Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in China's population structure, highlighting the increasing proportion of elderly individuals and the declining proportion of children, which poses new challenges for economic development and social governance during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][4][9]. Population Structure Changes - The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is decreasing, while the proportion of those aged 65 and above is increasing, with 2024 statistics showing 15.81% for the younger group and 15.66% for the older group, indicating a near crossover [5][6]. - By 2024, 19 provinces will have over 14% of their population aged 65 and above, with some provinces like Liaoning and Shanghai exceeding 20% [4][5]. Regional Population Differentiation - The article notes a clear regional differentiation in population structure, with some provinces experiencing a high proportion of elderly individuals compared to children, while others have a higher proportion of children [8]. - For instance, Shanghai has a 65+ population proportion of 20.25% compared to 9.50% for the 0-14 age group, while provinces like Guangdong and Guizhou show a contrasting demographic profile [8]. New Population Issues - The article identifies new population issues such as negative population growth, low birth rates, aging, and regional population disparities that require a shift in population development strategies [9]. Population Service System - The article emphasizes the need to establish a comprehensive population service system covering all life stages, addressing marriage, childbirth, education, employment, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [11]. - Key tasks include promoting positive marriage and childbirth views, improving maternity insurance, and developing inclusive childcare services [11][12]. Utilizing Elderly Workforce - With the increase in life expectancy, optimizing the use of elderly human resources is crucial, as the average life expectancy in 2024 is projected to reach 79 years [14]. - The article suggests developing diverse job opportunities for older individuals and removing age restrictions in employment and social security policies [14][16]. Employment Training for the Elderly - There is a need to create a training system for elderly employment, focusing on digital skills and job readiness to enhance their employability [15]. - Community and family support systems should be established to facilitate intergenerational learning and skill development [15][16].

而要构建制度完善、责任明晰、协同高效的生育支持新格局，贺丹提出构建核心制度，筑牢生育保险、 照护服务、生殖健康的三大支撑。制度是政策落地的保障。聚焦家庭养不起、没人带、生不出的核心痛 点，建立三项基础性制度，形成生育支持的四梁八柱。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称《建议》）提到，倡导积极 婚育观，优化生育支持政策和激励措施，发挥育儿补贴和个人所得税抵扣政策作用，有效降低家庭生育 养育教育成本。《建议》提到，完善生育保险制度，落实生育休假制度，实施早孕关爱行动、孕育和出 生缺陷防治能力提升计划。深入开展托育服务补助示范试点，发展普惠托育和托幼一体化服务，逐步完 善相关制度。 我国医疗方面的支持正在不断完善。公开报道显示，近年来，国家医保局持续指导地方将治疗性辅助生 殖技术纳入报销，大幅减轻不孕不育家庭费用负担，2024年惠及100万人次，助力万千家庭圆了"生育 梦"。国家医保局统计，随着江苏、辽宁11月1日开始实行生育津贴"直付个人"，目前全国已有25个省份 实现生育津贴直接发放到个人。除了生育津贴直发个人，近年来，我国全面提升住院分娩医疗费用保障 水平，积极推动政策范围内生 ...

