Core Insights - The narrative of wealth and destiny in China has been shattered, as exemplified by the "拆二代" (demolition second generation) now delivering food, highlighting the fleeting nature of compensation from property demolition [1][12] - The golden era of real estate has ended, with a slowdown in property prices and a decline in urban expansion, leading to questions about future economic sustainability [3][5] - The reliance on real estate for economic growth has created a precarious situation, where a downturn in the sector could destabilize various industries and employment [7][8] Economic Structure - The past two decades have seen a reliance on land finance to support local development, with real estate driving multiple industries and families accumulating debt [5][7] - The demographic shift, including a declining birth rate and reluctance among youth to marry and have children, poses a challenge to sustaining the real estate-driven economic model [5][8] - The wealth generated from property transactions has not translated into sustainable income for many, leading to a return to financial instability for those who once benefited from demolition compensation [5][10] Future Directions - A shift away from real estate as the primary growth engine is necessary, focusing instead on industrial upgrades, technological innovation, and human capital development [8][10] - There is a need to reform the fiscal system to reduce dependence on land finance and create a more sustainable local revenue model [8][10] - Urbanization should be redefined to ensure equitable resource distribution between urban and rural areas, moving towards urban renewal rather than large-scale demolition [10][12]

央视镜头前，前央行副行长朱敏"捅破"房价真相：3大支撑全反转，未来5年楼市要变天？ 央视《面对面》栏目里，前央行副行长朱敏一句话让现场气氛瞬间凝固："房价很难再涨起来了"。面对主持人"会不会影响信心"的担忧，他更直白回 怼："想让房价再像90年代涨100倍？你和子孙都没这信心"。 为何这位前央行高官敢在国家级平台"说真话"？答案藏在支撑房价上涨的三大根基里，如今每一个都在发生根本性转变。 2. 土地财政"断链"：8.7万亿到4.87万亿，收入腰斩 过去20年，地方政府靠"卖地"赚钱的模式走不通了。2021年全国土地出让金还高达8.7万亿，2024年就暴跌到4.87万亿，近乎腰斩。 问题出在循环断裂：以前是地方卖地、开发商拿地、购房者贷款买房、银行放贷，地方、开发商、银行都能赚；现在购房需求没了，房子卖不动，开发商不 敢拿地，整个链条直接"停摆"。 3. 观念变了：年轻人不再愿用三代人积蓄换一套房 过去"有房才有家"的想法，正在被年轻人抛弃。北京一个普通家庭买套房要500万，首付150万得全家凑，贷款350万每月要还2万——这意味着未来30年，全 家除了基本开支，不敢换工作、不敢创业、甚至不敢生病，谁愿意过这样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical state of China's real estate market and the implications for the macro economy, emphasizing the need for a shift in policy and perception regarding housing prices and land finance [2][4]. Group 1: Land Finance and Policy - Land finance is defined as the fiscal mechanism of local governments that possess land transfer and planning rights [4]. - To stabilize the real estate market, it is essential to abandon quantity targets and halt the influx of new land supply, focusing instead on redeeming excess properties [4]. - The current approach of relying on land sales for financing contradicts the central government's strategy of transitioning from incremental expansion to qualitative improvement [4]. Group 2: Impact of Housing Prices - The decline in housing prices primarily affects ordinary citizens rather than the wealthy, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets in China [4]. - The homeownership rates are notably high, with urban residents at 96.3% and rural residents at 94.8%, indicating that housing is a critical asset for the majority [4]. - The article argues that rising housing prices can help reduce wealth inequality, contrary to the belief that falling prices benefit the majority [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Transformation - A dual-track system is proposed, distinguishing between market-driven housing and affordable housing, to ensure both price stability and housing accessibility [5]. - The article suggests that the best source of affordable housing is not new construction but rather the repurchase of excess market housing [5]. - The handling of unfinished projects should focus on rescuing banks rather than merely saving companies [5]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - The real estate sector is currently in a downturn, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment [7][9]. - From January to August 2023, new housing sales dropped by 4.7% in area and 7.3% in value, while real estate development investment fell by 12.9% [7][9]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased, with a notable rise in the waiting period for inventory clearance [10][13]. Group 5: Economic Contribution and Future Outlook - The real estate sector contributes approximately 20% to GDP and 40% to fiscal revenue, highlighting its importance to the economy [19][22]. - Despite its significance, the probability of housing prices continuing to rise is deemed low due to oversupply and demographic challenges [23][24]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate market must return to a supply-demand balance, as excessive price increases lead to unsustainable debt levels for developers [28][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting approaches of Guangzhou and the "North-South" cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) regarding the lifting of housing purchase restrictions, highlighting Guangzhou's aggressive stance compared to