Core Insights - The forum highlighted the transition in China's real estate sector from a focus on property as a wealth generator to a more sustainable model that prioritizes living quality and community needs [2][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for diversified income sources for urban residents, signaling a shift away from the "property-centric" wealth logic [7][10] Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - 70% of urban household wealth is tied to real estate, meaning a 10% fluctuation in property prices can impact trillions in household assets [7] - New residential prices in 70 major cities have been declining, with a 0.4% month-on-month drop in September and a 0.6% drop in second-hand housing prices, marking the largest decline since last year's fourth quarter [7][10] - In first-tier cities, second-hand housing prices have decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with some hot school district properties in Guangzhou and Shenzhen seeing price drops exceeding 20% from peak values [7] Group 2: Land Finance Transformation - Local governments are shifting from "incremental land sales" to "stock operation," indicating a move away from reliance on land finance, which has historically been a significant revenue source [4][10] - Over 80% of local government revenue comes from land sales, but there has been a 10% year-on-year decline in land transfer fees in key cities, while some core cities like Shanghai and Beijing have seen a 19.7% increase in land sales revenue [10][11] - The new model proposed in the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on improving existing properties and enhancing their quality and efficiency, such as converting idle office buildings into residential spaces [11] Group 3: Youth Housing Challenges - Young people, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are increasingly rejecting traditional milestones like homeownership, marriage, and parenthood due to financial pressures, with housing costs consuming over 70% of their average income [12][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to address youth housing issues by optimizing affordable housing supply and ensuring quality living conditions, which could encourage young people to consider marriage and family [13][14] - A survey indicated that 68% of young people would consider marriage and children if stable affordable housing were available, highlighting the need for housing solutions that do not compromise their financial freedom [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of real estate will focus on understanding and meeting the needs of residents rather than merely increasing the quantity of housing [15][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a guiding framework for transitioning the real estate sector towards a model that supports sustainable living and community well-being, moving away from the "land myth" [15][16]

国家出手买房！释放什么信号？你还在等房价下跌吗？ 在房地产市场经历调整周期、购房者普遍持观望态度的当下，"房价会不会继续跌""什么时候买房最合适"成为无数家庭热议的核心话题。一边是部分城市 房价的波动调整，一边是刚需群体的住房诉求与改善型需求的释放诉求，市场陷入"想买不敢买"的纠结困境。然而，2025年以来，从中央到地方，一系列 针对性强、力度空前的房地产支持政策密集落地，涵盖金融信贷、税收优惠、保障供给等多个关键领域，每一项政策都有权威官方发布背书，每一组数据 都可追溯源头。这些"真金白银"的支持与"精准滴灌"的调控，不仅为市场注入强心剂，更清晰传递出稳定房地产市场的明确信号。此时，读懂政策导向、 看清市场变化，比单纯等待房价涨跌更具现实意义。 一、金融政策精准发力：房贷利率创历史新低，减负效应显著 2025年，央行通过多轮政策调整，持续降低购房融资成本，为刚需和改善型购房者送上"真金白银"的实惠。2025年5月7日，中国人民银行官网发布公告， 下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，其中5年以上首套公积金贷款利率从2.85%降至2.6%，5年以下（含5年）降至2.1% 。这一调整预计每年可为 居民节省 ...

一场"稳预期"的年末供地盛宴 近日，武汉市自然资源和城乡建设局发布《武汉市拍卖出让国有建设用地使用权公告（武告字〔2025年〕27号）》，一次性推出27宗地块，总起始价87.99 亿元。其中，涉宅用地高达24宗，起始总价约83.53亿元，将于2025年12月9日统一网上拍卖。 这不仅是今年武汉土地市场罕见的"集中供地"操作，更是一次精准回应市场预期、稳定楼市信心的关键举措。在房地产深度调整期，如此大规模、高效率的 供地节奏，传递出武汉"稳地价、稳房价、稳预期"的坚定态度。 你是否也在关注：这次集中供地，会否成为武汉楼市的新拐点？哪些区域将迎来新一波开发热潮？ 区域分布：从"单核集聚"到"多中心辐射" 本次27宗地块覆盖全市八大行政区，其中新洲区9宗、江夏区9宗、蔡甸区2宗、江汉区2宗、硚口区2宗、东湖高新区1宗、洪山区1宗、汉阳区1宗。 远城区（新洲、江夏、蔡甸）合计20宗，占比超八成；而主城区（江汉、硚口、汉阳、洪山）仅6宗，但个个"含金量"十足。 这一分布清晰表明：武汉正加速从"单核集聚"向"多中心辐射"转型。远城区承接人口外溢与产业转移，主城区则聚焦高品质稀缺资源供给——城市发展逻辑 正在重构。 重点地 ...