Core Insights - Liang Jianzhang, founder of Ctrip and a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, warns that if China does not intervene in its population issues, India's population could be three times that of China in forty years [1][4][17] - The decline in China's population began after reaching a peak of 1.41 billion in 2022, with projections indicating a further decrease to 1.40828 billion by 2024, marking three consecutive years of negative growth [6][7] - The birth rate in China has dropped to 6.77‰, with predictions suggesting that the number of newborns could fall below 7 million by 2025, exacerbating the already low total fertility rate [7][12] Population Trends - In 2024, the number of newborns is projected to be 9.54 million, while deaths could reach 10.93 million, resulting in a net population decrease of 1.39 million [7] - The total fertility rate in China has been below 1.0, leading to significant demographic challenges, including a shrinking labor force [7][8] - By 2050, China's labor force is expected to decline from 800 million to 750 million, impacting economic foundations [8] Economic Implications - The reduction in the working-age population will lead to rising labor costs, challenging the competitiveness of traditional manufacturing sectors in China [7][12] - Liang Jianzhang emphasizes that innovation relies on a sufficient number of young people, and a decline in this demographic could hinder technological advancement [10] Aging Population - The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above in China has surpassed 21% and is projected to exceed 30% by 2035, creating immense pressure on the pension and healthcare systems [13] - The social security system may face funding shortages due to the increasing elderly population [13] Comparative Analysis - Japan serves as a cautionary example of delayed action on population issues, having faced negative growth and severe aging since the mid-1990s, despite various government interventions [15] - In contrast, India has a younger population with a fertility rate of 2.05, which is nearly double that of China, positioning it for potential economic advantages in the coming decades [17][19] Societal Factors - Economic pressures, time constraints, and changing social attitudes are significant factors contributing to the reluctance of young people in China to have children [21][23] - Women face particularly difficult choices between career and family, compounded by societal expectations and workplace discrimination [23] Proposed Solutions - Liang Jianzhang advocates for reforms that support families willing to have children, including financial assistance, improved education and healthcare systems, and changes to workplace culture [25] - A societal consensus on the importance of addressing population issues is crucial for creating a favorable environment for childbirth [25]

Group 1 - The United Nations predicts a significant decline in China's birth rate, projecting only 7.37 million births by 2050 and a further drop to 3.1 million by 2100, which could lead to school closures and recruitment challenges for the military [1][3] - China's population decline poses challenges not only domestically but also globally, as a reduction in the labor force may disrupt the world supply chain [3][5] Group 2 - The decrease in population is expected to result in a labor shortage, which could slow down economic growth that previously benefited from a demographic dividend, with growth rates potentially falling below 10% [5][19] - China has been a crucial part of the global supply chain, exemplified by companies like Apple, which relies on China's extensive labor force and manufacturing capabilities [7][14] - As labor costs rise due to population decline, companies like Apple are already shifting parts of their production to countries like India and Vietnam, which may not match the quality standards previously met in China [9][11] Group 3 - The United Nations suggests that increasing China's population growth rate from 1.19% in 2023 to 1.39% by 2050 and 1.48% by 2100 could stabilize the population [15] - However, improving birth rates requires enhancing the willingness of Chinese citizens to have children, which has proven challenging despite various measures taken by the government [17][21] - The trend of declining population alongside economic development is not unique to China, as similar patterns have been observed in developed countries like Japan and South Korea [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the demographic challenges faced by China and East Asian countries due to declining birth rates and population aging, contrasting this with Europe's approach of utilizing immigration to stabilize and grow their populations [5][11][21]. Group 1: Population Trends in China and East Asia - The average fertility rate required for population replacement is 2.1, but China's rate is only 1.3 as of the 2020 census, indicating a significant decline [5]. - By 2024, the UN projects that China's population decline will exceed 10 million annually, equating to a loss comparable to the entire population of Sweden each year [7]. - Countries like South Korea and Japan have already experienced severe population declines, with projections suggesting that South Korea's population could drop to less than one-third of its current size in a century, despite government efforts to boost birth rates [9]. Group 2: Europe's Immigration Strategy - Europe, despite early declines in birth rates, has managed to stabilize and even grow its population through immigration, with over 600,000 people migrating to EU countries in 2023, primarily from non-EU nations [11]. - The influx of immigrants, particularly from Muslim-majority countries, has not only increased the population base but also contributed to higher birth rates, thus extending the period of population growth inertia [21][19]. - European countries have established various population research institutions to monitor trends and develop policies, which have included open immigration policies to counteract natural population declines [27][28]. Group 3: Population Inertia and Its Implications - The concept of "population inertia" suggests that once a demographic trend is established, it is difficult to reverse, meaning that even if birth rates increase, the population may continue to decline for some time [15][17]. - In East Asia, rapid declines in birth rates have led to a swift transition from population growth to decline, while Europe has experienced a longer period of growth inertia due to immigration [19][21]. - The article emphasizes that immigration is the most effective method to mitigate population decline, as seen in Europe's experience, where immigration has been crucial in maintaining demographic balance [21][25]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Considerations - While immigration has provided a temporary solution to population decline in Europe, deeper issues related to social integration and cultural conflicts remain significant challenges [34][40]. - The rise of far-right political movements in Europe reflects growing public concern over immigration and its impact on social cohesion, indicating that the long-term sustainability of this strategy is uncertain [37][39]. - Russia is also facing population challenges and is considering importing foreign labor to address workforce shortages, but this approach carries its own political risks [43][45].

