国之重器：人口变局与未来挑战 黄金与石油固然是国家经济命脉的支柱，但一个国家最宝贵的财富，却在于其人民——人口。然而，国家统计局近期发布的最新人口数据显示，中国人 口已连续三年呈现负增长态状，这一严峻趋势正引发着经济学界的深刻反思与警醒。 人口洪流逆转，昔日盛景或成绝响？ 回望历史长河，中国的人口轨迹已然发生翻天覆地的变化。1953年，第一次全国人口普查揭示了中国5.82亿的总人口。然而，时至今日，我们正面临一 个令人不安的预测：著名人口经济学专家于2025年3月在北京一场关于人口与经济发展的重要论坛上语出惊人，他预言，若中国家庭普遍不再生育二 胎、三胎，那么在未来五十年内，中国总人口或将从当前的约14亿锐减至5.8亿。这意味着，中国人口规模不仅会跌破10亿大关，更将对国家经济安全和 社会结构的根基产生颠覆性的影响。这一数字为何如此令人心惊？其背后成因与应对之道又在哪里？ 2025年初，国家统计局发布的最新人口数据显示，2024年全年出生人口仅为756万人，而死亡人口却高达1132万人，自然增长率已悄然滑落至-0.27%， 这已是中国人口连续第三年出现负增长。与2023年870万的出生人口相比，更是出现了13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The need to accelerate the construction of a pension service system suitable for China's national conditions, enhancing the sense of security for middle-aged and young people regarding retirement [1] Group 1: Changes in Pension System - Since the reform and opening up, China's pension methods and system have undergone significant changes, transitioning from family-based care to socialized pension services [1] - The basic pension services have evolved from merely providing a safety net to achieving equal and inclusive access, forming a unique "Chinese-style" characteristic [1] Group 2: Population Aging and Its Impact - The background of negative population growth and aging will have long-term effects on the future, with China experiencing the largest and fastest "population-family synchronous change" in human history [1] - Generations "70s", "80s", and "90s" are all facing retirement challenges [1] Group 3: Enhancing Pension Security for Middle-aged and Young People - Five areas of focus to enhance the pension security of the "70s", "80s", and "90s" generations have been proposed [2] - Institutional policy support to establish stable pension expectations, creating a multi-layered policy system from central to local levels [2] - A layered service system to reduce anxiety regarding pension support, including the construction of one-stop comprehensive service centers in communities [2] - Precision in service content to improve service quality, focusing on mental care and social support to alleviate loneliness among the elderly [2] - Intelligent service mechanisms leveraging technology, such as building a pension cloud platform to optimize service matching efficiency [2] - Collaborative and diversified主体协同 to build a pension safety net, attracting social capital through tax reductions and operational subsidies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a significant and continuous population decline, with the latest statistics indicating a decrease of 908,000 people, marking the largest drop since records began [5][6]. Population Decline - Japan's population has been decreasing for 16 consecutive years, with 2024 witnessing a record low of 686,000 births and nearly 1.6 million deaths [6][10]. - The median age in Japan is 49.4 years, with approximately 29.6% of the population aged 65 and older, highlighting the aging demographic [7]. Urban vs. Rural Population Trends - Only Tokyo is experiencing population growth among Japan's 47 prefectures, while other regions are seeing declines, with some areas like Tottori Prefecture dropping below 520,000 residents [9]. - The decline in population has led to the closure of over 400 schools annually and a significant number of private universities failing to meet enrollment targets [9]. Fertility Rate Challenges - Japan's total fertility rate has reached a historic low of 1.15 in 2024, far below the replacement level of 2.1 [10][11]. - Despite efforts to stimulate birth rates, including financial incentives, the fertility rate continues to decline, indicating diminishing returns on such policies [11]. Government Initiatives - The Japanese government has implemented a comprehensive subsidy system for families, with an average total subsidy of 3.52 million yen (approximately 164,000 yuan) for children aged 0-18 [12]. - New policies include free tuition for children from families with three or more children attending national universities, alongside various other financial supports for childbirth and childcare [12]. Comparison with Other Regions - While Japan's fertility rate is low, it is not the lowest in Asia, with South Korea at 0.75. Japan's previous fertility rate of 1.45 has also seen a decline in recent years [11]. - The European Union has reported a population increase, contrasting Japan's decline, attributed to immigration rather than natural growth [13][15]. Immigration Policy Shift - Japan's immigration policy is gradually shifting in response to the declining native population, with a notable increase of 350,000 foreign residents in the past year, reaching a total of 3.77 million [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a continuous population decline for 16 years, with the latest statistics showing a decrease of 908,000 people, marking the largest drop since records began. The total population is now 120.65 million [4][6]. Group 1: Population Decline - Japan's population has decreased by nearly 7 million since 2008, equivalent to the disappearance of two Osaka cities [6]. - The birth rate in Japan reached a historic low of 686,000 in 2024, while the death toll rose to nearly 1.6 million, indicating a significant demographic crisis [8][10]. - The median age in Japan is 49.4 years, with approximately 29.6% of the population aged 65 and older, highlighting the severe aging issue [12][14]. Group 2: Government Response - Japan has invested approximately 66 trillion yen (around 3.2 trillion yuan) over the past 20 years to combat the declining birth rate, but the effectiveness of these measures is questioned [6][20]. - The total fertility rate in Japan is now at 1.15, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, although it is not the lowest in East Asia [20][22]. - The government has implemented extensive financial support for families, including a total average subsidy of 3.52 million yen (about 164,000 yuan) for children aged 0-18 [26][29]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Regions - The European Union's population reached 450.4 million in 2024, marking a continuous increase, with 19 out of 27 member states experiencing population growth [33][34]. - The EU's natural population decline is offset by immigration, with over 2.3 million net immigrants in 2024, contrasting with Japan's reluctance to accept immigrants [38][40]. - Japan's immigration policy may need to shift in response to its declining population, as the number of foreign residents has increased by 350,000 in the past year, reaching a total of 3.77 million [44][45].

