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第2周成交回落,期待未来政策对冲外部不利影响
Investment Rating - The industry rating remains "Overweight" [1][16]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a decline in real estate transactions due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to stabilize the market and promote new development models [1][16]. - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in 30 major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and 46.3% year-on-year [17]. - First-tier cities recorded a transaction volume of 320,000 square meters, down 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [17]. - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [17]. - Third-tier cities had 260,000 square meters in transactions, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [17]. - From January 1-8, 2026, cumulative transactions in 30 cities reached 1.12 million square meters, down 45.35% from December 2025 and 47% year-on-year [17]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 13.38 million square meters and transactions at 12.19 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [19]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, reflecting significant declines across all city tiers [17]. - Cumulative transactions from January 1-8, 2026, were 1.12 million square meters, indicating a substantial drop compared to the previous year [17]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities were 1.84 million square meters, down 9.75% from the previous week and 25.6% year-on-year [18]. - First-tier cities recorded 667,000 square meters in transactions, down 25.4% week-on-week and 33.1% year-on-year [18]. Land Transactions - Land supply in 100 cities was 13.38 million square meters, with transactions at 12.19 million square meters, indicating a continued slowdown in land transaction growth [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, down 31.9% year-on-year [19]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle for 35 cities was 26.17 months, up 5.64% from the previous month and 23.51% year-on-year [20].