今年的市场特点是方向不确定、事件驱动增强、波动率周期反复，通过量化模型识别波动结构与情绪拐 点，姜炯的团队在震荡市中捕捉到了更稳定的收益机会。"方向往往是偶然的，但波动是必然的。在宏 观不确定性提升的阶段，专注于波动定价和风险暴露管理，比盲目预测方向更能带来稳健收益。"姜炯 对期货日报记者说。 品种上，姜炯的团队主要聚焦科创50、有色金属、黄金、原油、农产品及恒生科技等相关标的。期权方 面，重点布局中证1000、科创50等指数期权，偶尔配合商品期权做互补。"选择这些品种，一方面是基 于基本面的中长期逻辑，比如有色金属受益于全球补库与绿色转型，科创50受益于自主创新政策；另一 方面，我们也看重品种的流动性与波动特征，确保期权策略能有较好的定价与成交效率。"他解释，选 择标的的两个核心标准则是，隐含波动率处于低位、受宏观影响较大，以及受"反内卷"逻辑影响明显。 在入场时机上，他们坚持"基本面定方向，技术面定时机"，期权方面，特别关注市场情绪与波动率位 置。"本质上，我们不做预测型交易，只做逻辑验证后的跟随与保护。"姜炯介绍，识别交易机会依托量 化模型与宏观判断结合的体系，模型部分以波动率结构、量价行为、资金流因子 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses an experiment involving six AI models generating trading strategies for XAU/USD (gold against USD) under identical conditions, revealing diverse approaches and decision-making styles among the models [1][4][5]. Experiment Overview - The experiment utilized hourly market data for XAU/USD, chosen for its volatility, clear structure, and continuous data, making it suitable for observing AI reasoning and strategy differences [2][3]. - The AI models involved were ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok, each starting with an initial capital of $10,000 [1][6]. Results and Analysis - The AI models produced six distinct trading strategies, ranging from conservative to aggressive, and from mechanical trend-following to emotional testing, highlighting their unique "personalities" in trading [4][5]. - The focus of the analysis is not on profitability but rather on the underlying thought processes and decision-making logic of each strategy [5]. Performance Metrics - The performance of each model was tracked, with Grok showing the least loss at -0.04%, while Qwen had the highest loss at -0.88% [6][7]. - Current equity values and cumulative returns for each model were provided, indicating varying degrees of success in the trading environment [6][7]. Trading Strategies - ChatGPT's strategy emphasized trend-following based on moving averages, with a disciplined approach to risk management and a preference for not leveraging or shorting [9][12][14]. - Claude's strategy focused on mid-term trend tracking, considering macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events to identify buying opportunities [15][20]. - Gemini's approach involved trading only in bullish market conditions, using long-term moving averages to guide entry and exit points [21][24]. - DeepSeek's strategy was centered on long-term upward trends, avoiding leverage and emphasizing patience in waiting for clear signals [25][26]. Conclusion - The experiment illustrates the potential of AI in trading, showcasing how different models can interpret the same data in varied ways, leading to distinct trading strategies and outcomes [1][4][5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive trading performance of Ma Kunyi, who achieved a significant increase in account funds from 1.5 million to 7.5 million RMB in a competitive trading environment, ranking sixth in a national futures trading competition [1] Group 1: Trading Strategy - Ma Kunyi's key trading strategy involved accurately capturing the trend in polysilicon prices, initiating an options arbitrage strategy when the first涨停 (limit-up) occurred [2] - He sold various call and put options, with approximately 20% of his position in call options, and adjusted his strategy based on market movements, ultimately reversing his position to go long when he recognized a potential trend shift [2][3] - Throughout the competition, he utilized a combination of futures and options trading, achieving returns of around three times his investment during significant market movements [3] Group 2: Market Analysis and Psychological Resilience - The article discusses the psychological aspects of trading, emphasizing that Ma Kunyi's trading style is closely linked to his personality, preferring high-risk, high-reward scenarios [5] - His trading journey included a challenging period from 2020 to 2024, where he faced significant losses but used this time to refine his skills and mindset, ultimately leading to a turnaround in his trading success [4][6] - The article notes that Ma Kunyi views trading as a journey of self-discovery, balancing his professional and personal life while improving his financial situation through trading [6]