这篇经济评论分析房价下跌背后的经济转型近年来，中国房地产市场经历了深度调整，曾经被视为只涨不跌的房价，自2021年下半年开始出现转折，到2025 年，一二级线城市平均房价较2021年高点下跌约40%，部分三四线城市跌幅甚至超过50%，曾经最为坚挺的一线城市也未能幸免，北京、上海、深圳等地房 价出现显著回落，这场调整看似是房地产市场的周期性波动，背后的真相是什么？ 房价下跌的多维影响 房价下跌首先对居民消费心理产生了意想不到的冲击，与传统经济逻辑相悖，房价下跌并未带来消费的繁荣。 统计数据显示，2025年前三季度社会消费品零售总额增速下滑至4.5%，而居民储蓄余额却攀升至151.2万亿元的历史高位。 这种看似矛盾的现象背后是"逆向财富效应"在发挥作用 。 当房产占据家庭资产近70%比重时，房价下跌使居民感觉"变穷"，从而减少消费、增加储蓄。 一个典型例子是：一个家庭在2020年以500万元购入的房产，到2025年市值降至300万元，但银行贷款余额仍有320万元，这种"负资产"状况迫使家庭紧缩开 支，延缓大宗消费决策 。 房价调整还加剧了城市之间的分化，人口持续流入、产业基础扎实的城市如深圳、杭州、苏州，虽然土地 ...

图片来源：视觉中国 每经记者｜吴若凡 董青枝 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 对房地产领域的宏观调控，中央再次提高了调门，首次明确提出"坚决遏制房价上涨"。 中共中央政治局7月31日召开会议，会议提出，下决心解决好房地产市场问题，坚持因城施策，促进供 求平衡，合理引导预期，整治市场秩序，坚决遏制房价上涨。加快建立促进房地产市场平稳健康发展长 效机制。 向市场传递出坚定信号 根据新华网的报道，今年1~6月，各地房地产调控政策发布次数高达192次，比去年同期的116次多出 65%。共有73个城市出台调控政策，包含限购政策135条、限贷政策176条，51个城市以及海南全域实行 限售政策。 本次中共中央政治局会议提出，"坚决遏制房价上涨"，这向市场传递出了前所未有的坚定信号。 全联房地产商会创会会长聂梅生在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时认为，此次政治局会议所提出的决 心力度空前，值得市场高度关注。中共中央政治局会议提出的政策与之前房地产政策的指导思想是一致 的，主要内容也是一脉相承的，都是为了引导房地产市场稳定发展。 在聂梅生看来，今年上半年整个房地产市场的销售量、销售额、房地产指数、房企信心指数等运行都处 于比较乐观的区间，加上 ...

文：泽平宏观团队 任何资产都不会永远下跌，房地产也一样。 2021年以来，楼市跌了四五年，全国销售额比高点时跌去了一半，一二线城市房价跌了20%-30%，部分三四线甚至腰斩，那么，未来房价还会涨吗？哪些 信号出现可以入场？ 最近我提出了一个新观点，在市场上引发广泛讨论，楼市的二八现象：未来只有20%的核心城市房价会再创新高，剩下80%的城市将会长期阴跌。 我一直讲，房地产是周期之母，房地产稳则经济稳。如果未来政策从放松转向鼓励，发挥房地产拉动经济复苏的作用，那么，大家就一定要重视了。房价 涨，政策先行，政策是房价上涨的核心前提。 我研究了20多年房地产，出版了三本专著《房地产周期》《全球房地产》《房地产大趋势》，提出"房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融"的分析 框架。 根据全球几十个国家的房地产百年历史，总结出了房价涨跌的核心逻辑。 今天咱们就不绕弯子了，给大家拆解房价上涨的3大信号，看懂了可以帮你少走很多弯路。这3大信号都有历史案例和数据支撑，屡试不爽。 第一大信号，政策从"放松"全面转向"鼓励"，定位发生重大转变 房地产市场很大程度上是政策市，受政策影响非常大。货币政策、税费政策、土地政策都会影响市 ...

在供给侧，新政着力于盘活存量土地和资产。提出要加大存量土地"收调供"力度，鼓励通过依法协商收回、 协议置换或使用专项债券等方式回收闲置存量土地，并允许其在优化调整规划用途后重新供应。同时，促进 商服用地转型利用，允许已出让未开发的商服用地申请内部功能转换，并探索存量合法商办用房按现状临时 转换为保障性住房、医疗、养老、体育健身等公共服务或经营性用途，以适应城市发展新需求。 与此同时，河南省会郑州也在探索房地产管理新模式。郑州市住房保障局发布征求意见稿，拟加快建立城镇 房屋安全体检、安全管理资金和质量安全保险"三项制度"，旨在推进房屋全生命周期安全管理。新政拟设立 房屋安全管理资金专项账户，对房龄30年及以上的城镇住宅房屋实施首次体检，并鼓励老旧房屋购买房屋安 全保险，通过财政补贴等方式，构建起一套预防为主、防治结合的房屋安全保障体系。 分析人士指出，佛山的新政精准地回应了当前市场的多元化需求，尤其是向外籍人士和异地缴存职工释放了 积极信号，有助于吸引和留住人才，增强城市活力。而郑州探索的"房屋体检"制度，则标志着房地产管理正 从增量开发向存量运营深度转型，更加注重房屋的全生命周期价值和居住安全。两地的举措共同 ...

