Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with predictions indicating a prolonged adjustment period for housing prices, which have already seen substantial declines in some areas [8][11]. Group 1: Expert Predictions - Vanke founder Wang Shi emphasizes that the adjustment in the real estate market will take several years, and current price declines are not indicative of a quick recovery [8]. - He suggests that ordinary individuals should refrain from rushing to buy properties and should instead adopt a wait-and-see approach [8]. - Wang Shi predicts a severe polarization among real estate companies, where those with high debt and poor product quality may face bankruptcy or mergers, while financially stable companies focusing on quality will thrive [11]. Group 2: Market Trends - The explosive demand for housing has largely been exhausted, with urbanization rates stabilizing at over 65% as of 2023, indicating a shift in market dynamics [16]. - Housing prices in major cities have escalated significantly over the past two decades, making them less accessible even after recent declines [16]. - The demographic shift, including a decrease in newborns and an aging population, is expected to further alter housing demand [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Wang Shi advises monitoring price differentiation trends, noting that major cities and new first-tier cities like Wuhan and Chengdu will likely maintain stronger price support compared to third- and fourth-tier cities facing population outflows [18]. - There may be opportunities in the market for improved housing, as older properties become less desirable due to maintenance issues, leading to a preference for low-density, well-managed communities [18]. - The overall sentiment aligns with previous views that purchasing in core urban areas is advisable for self-use, while speculative investments should be approached with caution [20].