Core Insights - Zhou Xiaofeng, an experienced investment manager, has achieved outstanding results in a trading competition, demonstrating the effectiveness of his trading system and commitment to serving the real economy [2] Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Zhou emphasizes a clear trading philosophy of "grabbing the big and letting go of the small," focusing on market trends rather than predictions [4] - He advocates for simplifying complex market conditions and following market movements instead of trying to predict them [4] - Zhou utilizes various analytical tools such as K-line charts, MACD, and moving averages to assess market conditions and identify underlying logic [4] Group 2: Trading Strategy - His trading style is characterized by trend-following, particularly in capturing breakout opportunities in commodities like PTA and crude oil [3] - The core strategy in options trading is "long volatility," viewing derivatives as tools for risk management [3] - Zhou employs a "moving stop-loss" strategy to protect profits, adjusting stop-loss levels as gains increase [4] Group 3: Profit-Taking and Risk Management - Zhou uses a "partial profit-taking" strategy to avoid profit erosion, locking in gains at key market levels [5] - He believes that many traders' losses stem from psychological factors rather than technical skills, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced mindset [5] - Setting realistic annual return expectations is crucial for maintaining a stable trading approach [5] Group 4: Advice for New Traders - Zhou advises new traders to clearly distinguish between being a trader and an investor, as their approaches and time horizons differ [5] - He stresses the importance of building a solid foundation in trading rules and risk management before engaging in live trading [5] - Zhou reminds that trading is a marathon, not a sprint, highlighting the need for a steady and disciplined approach to succeed in the long term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in A-shares is seen as a signal of the market entering its final adjustment phase, with limited downside potential and a shift of funds from crowded sectors to undervalued areas [1][3]. Market Adjustment - Market adjustments are viewed as a healthy mechanism, necessary for releasing pressure and correcting overvalued assets, similar to how the human body requires breathing [3][5]. - Historical examples illustrate that significant adjustments have previously helped to re-anchor values, such as the 2015 and 2021 market corrections [3]. Investor Sentiment - Market adjustments test investor psychology, highlighting the tendency for individuals to panic sell during downturns and chase prices during upswings [5][9]. - The distinction between price and value is crucial; true investment opportunities arise when stock prices fall significantly below their intrinsic value [5]. Sector Rotation - Recent market behavior shows a rotation from high-growth technology stocks to traditional sectors like banking and insurance, reflecting cyclical patterns [7][9]. - Historical trends indicate that no sector remains perpetually bullish, emphasizing the importance of timing and sector awareness in investment strategies [7]. Investment Strategies - Two recommended strategies in volatile markets include left-side trading during low interest and dollar-cost averaging into index funds to mitigate timing risks [9][11]. - Investors should maintain a consistent investment logic, avoiding contradictory strategies that can lead to confusion and missed opportunities [9]. Market Environment Challenges - The A-share market faces challenges such as misinformation and emotional trading among retail investors, which can lead to erratic price movements [11][13]. - The need for a more robust credit system and improved information filtering capabilities for ordinary investors is highlighted, as they are often swayed by market noise [11]. Current Market Position - Indicators suggest that the market is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with key sectors like finance and consumer goods at historically low valuations, providing a foundation for potential rebounds [13]. - Prepared investors who maintain cash reserves and are willing to act against the prevailing market sentiment are likely to emerge as winners in the next phase [13].

Group 1 - The core philosophy of anzocapital is to "cut losses and let profits run," emphasizing the importance of managing losses in investment strategies [1][3] - Investors must accept losses as part of the investment process; ignoring losses without a plan can lead to greater harm [3] - Trend-following traders should not predict market movements but rather respond to changes, understanding that small losses are a normal part of trading [3] Group 2 - The company advocates for the use of stop-loss strategies to manage losses, allowing traders to continue participating in the market [3] - Setting specific profit targets is discouraged, as profit amounts are uncontrollable; success comes from staying aligned with market trends [3] - Anzocapital's approach aims to help investors navigate market uncertainties while maintaining a disciplined trading strategy [3]

Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]

Group 1 - Costco Wholesale Corporation is experiencing quiet trading, but a popular trading model has generated a 'buy' signal, indicating a potential new uptrend [1] - The recent trend analysis shows that the 10-day average closing price has surpassed the 20-day average closing price, suggesting a possible upward movement for Costco [7] - Trend-following strategies are being utilized to determine entry and exit points based on specific price analyses [1][2] Group 2 - A moving average crossover model indicates that when the shorter-term average (10-day) is below the longer-term average (20-day), the stock is in a downtrend, and a crossover generates a buy signal [6] - Historical data shows that previous buy signals in January and April were accurate, followed by sell signals in March and June [6] - The current situation may signal the beginning of a new uptrend for Costco, as indicated by the recent price movements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying and following market trends, highlighting the recent upward movement in the market since July, with increased trading activity and investor confidence [2]. Investment Philosophy - For novice ETF investors, it is crucial to establish a rational investment philosophy, which includes setting reasonable return targets based on risk tolerance, such as an annualized return of 3%-5% initially, and gradually aiming for higher returns as experience grows [7]. - A systematic investment strategy is recommended, such as regular fixed-amount investments in broad-based ETFs to mitigate timing risks and maintain discipline in execution [7]. - Diversification and position control are essential, with recommendations to allocate no more than 15% of total funds to a single ETF and keep total equity investments below 30% [7]. Risk Management Strategies - To manage risks, the article suggests employing a risk parity model to balance the risk contributions of leveraged ETFs and other assets, ensuring that leveraged ETF positions do not exceed 30% of the portfolio [8]. - Strict stop-loss measures are advised, with a recommended stop-loss threshold of 8%-10% to prevent significant losses, and the use of trailing stop-loss strategies to protect profits [8]. - Trend-following strategies are encouraged, where positions are increased in an upward trend and reduced during reversals, avoiding counter-trend actions [8]. - The core of ETF allocation should focus on balancing risk and return, allowing for effective overall risk control without significantly lowering expected returns [8]. Summary of Investment Insights - The investment philosophy can be succinctly summarized as using rules to overcome emotions and achieving compounding through discipline [9].