**Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月26日 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 1.63%、0.89%、1.91%、1.19%、0.56%、 0.05%、2.42%、12.56%。中信一级行业指数中国防军工、有色金属、建 材、机械、轻工制造行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、 医药、综合金融、房地产行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中， 林木、航天军工、万得风电、十大军工集团、HJT 电池、金属非金属、 黄金等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，共 726 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 ...

报 告 摘 要 平稳创新高股票跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出了包含中际旭创、英维 克、新易盛等50只平稳创新高的股票。按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期、科技板块，分别有21、15只入选。其中，周期板块中创新高最多的 是有色金属行业；科技板块中创新高最多的是电力设备及新能源行业。 一 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月26日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为1.63%、 0.89%、1.91%、1.19%、0.56%、0.05%、2.42%、12.56%。中信一级行业指数中国防军工、有色金属、建材、机械、轻工制造行业指数距离250日 新高较近，食品饮料、银行、医药、综合金融、房地产行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中 ...

文章转自2025年05月21日太平洋 金融工程团队 报告 ，分析师： 刘晓锋 /孙弋轩 报告从标的回撤规律的角度着手，使用迭代方法筛选出可适用的行业，并通过设置合理的入场阈值给定了高质量的左侧买点，以此给出了各个行业在回调阶段的配置 区间建议，奠定了太平洋金工团队后续模型改进的基础，并可作为基准对于后续模型效果作出评估。 正文报告 01 行业指数VS沪深300 沪深300由不同行业的个股组成，考虑自上而下的选股模式，考察时间区间（2010年1月至2025年3月）内的各行业回报率： 31个行业中有17个行业回报率超过了沪深 300。 综合行业指数相对沪深300的净值以及相应的回撤信息，我们可以总结以下三点： 02 偏离修复策略 行业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景一）： 1、在行业层面，选择行业构建组合具有较大概率获取超收益，以简单平均配置为例，可以在区间内获得34%的超额回报； 2、买入并持有单行业相对于沪深300的，可能会产生了较大的回撤，以及较长的回撤时间，存在择时必要性； 3、趋势跟踪已经在前期报告做过阐述，考虑到该策略过程中无法提供空间信息，因此本文考虑空间方面的策略。 业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 224 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 3.45%、4.26%、3.78%、5.03%、4.16%、 2.16%、6.08%、14.98%。中信一级行业指数中轻工制造、有色金属、通 信、国防军工、消费者服务行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 综合金融、房地产、医药、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，十大军工集团、卫星导航、家居用品、卫星互联网、金属非金属、 航天军工、林木等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，共 620 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是国防军工、有 色金属、轻工制造行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、科技板块创新高股 票数量最多；按 ...

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月5日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.14%、 4.21%、3.44%、5.98%、4.00%、2.50%、6.47%、13.84%。中信一级行业指数中家电、轻工制造、有色金属、通信、建材行业指数距离250日新高 较近，食品饮料、综合金融、银行、医药、商贸零售行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，卫星互联网、卫星导航、家用电器、家居用品、林木、黄 金、家用电器等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年12月5日，共965只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是基础化工、电力设备及新能源、机械行业，创新 高个股数量占比最高的是煤炭、纺织服装、石油石化行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、制造板块创新高股票数量最多；按照 ...

