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二十多年房地产市场野蛮生长给国家与人民带来什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 20:22
Core Insights - The report by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reveals a national housing vacancy rate of 21.3%, indicating approximately 120 million units are idle, significantly exceeding the internationally accepted standard of 5% [1] - The severe imbalance in the real estate market is attributed to local governments' reliance on land finance, which has led to excessive real estate development despite declining population trends [1][3] - The average housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is 18.7, making home ownership increasingly unattainable for average families, particularly in lower-tier cities where the ratio is still high [1] Group 1 - The national housing vacancy rate stands at 21.3%, with first-tier cities averaging 16.5% and third- and fourth-tier cities reaching 26.4% [1] - The report highlights a direct correlation between the overdevelopment of real estate and the land finance model, which has contributed to a significant waste of resources [1][3] - Population decline is evident, with 2023 seeing a birth rate drop below 9 million and a natural growth rate of -0.15%, further exacerbating the housing demand issue [1] Group 2 - Approximately 38% of urban housing is for investment purposes, with nearly 40% of these properties remaining vacant, indicating a shift from housing as a necessity to a financial asset [3] - The real estate market's overreliance on investment has led to a disconnect between supply and actual housing needs, resulting in inflated prices and economic pressure on families [3][4] - The rapid urbanization in China has been criticized for mimicking Western models without considering local conditions, leading to a housing market that is out of sync with real demand [3][4]