Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends post "anti-involution" actions, and support for the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The onshore stock market and steel-related commodity prices are performing steadily [1] - Recent stabilization in China-U.S. relations and attractive asset valuations suggest more upward space for long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - It is expected that liquidity will remain ample until the end of the year, with the average seven-day repo rate and seven-day reverse repo rate (OMO) maintaining levels similar to recent months [1] - The net supply of government bonds is manageable for November-December, and the exchange rate is stable, indicating no strong reasons for the central bank to tighten liquidity in the coming months [1] - There has been a recent increase in market leverage, which may prompt the central bank to moderately tighten liquidity if levels remain high [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Expectations for monetary easing policies, such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, or larger liquidity injections through net purchases of government bonds, are anticipated to continue [1]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [7] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI [10] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [13] Group 2 - The outlook for Asian economies (excluding Japan) is mixed, with strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [17] - The Chinese internet sector will focus on AI strategies and competition in instant retail, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [20][21] - There is a growing trend in China to build a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with increased investment in AI infrastructure and diversified supply sources [24] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and support for the real estate market, with expectations of rising long-term interest rates [28] - Policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades are identified as core drivers for the future rise of A-shares, despite high valuations [31]

Core Viewpoint - The management of Vanke expresses strong confidence in the future, believing that the real estate market will return to a stable and healthy development track under policy guidance and support [4][10]. Group 1: Management Confidence and Strategy - Vanke's management acknowledges the difficulties faced in 2024 but emphasizes their commitment to addressing risks and challenges through enhanced management capabilities [4]. - The management team has successfully delivered over 26,000 housing units from January to May, indicating stable operational performance [4]. - Vanke's management has received recognition and support from local governments and partners, boosting their confidence in navigating the market [4]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Strategy - Vanke is confident in its ability to address debt challenges with support from various stakeholders and internal efforts [6]. - The company plans to enhance cash flow through accelerated sales, dynamic control of development pace, and balancing income and expenditure [7]. - Vanke aims to revitalize its existing resources and improve product quality, creating a positive cycle of resource activation, product upgrades, and sales [7]. Group 3: Business Development and Market Position - Vanke's operating service business has established a leading position in several sectors, achieving revenue of 28.7 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, a 7.8% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company will focus on enhancing customer loyalty, improving service efficiency, and establishing high-quality asset exit channels [8]. - Vanke plans to leverage its multi-business layout to promote synergy and develop diverse scenarios and composite business models [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Vanke believes that the real estate market will stabilize due to improved land supply structures and increased availability of high-quality residential land [10]. - The management sees a solid foundation for demand recovery, supported by policy measures and ongoing adjustments to restrictive measures [10]. - The trend towards diversified and quality new housing supply is expected to counterbalance the impact of the second-hand market [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][9][33] Core Viewpoints - Sales area and amount have shown a continued decline, with the sales area in May decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year and the sales amount decreasing by 6% [5][11] - The decline in funds available to real estate companies has continued to expand, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% from January to May 2025 [6][20] - Real estate development investment has shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% from January to May 2025 [7][21] - Land transaction area growth has slowed, but transaction amounts have maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 34% in transaction amounts from January to May 2025 [8][26] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 353 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][11] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 3.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [5][11] Funding Sources - The funds available to real estate companies saw a significant decline, with a single-month decrease of 10.1% in May 2025, marking the largest drop of the year [6][20] - Personal mortgage loans decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while domestic loans turned negative with a decrease of 1.7% [6][20] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 was down 10.7% year-on-year, with a single-month decrease of 12% in May [7][21] - New construction area decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, while the construction area showed a slight improvement [7][21] Land Transactions - The supply and transaction area of residential land in 100 major cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, while transaction amounts increased by 5% [8][26] - The average transaction premium rate in May was 7.4%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from April [8][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, as well as top intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions [9][33]