Group 1 - The core strategy of "Linglong Twin" is consistency in trading, emphasizing the importance of a fixed strategy for long-term success [2] - The trader focuses on high volatility and liquid commodities, applying trend-following strategies primarily in these markets [2] - The trader's approach involves technical analysis, entering trades after confirming trends through specific price movements [2] Group 2 - "Linglong Twin" experienced significant challenges during the transition from arbitrage to trend trading, facing a period of consecutive losses [3] - The trader adopted a scientific approach to overcome setbacks, including rigorous backtesting and strict risk management [3] - A pivotal moment in the trader's career was the realization of effective money management principles, which led to a more structured trading process [3] Group 3 - The trader's philosophy centers on the idea that there is no optimal trading solution, advocating for a pragmatic approach to balancing risk and reward [4] - Strict risk management practices are emphasized, including the necessity of stop-loss orders and objective position sizing based on strategy backtesting [4] - The trader's approach to profit-taking varies based on the nature of the funds, with a focus on securing profits from pressured capital while allowing idle funds to grow [4] Group 4 - "Xiran Investment" has a core philosophy of identifying ten to fifteen uncorrelated return streams to achieve low drawdown and stable profits [7] - The company focuses on finding market "errors," particularly in high-volume and high-volatility products, to capitalize on mispriced opportunities [7] - Multi-crystalline silicon has emerged as a key focus due to its significant price fluctuations and its role as a leading product in the "anti-involution" market trend [8] Group 5 - The company employs a multi-directional arbitrage strategy during competitions, particularly between multi-crystalline silicon and industrial silicon [9] - Options trading is utilized flexibly based on volatility, enhancing returns while managing risks through a combination of futures and options strategies [9] - The company has developed a comprehensive research framework based on industry communication, despite not conducting on-site investigations [8]

Core Insights - Aspect Capital's private fund business in China has exceeded expectations despite being operational for less than a year, driven by high macroeconomic uncertainty and increasing demand for diversified returns from investors [1] - The firm has registered as a private securities manager in China with assets under management between 1 billion and 2 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Market Entry Strategy - Aspect Capital began researching models suitable for the Chinese market in 2011, ensuring they had the experience and capability to build competitive projects before establishing an office [4] - The company developed a comprehensive business plan, identifying necessary infrastructure, key market participants, and recruitment needs [4] Group 2: Cultural and Team Building - The core cultural values emphasized by Aspect include communication, openness, mutual respect, and enthusiasm for challenges, which are crucial for all employees in Shanghai [5] - Recruitment principles in China mirror those in London, focusing on diversity in viewpoints and educational backgrounds while ensuring alignment with core cultural values [5] Group 3: Strategy Customization for China - Chinese clients prioritize achieving or exceeding performance expectations, which include attractive absolute returns and low correlation with stock and bond markets [7] - Transparency is essential for investors, who need to understand the reasons behind performance, regardless of whether it is positive or negative [8] Group 4: International Investor Interest - There is a growing interest among European investors in allocating assets to Chinese stocks, particularly following China's economic recovery in recent years [14] - Investors are seeking strategies that provide low correlation with Chinese equities, which Aspect's futures strategies can offer [14] Group 5: Business Progress in Shanghai - Aspect Capital's strategies have shown competitive performance in the Chinese market, allowing for faster-than-expected asset growth due to team capabilities and established partnerships [15] Group 6: Historical Context of CTA Strategies - CTA strategies have a long history, with the first managed futures fund established in 1949, and have evolved through various market conditions [16] - The industry saw significant growth in the 1970s, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic turmoil, leading to the establishment of many existing CTAs [16][17] Group 7: Crisis Alpha Mechanism - "Crisis alpha" refers to the ability of CTAs to deliver strong returns during prolonged crises, with a proven track record during significant market downturns [18] - Historical data indicates that managed futures strategies can generate positive returns in environments where stock and bond markets are declining [19] Group 8: Model Adjustments for China - Aspect has tailored its models for the Chinese market, reducing the allocation to trend-following strategies and increasing the focus on other models such as rapid technical, fundamental, and value models [10] - Adjustments include changes in the weight of different frequency models and the unique market coverage available in China [11][12] Group 9: Research Methodology - Aspect employs a hypothesis-driven approach to machine learning to avoid overfitting, starting with market behavior assumptions rather than purely data-driven methods [22] - This approach allows for the development of models that capture market trends effectively while mitigating risks associated with overfitting [22]