the cautious approach of the latter cities [1][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Differences - Guangzhou has announced a complete removal of purchase restrictions by September 30, 2024, aiming to stabilize its declining housing market [2][4]. - In contrast, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are taking a gradual approach, with Beijing expected to lift restrictions by August 2025, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen [2][5]. Group 2: Market Pressures - Guangzhou's decision to lift restrictions is driven by significant market pressure, with a reported decline of over 12% in second-hand home prices within a year and a prolonged inventory turnover period exceeding 24 months in some areas [7][9]. - The reliance on land finance in Guangzhou, which exceeds 40%, has also pressured the city to stimulate the housing market through the removal of restrictions [9][10]. Group 3: Demand Structure - The demand structure in Guangzhou is primarily local, with 75% of housing priced below 5 million, contrasting with the broader appeal of properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to national wealth [10][20]. - The gradual lifting of restrictions in Guangzhou has been accompanied by measures to mitigate speculative buying, such as price registration mechanisms and property tax trials [11][12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While a complete removal of restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely in the long term, it is deemed difficult in the short term due to the need for multiple conditions to be met [4][25]. - The article suggests that the future approach for these cities will likely involve incremental adjustments rather than an outright removal of restrictions, maintaining a cautious stance to prevent market overheating [26][27].

Core Insights - The article highlights the severe imbalance in the real estate market in Linzhou, a county-level city in China, where over 1 million housing units have been built for a population of approximately 330,000, indicating a supply far exceeding actual demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Linzhou's housing supply has reached nearly 7 times the estimated reasonable demand, with over 650,000 units completed as of March 2025, leading to a significant oversupply crisis [2][4] - The influx of 27 developers investing a total of 83.7 billion yuan in Linzhou from 2020 to 2025 reflects a speculative frenzy that has now turned into a precarious situation as market expectations shift [3][4] - The average price of second-hand homes in Linzhou has plummeted to 2,000 yuan per square meter, a nearly 70% decrease from its peak in 2018, indicating a drastic market correction [3][4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reliance on land finance has led to 42% of Linzhou's total fiscal revenue coming from land sales between 2017 and 2022, significantly higher than the national average, which has fueled excessive real estate development [4][6] - The estimated value of idle housing resources in Linzhou exceeds 45 billion yuan, representing a substantial waste of resources that could have been better utilized in the local economy [8][9] - The decline in housing prices has resulted in many homeowners facing negative equity, with some unable to meet mortgage payments, highlighting the financial strain on residents [9][10] Group 3: Policy Responses and Future Outlook - In response to the crisis, the Linzhou government has initiated measures to halt new residential land supply and control new housing approvals, aiming to stabilize the market [11][12] - The article emphasizes the need for a shift in the real estate market towards a focus on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative asset, advocating for supply-side reforms and improved housing market systems [12][17] - The situation in Linzhou serves as a cautionary tale for other regions, underscoring the importance of adhering to economic principles and avoiding blind expansion in real estate development [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - The current deep adjustment in China's real estate market is triggering a chain reaction in the macro economy, raising questions about the future of land finance, the impact of falling housing prices on ordinary people, and the parallel operation of affordable and commercial housing. The key to overcoming the current predicament lies in distinguishing between "land finance" and "land fiscal policy" and promoting equity market reforms [1][5][15]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate is the core source of credit for monetary creation in China, and its stability directly affects household wealth, local government debt, and domestic demand [1][10]. - The choice between "abandoning quantity to protect price" or "abandoning price to protect quantity" is crucial in the current declining cycle of the real estate market [6][7]. - If the focus is on maintaining quantity, the market will not stabilize; instead, it is essential to stop new land supply and clear existing inventory to achieve price stabilization [8][11]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Housing Prices - The belief