以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 来源丨地球知识局（ID： diqiuzhishiju ） 作者丨一猴儿 图源丨 midjourney "发展是最好的避孕药" 一个育龄妇女平均生育2.1个孩子，才能保持人口代际更替平衡。但2020年七普数据表明，我国这一 数值是1.3。2022年， 我国正式进入人口负增长 ，而且这个趋势 难以逆转 。 2024年的联合国《世界人口展望》表明，我国人口负增长将一路走高，并在本世纪中叶保持在 一年 1000万以上的降幅 ，相当于一年减少一个瑞典！ 联合国《世界人口展望2024》中方案预测中国人口变动： 日韩两国则比我们更早进入人口负增长，更是 失控衰退 的典型。韩国是全世界人口生育率最低的国 家。智库研究发现，即便在最乐观的情境下，一百年后的韩国人口也将不足如今的1/3。即便政府提 出了一系列提振生育政策，依然收效甚微。 据联合国预测， 东亚的总和生育率在下个世纪前都将处于世界垫底水平： 可是， 欧洲却解决了这个问题 。作为世界上最早进入工业社会的地区，欧洲 ...

Demographic Trends in Taiwan - Taiwan's total population as of the end of July this year is 23,337,936, reflecting a decrease of 8,805 people compared to June, marking 19 consecutive months of negative growth [1] - The population aged 65 and above is 4.58 million, accounting for 19.64% of the total population, with estimates suggesting Taiwan will officially enter a "super-aged society" this year when the percentage reaches 20% [1] - The total number of households in Taiwan is 9,815,928, an increase of 491,943 households year-on-year [1] Birth and Death Rates - In the first seven months of this year, there were 64,314 newborns, a decrease of 9,984 compared to the same period last year [1] - The number of births in July was 8,939, resulting in a crude birth rate of 4.51‰, which is a decline of 1,485 births from the previous year [1] - The number of deaths in July was 16,846, leading to a crude death rate of 8.50‰ [1] Population Projections - Taiwan's population peaked at 23.6 million in 2019 and has been declining annually since then, with a slight recovery expected in 2023 [1] - Projections indicate that Taiwan's total population may fall below 23 million by 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the demographic challenges faced by countries, particularly focusing on China's declining birth rate and the implications of population inertia, while contrasting it with Europe's approach to immigration as a solution to population decline [5][25]. Group 1: Population Trends in China - The average fertility rate in China is 1.3, significantly below the 2.1 needed for population replacement [5]. - China officially entered a phase of negative population growth in 2022, a trend that is expected to continue [9]. - The United Nations projects that China's population decline could exceed 10 million annually by the middle of this century [9]. Group 2: Comparison with East Asia - Countries like South Korea and Japan have already experienced significant population decline, with South Korea having the lowest fertility rate globally [11]. - Projections indicate that even under optimistic scenarios, South Korea's population could drop to less than one-third of its current size in a century [11]. Group 3: Europe's Population Management - Europe has managed to stabilize its population despite declining birth rates through immigration, with over 600,000 people migrating to EU countries in 2023 [15]. - The influx of immigrants, particularly from non-EU countries, has been crucial in offsetting natural population decline in Europe [15]. - The EU's population exceeded 450 million in 2025, marking four consecutive years of growth post-pandemic [14]. Group 4: Population Inertia and Its Implications - Population inertia refers to the delayed response of population numbers to changes in birth rates, where a decline in fertility does not immediately result in a decrease in population [20]. - In East Asia, rapid declines in fertility rates have led to quicker transitions from population growth to decline, while Europe has a longer period of population inertia due to immigration [23][25]. Group 5: Immigration as a Solution - The article emphasizes that immigration is the most effective way to mitigate negative population growth, as seen in Europe's experience [25]. - European countries have established various policies and institutions to manage immigration and support integration, which has proven essential in addressing labor shortages and demographic challenges [28]. Group 6: Challenges of Integration - Despite the benefits of immigration, Europe faces challenges related to social integration and cultural conflicts, particularly with Muslim immigrant populations [37][42]. - The rise of far-right political movements in Europe reflects growing public concern over immigration and its impact on local cultures and economies [39][40]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while immigration has provided a temporary solution to population decline in Europe, the long-term sustainability of this approach is uncertain, especially as global fertility rates continue to decline [44].

