Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]

Group 1 - Costco Wholesale Corporation is experiencing quiet trading, but a popular trading model has generated a 'buy' signal, indicating a potential new uptrend [1] - The recent trend analysis shows that the 10-day average closing price has surpassed the 20-day average closing price, suggesting a possible upward movement for Costco [7] - Trend-following strategies are being utilized to determine entry and exit points based on specific price analyses [1][2] Group 2 - A moving average crossover model indicates that when the shorter-term average (10-day) is below the longer-term average (20-day), the stock is in a downtrend, and a crossover generates a buy signal [6] - Historical data shows that previous buy signals in January and April were accurate, followed by sell signals in March and June [6] - The current situation may signal the beginning of a new uptrend for Costco, as indicated by the recent price movements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying and following market trends, highlighting the recent upward movement in the market since July, with increased trading activity and investor confidence [2]. Investment Philosophy - For novice ETF investors, it is crucial to establish a rational investment philosophy, which includes setting reasonable return targets based on risk tolerance, such as an annualized return of 3%-5% initially, and gradually aiming for higher returns as experience grows [7]. - A systematic investment strategy is recommended, such as regular fixed-amount investments in broad-based ETFs to mitigate timing risks and maintain discipline in execution [7]. - Diversification and position control are essential, with recommendations to allocate no more than 15% of total funds to a single ETF and keep total equity investments below 30% [7]. Risk Management Strategies - To manage risks, the article suggests employing a risk parity model to balance the risk contributions of leveraged ETFs and other assets, ensuring that leveraged ETF positions do not exceed 30% of the portfolio [8]. - Strict stop-loss measures are advised, with a recommended stop-loss threshold of 8%-10% to prevent significant losses, and the use of trailing stop-loss strategies to protect profits [8]. - Trend-following strategies are encouraged, where positions are increased in an upward trend and reduced during reversals, avoiding counter-trend actions [8]. - The core of ETF allocation should focus on balancing risk and return, allowing for effective overall risk control without significantly lowering expected returns [8]. Summary of Investment Insights - The investment philosophy can be succinctly summarized as using rules to overcome emotions and achieving compounding through discipline [9].