that falling housing prices benefit the majority is incorrect, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets in China, with urban households holding 77.7% of their total assets in real estate [9][10]. - The macroeconomic impact of real estate is often underestimated, as it plays a critical role in the debt structure and monetary creation process [10][11]. - The misconception that housing demand has disappeared overlooks the substantial existing stock of real estate, which can still generate liquidity and credit if properly managed [11][12]. Group 3: Affordable Housing and Market Structure - The dual-track system of affordable and commercial housing is essential for addressing housing needs without suppressing commercial housing prices [15][16]. - Successful implementation of this dual-track system requires a clear understanding that rising housing prices can stimulate demand, contrary to the belief that price suppression will enhance market activity [15][16]. - The government should focus on repurchasing excess commercial housing to convert it into affordable housing, which can simultaneously address market stabilization and social welfare [15][16]. Group 4: Urban Renewal and Economic Growth - Urban renewal should focus on creating cash flow from existing assets rather than merely replacing old structures with new ones [19][21]. - The role of urban villages in providing low-cost housing is crucial for maintaining competitive business environments, especially in southern cities [22][23]. - A successful urban renewal strategy should empower property owners to lead the process, ensuring that funding comes from their own balance sheets rather than relying on government land sales [23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy from the central government supports the renovation and reconstruction of old housing, which may present investment opportunities in the real estate market, particularly for old properties in prime locations [5][8]. Policy Implications - The policy aims to shift urban development from rapid expansion to improving existing housing stock, indicating a focus on quality over quantity in urban planning [4][8]. - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the housing market, moving away from reliance on population influx for demand [4][8]. Market Dynamics - Successful examples of renovation, such as the transformation of the Zhejiang Gongshang University neighborhood, show significant price increases post-renovation, with prices rising from 30,000 to 46,000-50,000 CNY per square meter [3][6]. - However, not all old properties qualify for renovation; only those deemed dangerous or dilapidated are eligible, limiting the scope of potential investment opportunities [6][7]. Financial Considerations - The financial burden of renovation falls on homeowners, with costs potentially reaching 350,000 CNY for a 50 square meter unit, which may deter participation in some cases [7]. - Local governments rely heavily on land sales for revenue, which may restrict the widespread implementation of the renovation policy, as it could reduce demand for new developments [7][8]. Conclusion - While there are opportunities for value appreciation in core areas with old properties, the majority of ordinary old properties may not see significant benefits due to various constraints, including funding, homeowner consent, and urban planning regulations [8][9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "whale fall" as a metaphor for the decline of the real estate market in China, contrasting it with the idea of rebirth and renewal in nature [1] - Over the past two decades, China's public service prices have been significantly lower than the international average, with electricity prices at less than 60% of the global average and water prices among the lowest in the world [1] - The decline in real estate sales is leading to reduced land auction revenues, which are a primary source of local government income, resulting in increased public service costs [1][3] Group 2 - The article highlights a significant drop in land sale revenues from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to an expected 3 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a loss of nearly 6 trillion yuan [3] - The transition from a subsidized public service model to a more market-driven approach is underway, suggesting that prices will become more transparent but also more expensive [4] - The expectation for a rebound in housing prices is unrealistic; instead, the focus is on achieving a "soft landing" for the real estate sector [4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for individuals to rationally adjust their household budgets in response to rising costs in education, energy, and transportation [6] - It advises abandoning the belief that all properties will appreciate in value, as the increase in public service costs is expected to be a widespread trend [7] - The importance of monitoring the fiscal health of cities is highlighted, as only those with strong industries and stable tax revenues will be able to maintain quality public services [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of Shenzhen's real estate market, highlighting