Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a seasoned investor, "金凤凰四点," who achieved a total return of 51.76% in a trading competition, showcasing the dual nature of the capital market as both cruel and captivating [1][2]. Group 1: Investor's Strategy and Performance - The investor started with a small capital and recorded an impressive single-day return of 20.80%, maintaining a 100% win rate since June 23 [1]. - After experiencing a significant loss due to leveraging and a short-term mindset, the investor spent a year analyzing mistakes and developed a revised arbitrage strategy, which includes a -3% unconditional stop-loss and an 8% ordinary take-profit [2]. - The investor's strategy focuses on capturing market trends in sectors like military, gaming, film, and restructuring, emphasizing the importance of volume and price dynamics [2]. Group 2: Market Insights and Lessons - The investor advocates for risk management, stating that learning to control risks should not wait until a significant loss occurs, and views the competition as an excellent testing ground [2]. - The investor's performance metrics include a weekly return of 49.32% and a monthly return of 5.46%, with a maximum drawdown consistently maintained at 0, underscoring the significance of risk control [2]. - The investor's story serves as an inspirational example for both seasoned traders and newcomers, emphasizing the importance of resilience and strategy adaptation in the face of market challenges [3]. Group 3: Competition Results - As of July 2, 2025, the top performers in the trading competition include "小西瓜" with a return of 67.22% and "金凤凰四点" with a return of 51.76%, showcasing a competitive environment [4]. - The competition results reflect a diverse range of performance, with varying win rates and total assets among participants, indicating different trading strategies and risk appetites [4].