国家统计局近日公布的2026年1月份70个大中城市房价数据显示，1月份一二三线城市房价环比降幅总体 收窄，市场呈现积极变化。 在笔者看来，1月份70个大中城市整体房价虽未完全摆脱下行态势，但需求端韧性持续显现，市场迎来 自我修复的良好开局。由此可见，当前房地产市场呈现结构性调整、筑底修复的核心特征，楼市流通端 积极信号增多，正稳步向企稳修复过渡。 以上海为例，根据上海房产交易中心官网"网上房地产"数据，1月份上海二手房（含商业）网签成交 22834套，已是连续第三个月成交量突破2.2万套，从同比数据来看，该成交量创下近5年同期新高。这 一表现是多重因素共同作用的结果。一方面，城市旧改力度加大，持续释放刚性与改善性需求；另一方 面，居民换购住房有关个人所得税退税政策延续至2027年底，政策效应持续释放。 最后，区域新房市场逐步复苏，成为稳定市场的关键抓手。从70个大中城市房价指数看，新房价格环比 止跌的城市数量持续扩容至12个。除上海、合肥外，长春、武汉、丹东、吉林等城市实现环比止跌；扬 州、南京房价连续两月持平或上涨。新一线及重点二线城市新房价格波动趋缓，武汉、青岛、济南等城 市市场活跃度明显提升，成为区域市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The sales decline is narrowing, with high transaction activity in major cities, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [6][13] - The decrease in land transaction area is impacting construction confidence, with completion areas still declining year-on-year [7][17] - Developer investment is decreasing due to insufficient sales recovery and new construction expectations [8][18] - There is a marginal improvement in funding for real estate developers, but the willingness of residents to leverage is low [21] Summary by Sections Sales Data and Market Activity - In January-February 2025, national commercial housing sales area was 107 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year (compared to a 12.9% decline in 2024), with residential sales area down 3.4% [6][13] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 1.03 trillion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year (compared to a 17.1% decline in 2024) [6][13] - The average sales price of commercial housing increased by 2.6% year-on-year, but decreased by 3.9% month-on-month [6][13] - High-level cities showed significant sales growth, with first-tier cities up 26.6% and second-tier cities up 9.8% [6][13] Construction and Completion Data - New housing starts in January-February 2025 were 66 million square meters, down 29.6% year-on-year (compared to a 23.0% decline in 2024) [7][17] - The completion area was 88 million square meters, down 15.6% year-on-year (compared to a 27.7% decline in 2024) [7][17] Developer Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment in January-February 2025 was 1.07 trillion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year (compared to a 10.6% decline in 2024) [8][18] - Funding for real estate developers was 1.56 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year (compared to a 17.0% decline in 2024) [21] - The decline in personal mortgage loans remains significant, indicating a potential increase in down payment ratios for home purchases [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with strong credit in cities with good fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [9][26] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, are also recommended [9][26] - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, indicating a promising outlook for real estate after-sales services [9][26]