丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 存量市场承压，对房企定价构成挑战，但不是影响阿尔法的最重要因素；老货减值压力也有望 边际缓和。房企阿尔法的真正制约在于景气缩圈，可投城市和优质地块的供应相对不足，尽管 参投房企数量较前几年减少，但竞争烈度依然不低，一是房企补充有效货值的难度加大，二是 溢价率偏高。打破景气进一步缩圈，唯有政策加码，尽管总量效应可能有限，但政策对好房子 和结构性市场的支撑效果相对可期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有明显提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策宽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of relaxed industrial policies. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core urban areas and quality properties. The current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for rebound [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand recognition and investment precision as key factors for success in the real estate sector. It suggests a "two-part" structured pricing approach for real estate companies, focusing on the proportion of old inventory and the strength of new land acquisitions [11]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.04% this week, with an excess return of +0.48% relative to the CSI 300. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 16.04%, with a relative excess return of -1.29% compared to the CSI 300 [8][17]. - The report notes mixed performance in the real estate sector this week, with development and property management companies showing varied results, while rental properties primarily declined [8]. Policy Updates - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported achievements in high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential sales and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing planned [9][19]. - Local regulations in cities like Chengdu and Shenzhen have been optimized to enhance housing standards and ensure safety in high-rise residential projects [9][19]. Sales Data - New home and second-hand home registrations in sample cities saw a significant year-on-year decline due to high base effects. The new home transaction area in 37 cities dropped by 20.5% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in 17 cities increased by 8.0% year-on-year [10][20]. - As of October 10, the new home transaction area in 37 cities for the month showed a year-on-year decrease of 40.0%, while second-hand homes saw a decline of 22.6% [10][20]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies structural opportunities in the real estate market, particularly in core urban areas benefiting from price relaxation. It highlights companies with low inventory, strong product quality, and stable cash flows as key investment targets. Recommended stocks include Jianfa International for its low old inventory and high new product contribution, and Greentown China for its significant new product contributions despite some old inventory drag [3][11].