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申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251212
Group 1: Central Economic Work Conference Highlights - The conference emphasized five "musts" in response to new circumstances, focusing on the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically [8][11][19] - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a clear emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure [8][11][19] - Monetary policy aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, highlighting the dual support role of monetary policy for the economy and prices [8][11][19] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - The conference introduced measures for "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][14][19] - There is a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for policies to support both supply and demand sides, including potential mortgage rate reductions and financing support for real estate companies [11][14][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" indicates a shift towards high-quality property development, with policies expected to support this direction [11][14][19] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on ten key investment areas for the future, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace, and strategic resource metals [12][19] - The construction sector is expected to stabilize in 2026, with emerging sectors likely to gain higher investment opportunities due to national strategic implementations [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate and the "good housing" sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial enterprises during the monetary easing period [14][19][20]
十五五规划十大投资机会梳理:精益求精-20251206
证 券 研 究 报 告 励精图治 ——十五五规划十大投资机会梳理 证券分析师: 程翔 A0230518080007 王胜 A0230511060001 傅静涛 A0230516110001 2025.12.06 主要结论 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 2025年9月3日,抗战胜利80周年大阅兵的举行,9月23日,中国国务院总理李强在出席第80届联合国大会相关活动时向全世界庄严 宣示,中国作为负责任的发展中大国,在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中,将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。四中全会召开前夕,"钟才 文"系列文章的发布,分别从军事安全、国际责任与国内预期等多个维度共同传递出了一个明确的信号:中国正从全球规则的适应 者,主动转变为共建者与责任承担者。 ◼ 10月28日,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 发布, "统筹发展和安全"贯穿所有领域。科技 部分十五五首次将新兴产业定位为 "支柱产业",聚焦新能源、新材料等,核心以集群化发展 + 场景规模化落地为路径,还提出 新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范行动。从覆盖范围角度而言,三中全会聚焦"战略性产业","十五五"拓展至"传统-新 ...