Core Insights - The report by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reveals a national housing vacancy rate of 21.3%, indicating approximately 120 million units are idle, significantly exceeding the internationally accepted standard of 5% [1] - The severe imbalance in the real estate market is attributed to local governments' reliance on land finance, which has led to excessive real estate development despite declining population trends [1][3] - The average housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is 18.7, making home ownership increasingly unattainable for average families, particularly in lower-tier cities where the ratio is still high [1] Group 1 - The national housing vacancy rate stands at 21.3%, with first-tier cities averaging 16.5% and third- and fourth-tier cities reaching 26.4% [1] - The report highlights a direct correlation between the overdevelopment of real estate and the land finance model, which has contributed to a significant waste of resources [1][3] - Population decline is evident, with 2023 seeing a birth rate drop below 9 million and a natural growth rate of -0.15%, further exacerbating the housing demand issue [1] Group 2 - Approximately 38% of urban housing is for investment purposes, with nearly 40% of these properties remaining vacant, indicating a shift from housing as a necessity to a financial asset [3] - The real estate market's overreliance on investment has led to a disconnect between supply and actual housing needs, resulting in inflated prices and economic pressure on families [3][4] - The rapid urbanization in China has been criticized for mimicking Western models without considering local conditions, leading to a housing market that is out of sync with real demand [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a national cash subsidy for child-rearing, marking a significant milestone in China's population policy [1][2] - Starting from January 1, 2025, families with newborns, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children, will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan until the child reaches three years old, totaling 10,800 yuan over three years [1][4] - The subsidy is designed to alleviate family financial burdens and is considered a minimum standard that local governments can increase but not decrease [1][4] Group 2 - The new policy emphasizes fairness by providing equal subsidies for all legally born children, contrasting with previous differentiated subsidy models [3] - It establishes a unified standard for child-rearing subsidies, addressing the disparities seen in local government policies [3] - The policy aims to reduce the financial pressure on local governments while controlling overall fiscal burdens [4] Group 3 - Current demographic challenges include a shrinking reproductive age population, declining birth intentions, and delayed marriage and childbirth ages [5] - The average marriage age for women has increased from 24 in 2010 to over 28, further limiting potential birth rates [5] - The policy is part of a broader strategy to improve the birth rate, which also requires enhancing marriage rates and creating a supportive environment for families [6] Group 4 - The aging population is projected to reach 310 million by 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population, and is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035 [8] - The dual pressures of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy are creating significant social security burdens [8] Group 5 - Gender equality within families is highlighted as a crucial factor in improving birth rates, advocating for shared parenting responsibilities [10] - International examples show that policies encouraging male participation in child-rearing can enhance family dynamics and increase birth intentions [10]

Core Insights - China's total population reached 1.408 billion by the end of 2024, marking three consecutive years of negative growth since 2022 [1][2] - The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.05, the lowest since 1944, indicating a significant decline in birth rates [2][7] - The gender ratio shows 719.09 million males and 689.19 million females, with a gender ratio of 104.3 [1] - Urban population stands at 943.5 million, while rural population is 464.78 million [1] Population Structure - Age distribution: 16.9% (0-14 years), 62.2% (15-59 years), and 20.9% (60 years and above) [2] - The elderly population (65 years and above) accounts for 15.4% of the total population [2] Regional Population Dynamics - Eastern provinces have seen an increase in population share to 40.32%, while all three northeastern provinces experienced negative growth [3] - In 2024, 20 provinces reported population decline, with Shandong, Henan, and Heilongjiang showing the largest decreases [7] - Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang recorded the highest population increases [7] Detailed Population Data by Region - Beijing: 21.83 million, decrease of 0.126 million from 2023 [4] - Shanghai: 24.80 million, increase of 0.072 million from 2023 [4] - Jiangsu: 85.26 million, no change from 2023 [4] - Guangdong: 12.78 million, increase of 0.074 million from 2023 [4] - The overall trend indicates a significant population outflow from northeastern provinces [7] Implications and Recommendations - Immediate action is required to address the declining birth rate, with a focus on incentivizing childbirth [15] - Strategies to combat population decline in rural areas include developing satellite cities and future industries [14]