swift attack could escalate into a broader regional conflict [31][39] - Trump's approach appears to be influenced by previous U.S. military actions in Venezuela, where rapid control was achieved, and the current perceived weakness of Iran [35][40] - The potential consequences of war are severe, with fears of widespread retaliation from Iran and the possibility of the U.S. becoming mired in another prolonged conflict in the Middle East [40][41]

经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间1月28日，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体平台真实社 交上发声称，"有一支庞大的舰队正驶向伊朗，行动迅速。"特朗普还表示，希望此举能促使伊朗"回到 谈判桌前"以"谈判出一个公平合理的协议——无核武器——且对各方都有利的协议"。 28日稍早时，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队副总司令瓦希迪表示，伊朗近年来持续强化国内综合能力建设，已使 任何针对伊朗的行动对敌方而言成本高昂、风险显著上升。瓦希迪指出，当前敌方发动的"认知战"，其 主要目标是削弱伊朗社会的价值共识。他强调，围绕国家核心价值维护社会认同与思想稳定，是当今精 英群体的重要责任之一。 美军中央司令部26日在社交媒体发布消息说，美国海军"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰打击群"正部署到中 东"。 此外，特朗普称，这支舰队"规模超过此前派往委内瑞拉的舰队"，且特朗普再对伊朗放出威胁称，"下 次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈"。 ...

当地时间1月28日，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体平台真实社交上发声称，"有一支庞大的舰队正驶 向伊朗，行动迅速。"特朗普还表示，希望此举能促使伊朗"回到谈判桌前"以"谈判出一个公平合理的协 议——无核武器——且对各方都有利的协议"。 此外，特朗普称，这支舰队"规模超过此前派往委内瑞拉的舰队"，且特朗普再对伊朗放出威胁称，"下 次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈"。 28日稍早时，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队副总司令瓦希迪表示，伊朗近年来持续强化国内综合能力建设，已使 任何针对伊朗的行动对敌方而言成本高昂、风险显著上升。瓦希迪指出，当前敌方发动的"认知战"，其 主要目标是削弱伊朗社会的价值共识。他强调，围绕国家核心价值维护社会认同与思想稳定，是当今精 英群体的重要责任之一。 美军中央司令部26日在社交媒体发布消息说，美国海军"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰打击群"正部署到中 东"。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间1月28日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队副总司令瓦希迪表示，伊 朗近年来持续强化国内综合能力建设，已使任何针对伊朗的行动对敌方而言成本高昂、风险显著上升。 瓦希迪指出，当前敌方发动的"认知战"，其主要目标是削弱伊朗社会的价值共识。他强调，围绕国家核 心价值维护社会认同与思想稳定，是当今精英群体的重要责任之一。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran, with the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East due to the strained relations [1][2][3][4]. - The U.S. has deployed over ten F-15E "Strike Eagle" fighter jets and C-17 "Globemaster III" transport aircraft from the UK to the Middle East, confirming the deployment through the Central Command [2][3]. - The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has passed through the Strait of Malacca and is heading towards the Middle East, with additional missile defense systems expected to be deployed in the region to enhance defense capabilities [2][3]. Group 2 - Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Zarif, have warned that any new attacks against Iran will be met with a strong response, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to engage with Iran on a basis of mutual respect [4][5]. - Iran's military readiness has been heightened, with an increase in missile stockpiles since 2025, as stated by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [3][4]. - Iranian military spokesperson Shekarchi has issued a warning that any military action against Supreme Leader Khamenei would result in "devastating retaliation," indicating a high level of military alertness and readiness to respond to perceived threats [5].

Group 1 - The Iranian armed forces spokesperson, Shekarchi, warned the U.S. that any military action against Supreme Leader Khamenei would result in "devastating retaliation" [1][3] - U.S. President Trump stated it is time to find new leadership for Iran, which Shekarchi dismissed as part of a "psychological warfare" strategy [3] - Shekarchi emphasized that any aggression towards Khamenei would not only be met with force but would also ignite a broader conflict, leaving the U.S. with no safe haven in the region [3] Group 2 - Iranian President Raeisi also responded to Trump's comments, asserting that any attack on Khamenei would lead to a full-scale war [3]

报道说，哈梅内伊当天在伊朗首都德黑兰与数千名伊朗民众会面时发表了上述讲话。哈梅内 伊还阐述了伊朗最近动乱的性质和手段，以及伊朗人民面对阴谋的责任。 来源：央视新闻 新华社 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在德黑兰会见了来自社会各界的数千 名民众，并就近期局势发表讲话。哈梅内伊阐述了近期骚乱的本质，以及伊朗方面在应对这 一局势时所肩负的责任，强调必须清醒认识敌对势力的真实目的，并采取正确立场加以应 对。 哈梅内伊在公开讲话中还表示，美国发动近期动乱的目标就是吞并伊朗，他说："历届美国政 府的政策如出一辙，那就是无法容忍像伊朗这样独立的国家存在。" 哈梅内伊：特朗普让伊朗遭受损害和伤亡，应被视为犯罪 据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社17日报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊说，美国总统特朗普让伊朗遭 受损害和伤亡，并对伊朗民族提出指责，这应被视为犯罪。 穆萨维指出，面对敌方在舆论和认知层面的渗透与操纵，必须通过及时、准确、深入的事实 阐释，加强对事件真相的说明和解读，以此应对敌对势力的手段和阴谋。 他强调， 提升社会公众对事实的认知水平 ，是维护国家安全和社会稳定的重要环节，应通过 正确引导舆论，增强社会抵御外 ...

总台记者获悉，当地时间1月17日，伊朗武装部队总参谋长穆萨维表示，敌对势力通过构建庞大的媒体体系并发动认知 战，对部分社会群体造成影响，刻意歪曲事实、混淆视听。 他强调，提升社会公众对事实的认知水平，是维护国家安全和社会稳定的重要环节，应通过正确引导舆论，增强社会抵 御外部干扰的能力。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 穆萨维指出，面对敌方在舆论和认知层面的渗透与操纵，必须通过及时、准确、深入的事实阐释，加强对事件真相的说 明和解读，以此应对敌对势力的手段和阴谋。 ...