Core Insights - The article highlights the success of a trader, Pu Yuhan, who excelled in the 12th Global Derivatives Trading Competition through a disciplined approach focused on trend-following and light position management [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Strategy - Pu Yuhan attributes her success to a mechanical execution of a "trend + light position" system, emphasizing that there are no "eureka moments" in trading [1]. - The key to her performance was a position in A50 index futures, which she entered after analyzing macro policy signals and market sentiment, predicting a bullish trend [1]. - During market fluctuations, she maintained composure due to her light position strategy, which kept volatility within manageable limits [1]. Group 2: Market Environment - The current market environment is favorable for trend-following strategies, with the A50 index reflecting macroeconomic conditions and benefiting from dual drivers of policy expectations and fundamental recovery [2]. - Pu Yuhan has shifted her focus from frequent trading to concentrating on major trends, believing that patience in holding positions is more effective than chasing short-term fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Trading Philosophy - Pu Yuhan's trading philosophy centers on the concept of a "prolonged battle," emphasizing that long-term survival in the market leads to compounding benefits [2]. - She views trading as a marathon requiring patience and perseverance, with a mindset shift from seeking quick profits to pursuing stable long-term returns being crucial [2]. Group 4: Risk Management - Pu Yuhan considers "stop-loss" as a lifeline, always pre-setting stop-loss levels to protect her account from significant losses [3]. - She emphasizes the importance of "profit withdrawal" in risk management, which helps dilute risks and allows for a more composed trading mindset [3]. - Adhering to a "pyramid scaling" principle, she starts with light positions and only increases her stake when market trends are confirmed, maintaining strict limits on total position size [3]. Group 5: Advice for New Traders - Pu Yuhan advises new traders to practice with "money they can afford to lose" and to focus on survival in the initial years rather than seeking quick wealth [3].

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][25] - As of November 7, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 0.47%, Shenzhen Component Index at 2.34%, CSI 300 at 1.45%, CSI 500 at 2.93%, CSI 1000 at 1.39%, CSI 2000 at 1.36%, ChiNext Index at 3.49%, and STAR 50 Index at 8.02% [6][25] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, the oil and petrochemical, electric equipment and new energy, comprehensive, electric and public utilities, and steel industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, comprehensive finance, pharmaceuticals, real estate, and retail industries are further away [9][25] Group 2 - A total of 1,018 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the machinery, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors [2][14][25] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the coal, non-ferrous metals, and steel industries, with respective proportions of 52.78%, 52.42%, and 39.62% [14][25] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with respective counts of 319 and 301 [16][25] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stocks that have shown stable new highs based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs, including companies like Shannon Chip and Zhongji Xuchuang [3][20][27] - The cyclical and technology sectors had the most stocks reaching stable new highs, with 21 and 16 stocks respectively [20][27] - In the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most new highs, while in the technology sector, the electric equipment and new energy industry led [20][27]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11][12] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of October 31, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are provided, with values ranging from 1.53% to 8.03%[12][13][15] Model and Factor Construction - **Model Name**: 250-day High Distance Model - **Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the 250-day high distance using the formula $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - Identify stocks with the smallest 250-day high distance, indicating they are at or near their 250-day high[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market trend by reaching new highs[11] Factor Construction - **Factor Name**: Stable New High Stocks - **Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that not only reach new highs but do so with stable price movements and strong momentum[26] - **Construction Process**: - Filter stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days - Further filter based on analyst attention, relative strength, price stability, and trend continuation - Use metrics such as the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days and the average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days to score and rank stocks[26][28] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying stocks with strong and stable upward trends, which are likely to continue performing well[26] Backtest Results - **250-day High Distance Model**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.53% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.53% - CSI 300: 2.26% - CSI 500: 2.89% - CSI 1000: 1.85% - CSI 2000: 2.22% - ChiNext Index: 4.11% - STAR 50 Index: 8.03%[12][13][15] - **Stable New High Stocks Factor**: - Number of stocks reaching new highs in the past 20 days: 1077 - Highest number of new high stocks by industry: Electronics, Machinery, Basic Chemicals - Highest proportion of new high stocks by industry: Non-ferrous Metals, Coal, Steel - Highest number of new high stocks by index: CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index[19][20][29]