Core Insights - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, raising concerns about its economic implications and social structure [1][3][5] Population Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in 2024, the birth rate dropped to 7.56 million while the death rate reached 11.32 million, resulting in a natural growth rate of -0.27% [3][5] - The total fertility rate has fallen to 1.07, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 [3][5] Economic Implications - The decline in population is expected to lead to a labor shortage and increased pressure on the pension system, with projections indicating that by 2040, the elderly population will constitute 30.4% of the total population [5][10] - The economic impact of negative population growth could reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points for every five years of continued decline, potentially dropping GDP growth below 1% by 2070 [8][10] Factors Influencing Birth Rates - High costs of raising children are a primary deterrent, with estimates indicating that raising a child to university graduation can cost an average of 2.12 million yuan in first-tier cities [7][8] - Housing costs are also a significant barrier, with average prices in first-tier cities nearing 10.8 million yuan per square meter, making it difficult for families to afford adequate living space [7][8] Policy Responses - The Chinese government has initiated various policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives for families and extended maternity leave [10][11] - Housing policies have been adjusted to provide lower down payment requirements for families with multiple children [11] International Comparisons - Japan's experience with negative population growth offers lessons for China, as it faces similar challenges but on a larger scale [9][10] - Successful international policies, such as France's family subsidies and Sweden's dual-income parenting model, highlight the importance of comprehensive support systems [14][15] Societal Perspectives - There is a need for a shift in societal attitudes towards child-rearing, as many families feel pressured to provide high-quality education and living conditions, which discourages larger families [15][16] - Promoting gender equality in the workplace and supporting women's career advancement are crucial for improving birth rates [13][15] Long-term Outlook - While the challenges posed by negative population growth are significant, they also present opportunities for economic transformation, particularly in automation and the "silver economy" related to aging populations [16][17] - A coordinated effort from the government, businesses, and society is essential to address the population crisis and ensure sustainable development [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The need to accelerate the construction of a pension service system suitable for China's national conditions, enhancing the sense of security for middle-aged and young people regarding retirement [1] Group 1: Changes in Pension System - Since the reform and opening up, China's pension methods and system have undergone significant changes, transitioning from family-based care to socialized pension services [1] - The basic pension services have evolved from merely providing a safety net to achieving equal and inclusive access, forming a unique "Chinese-style" characteristic [1] Group 2: Population Aging and Its Impact - The background of negative population growth and aging will have long-term effects on the future, with China experiencing the largest and fastest "population-family synchronous change" in human history [1] - Generations "70s", "80s", and "90s" are all facing retirement challenges [1] Group 3: Enhancing Pension Security for Middle-aged and Young People - Five areas of focus to enhance the pension security of the "70s", "80s", and "90s" generations have been proposed [2] - Institutional policy support to establish stable pension expectations, creating a multi-layered policy system from central to local levels [2] - A layered service system to reduce anxiety regarding pension support, including the construction of one-stop comprehensive service centers in communities [2] - Precision in service content to improve service quality, focusing on mental care and social support to alleviate loneliness among the elderly [2] - Intelligent service mechanisms leveraging technology, such as building a pension cloud platform to optimize service matching efficiency [2] - Collaborative and diversified主体协同 to build a pension safety net, attracting social capital through tax reductions and operational subsidies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant demographic crisis in China, predicting a drastic population decline from 1.4 billion to 580 million in the next 50 years, emphasizing the urgency of addressing this issue [2][18]. Group 1: Population Decline - The prediction by economist Lang Xianping indicates a potential population drop to 580 million in 50 years if current birth rates continue [18]. - The birth rate has been declining sharply, with newborns falling from 1,846,000 in 2016 to 902,000 in 2023, marking a significant decrease [10][14]. - In 2024, the projected number of newborns is 954,000, while deaths are expected to reach 