最近房地产市场的政策变化可以说是频繁得很，北京、上海这两座一线城市不断传出放宽限购的消息，再配合银行推直售房产，中介行业规范化这些步伐， 也让楼市那些不合理的限制逐步被清理出来，节奏明显加快啦。 这次的调整到底是为了稳住市场，还是为了帮着买房的人呢？面对这种局面，各方该怎么迎接挑战，做出应对的策略？ 这次楼市政策的变动，可不是简单的点对点调整，而是一套全方位的松绑组合拳，重中之重就是要清除那些不合理的限制，推进的节奏远远超出市场的预 料。 关于核心城市限购方面的变化，北京已经明确表示五环外的符合条件家庭购买房产不再限制套数，而上海则是在8月25日推出的沪六条政策中，直接放宽了 外环外的购房限制。 只要交满一年的社保，不管你是本地户口还是外地户口，无论是家庭还是单身，在外环外买房都不用担心套数限制。 而且呢，外环外买房的好处还不少，一旦在外面购置了房产，你在市区还能继续享受首套房的资格。 之所以要加快清理楼市那些不合理的政策，主要是因为眼下房地产市场遇到的问题已经不能忽视，特别是一线城市的结构性矛盾变得格外明显。 也就是说，京沪这两个限购的最后防线，最终都选择了在外围区域先行宽松，这和之前广州、深圳的政策调整不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in "bank direct supply housing" listings has become a significant trend in the real estate market, with banks selling properties at prices significantly lower than market rates, indicating a shift in the market dynamics and potential implications for the housing bubble [1][6]. Group 1: Bank's Role in Real Estate - Banks are increasingly acting as major players in the real estate market, with numerous banks listing thousands of properties for sale, effectively becoming the largest "second-hand housing intermediaries" in the country [1][6]. - The properties sold by banks have clear ownership, reducing transaction risks compared to auctioned properties, which often come with various complications [3]. - The motivation for banks to sell properties directly stems from the overwhelming number of foreclosed properties that are difficult to process through traditional auction methods, necessitating a faster asset clearance to reduce bad debts [3][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The trend of banks selling properties is expected to escalate, potentially spreading from smaller cities to larger urban areas, which could lead to a downward pressure on housing prices and a tightening of credit [6][9]. - The pricing strategies employed by banks are pragmatic, focusing on recovering debts rather than maximizing profits, which could lead to a significant reduction in local property market prices and a shift towards more realistic valuations [9][12]. - The phenomenon of banks offloading properties signals a deterioration in asset quality within the financial system, reflecting the adverse effects of speculative behavior in the real estate market [6][9]. Group 3: Impact on Speculation and Housing Demand - The influx of "direct supply housing" is pushing speculative investors out of the market, as many of the properties being sold were previously owned by investors who leveraged high debt during price surges [7][9]. - The financial attributes of real estate are diminishing, with a return to its fundamental purpose of providing housing, as banks prioritize quick sales to recover funds [9][12]. - The current market conditions are reshaping buyer expectations, moving away from the belief that prices will only rise, which aligns with the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy [9][12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing sale of properties by banks highlights the need for a stable demand foundation from genuine homebuyers to prevent further price declines and potential financial risks [12][13]. - The successful implementation of the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy requires the establishment of long-term mechanisms, such as a robust rental market and housing tax systems, which are still in development [12][13]. - The current market situation can be viewed as a necessary cleansing process, but the long-term health of the market will depend on its ability to stabilize and create a sustainable cycle [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation from "scale competition" to "quality competition," with Shanghai serving as a benchmark for the quality capabilities of real estate companies [2] Group 1: Company Issues - China Jinmao (00817.HK) is facing public scrutiny in the Shanghai market due to various issues, including quality defects in its high-end "Fu" series products and controversies surrounding sales data [2][3] - The Jinmao Puyuan project, a new high-end product line, has seen a significant drop in its initial sales figures, raising concerns about the authenticity of its marketing claims [4][7] - Reports indicate that the project has not sold out as previously claimed, with a notable number of units still available for sale two months after the initial launch [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a shift in buyer expectations, with increased awareness and demands for quality, amenities, and fulfillment of sales promises [3][19] - Jinmao's sales performance in Shanghai is lagging behind competitors, with a total sales figure of 14.517 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, ranking 13th among local developers [17][18] - The competitive landscape has shifted from "concept marketing" to "quality fulfillment," necessitating a reevaluation of Jinmao's strategies in land acquisition and project development [19][20] Group 3: Brand Perception - The brand's high-end positioning is being diluted due to issues with project quality and marketing practices, leading to a decline in consumer trust [16][19] - There are concerns that the rapid expansion of Jinmao's high-end product line may compromise the brand's core values and quality standards [16][20] - Experts suggest that Jinmao must focus on systemic reforms across various dimensions, including design, construction management, and customer service, to restore brand credibility [20]