its transformation from a housing shortage to a thriving market driven by innovative policies and market demands. It emphasizes the role of real estate in Shenzhen's urban development and economic growth over the past decades [1][2][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1979, Shenzhen was established as a city, facing a housing shortage and poor living conditions. The government aimed to build over 300 housing units within a year, but budget constraints limited funding to 50,000 yuan [1]. - The concept of "land finance" emerged as a solution, allowing local governments to generate revenue through land use rights, which was initially restricted by law [1][2]. Group 2: Development Milestones - The establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate Company in 1980 marked the beginning of China's first real estate development company, leading to the creation of the first commercial housing project, Donghu Liyuan [2][4]. - The introduction of the pre-sale system, inspired by Hong Kong, allowed developers to sell properties before completion, significantly impacting the market dynamics [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Evolution - In 1987, Shenzhen implemented a land management reform, allowing land use rights to be auctioned, which became a standard practice and generated substantial funds for urban development [5][7]. - The 1998 housing reform marked the end of welfare housing distribution, transitioning to a market-oriented housing system, which initiated a "golden era" for real estate [7][11]. Group 4: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - By 2014, the real estate market reached a supply-demand balance, prompting a shift in policy focus towards housing as a necessity rather than an investment [13]. - Shenzhen's real estate market is now entering a phase of stock development, with ongoing urban renewal projects and a focus on improving living conditions [14][15]. - Recent policies aim to enhance housing affordability and supply, particularly for new residents and young people, reflecting a commitment to sustainable urban development [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of studying fiscal history to understand the underlying factors that shape modern states and societies, arguing that financial capabilities often determine the outcomes of historical events and conflicts [2][3][12]. Fiscal History Insights - Fiscal history helps to debunk grand narratives about the origins of modern states, highlighting the concept of the "fiscal-military state" as essential [3]. - In the late medieval period, royal finances were limited, relying on unstable sources such as land rents and tariffs, leading to temporary measures for war funding [4]. - The 16th century marked the beginning of a "long war era" in Europe, compelling states to find more stable financing methods [5]. - The Glorious Revolution in England (1688) led to parliamentary control over finances, establishing a national debt system and the Bank of England, which enabled sustained military engagement [6]. - France's fiscal structure was flawed, with tax burdens disproportionately on the common people, leading to high debt costs and eventual state bankruptcy, which contributed to the French Revolution [7]. - During the Napoleonic Wars, Britain leveraged its global capital markets and efficient tax systems to finance prolonged conflicts [8]. Case Studies in Fiscal Capacity - The Crimean War (1853-1856) is framed as a test of fiscal capacity, with Britain and France having established robust debt markets, while Russia's reliance on serfdom and limited domestic capital led to its defeat [9]. - The fiscal crisis in Russia prompted significant reforms, including the abolition of serfdom and the establishment of a modern fiscal and economic system [9]. Broader Implications of Fiscal History - Fiscal history reveals that financial resources directly influence the success of wars and have profound effects on social structures and national identity [12]. - Economic historian Joseph Schumpeter's insights suggest that a nation's fiscal history encapsulates its cultural and social dynamics, providing a clearer understanding of historical developments [12][13]. - Schumpeter posits that modern nations and national identities are shaped by fiscal pressures, indicating that taxation plays a crucial role in state formation [14][15]. Historical Context in China - The early Republic of China faced significant turmoil, attributed to a weak fiscal foundation, with the central government heavily reliant on tariffs and external debts, leading to fragmented political power [16][18]. - The fiscal decentralization trend began in the late Qing dynasty, with local powers retaining tax revenues, which contributed to the political fragmentation observed during the early Republic [17]. - The establishment of the Nationalist government in 1927 aimed to unify fiscal authority, but true fiscal centralization was not achieved until after 1949, with significant reforms occurring in the 1990s [18]. Conclusion - Understanding fiscal history, alongside population history, is crucial for grasping the true pulse of historical developments and societal changes [19].