1,093,000, resulting in a net population decrease of 139,000 [16]. Group 2: Aging Population - The elderly population (60 years and above) reached 290 million in 2023, accounting for 21.1% of the total population, indicating a rapidly aging society [20]. - By 2031, it is projected that one in five individuals will be 65 years or older, leading to a significant increase in the old-age dependency ratio [22]. - The old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 22.5% in 2023 to 48.8% by 2050, indicating a growing burden on the working-age population [24]. Group 3: Reasons for Low Birth Rates - Young couples cite the high cost of raising children as a primary reason for not having more kids, with expenses for a single child reaching tens of thousands of yuan [29][31]. - The financial burden of housing loans and living expenses leaves little room for additional children, making it increasingly difficult for young families to consider expanding [31]. - The impact of childbirth on women's careers also deters many from having children, as societal pressures and workplace biases create additional challenges [33].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a significant and continuous population decline, with the latest statistics indicating a decrease of 908,000 people, marking the largest drop since records began [5][6]. Population Decline - Japan's population has been decreasing for 16 consecutive years, with 2024 witnessing a record low of 686,000 births and nearly 1.6 million deaths [6][10]. - The median age in Japan is 49.4 years, with approximately 29.6% of the population aged 65 and older, highlighting the aging demographic [7]. Urban vs. Rural Population Trends - Only Tokyo is experiencing population growth among Japan's 47 prefectures, while other regions are seeing declines, with some areas like Tottori Prefecture dropping below 520,000 residents [9]. - The decline in population has led to the closure of over 400 schools annually and a significant number of private universities failing to meet enrollment targets [9]. Fertility Rate Challenges - Japan's total fertility rate has reached a historic low of 1.15 in 2024, far below the replacement level of 2.1 [10][11]. - Despite efforts to stimulate birth rates, including financial incentives, the fertility rate continues to decline, indicating diminishing returns on such policies [11]. Government Initiatives - The Japanese government has implemented a comprehensive subsidy system for families, with an average total subsidy of 3.52 million yen (approximately 164,000 yuan) for children aged 0-18 [12]. - New policies include free tuition for children from families with three or more children attending national universities, alongside various other financial supports for childbirth and childcare [12]. Comparison with Other Regions - While Japan's fertility rate is low, it is not the lowest in Asia, with South Korea at 0.75. Japan's previous fertility rate of 1.45 has also seen a decline in recent years [11]. - The European Union has reported a population increase, contrasting Japan's decline, attributed to immigration rather than natural growth [13][15]. Immigration Policy Shift - Japan's immigration policy is gradually shifting in response to the declining native population, with a notable increase of 350,000 foreign residents in the past year, reaching a total of 3.77 million [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a continuous population decline for 16 years, with the latest statistics showing a decrease of 908,000 people, marking the largest drop since records began. The total population is now 120.65 million [4][6]. Group 1: Population Decline - Japan's population has decreased by nearly 7 million since 2008, equivalent to the disappearance of two Osaka cities [6]. - The birth rate in Japan reached a historic low of 686,000 in 2024, while the death toll rose to nearly 1.6 million, indicating a significant demographic crisis [8][10]. - The median age in Japan is 49.4 years, with approximately 29.6% of the population aged 65 and older, highlighting the severe aging issue [12][14]. Group 2: Government Response - Japan has invested approximately 66 trillion yen (around 3.2 trillion yuan) over the past 20 years to combat the declining birth rate, but the effectiveness of these measures is questioned [6][20]. - The total fertility rate in Japan is now at 1.15, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, although it is not the lowest in East Asia [20][22]. - The government has implemented extensive financial support for families, including a total average subsidy of 3.52 million yen (about 164,000 yuan) for children aged 0-18 [26][29]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Regions - The European Union's population reached 450.4 million in 2024, marking a continuous increase, with 19 out of 27 member states experiencing population growth [33][34]. - The EU's natural population decline is offset by immigration, with over 2.3 million net immigrants in 2024, contrasting with Japan's reluctance to accept immigrants [38][40]. - Japan's immigration policy may need to shift in response to its declining population, as the number of foreign residents has increased by 350,000 in the past year, reaching a total of 3.77 million [44][45].