春节假期，楼市交易不停。记者注意到，2026年春节期间，房企紧抓购房窗口期，多个楼盘"春节不打 烊"，还通过开展新春促销活动、推出特价房等方式积极营销。 北京市丰台区一处在售楼盘的销售顾问对记者表示，春节假期叠加促销政策，让年前已经看过房的客户 选择带家人回访，确定成交意向。 春节期间，北京多处新房楼盘推出形式多样的新春置业活动，包括"一口价"特价房，购房送家电大礼包 等。据广州市房地产行业协会统计，随着广州市"迎新春.购新房.过暖冬"系列商品房展销促销活动开 启，从春节前到3月31日，全市11区相关房地产企业陆续推出促销活动，近50家房地产企业超140个楼盘 推出迎新春优惠大礼包。 "今年春节期间，部分楼盘热度突出，促销策略到位、有家具家电或装修大礼包且价格适宜的刚需盘去 化较好。"广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析称，该类楼盘客户往往是在城市上班的年轻 人，基于收入积蓄考虑，一直在观望，过年期间父母带看房时，希望子女早日安居，在首付上、购房决 策上给予支持，加速了购房行动。 在李宇嘉看来，今年春节，返乡置业表现尚好。一方面是因为假期较长，回乡人员比去年多，同时很多 回乡人员计划在乡村、县域二次就业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating remains "Overweight" [1][16]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a decline in real estate transactions due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to stabilize the market and promote new development models [1][16]. - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in 30 major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and 46.3% year-on-year [17]. - First-tier cities recorded a transaction volume of 320,000 square meters, down 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [17]. - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [17]. - Third-tier cities had 260,000 square meters in transactions, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [17]. - From January 1-8, 2026, cumulative transactions in 30 cities reached 1.12 million square meters, down 45.35% from December 2025 and 47% year-on-year [17]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 13.38 million square meters and transactions at 12.19 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [19]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, reflecting significant declines across all city tiers [17]. - Cumulative transactions from January 1-8, 2026, were 1.12 million square meters, indicating a substantial drop compared to the previous year [17]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities were 1.84 million square meters, down 9.75% from the previous week and 25.6% year-on-year [18]. - First-tier cities recorded 667,000 square meters in transactions, down 25.4% week-on-week and 33.1% year-on-year [18]. Land Transactions - Land supply in 100 cities was 13.38 million square meters, with transactions at 12.19 million square meters, indicating a continued slowdown in land transaction growth [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, down 31.9% year-on-year [19]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle for 35 cities was 26.17 months, up 5.64% from the previous month and 23.51% year-on-year [20].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate market has passed a significant cyclical turning point since 2021, with sales volume and value dropping significantly from their peaks in 2021 to levels comparable to 2010 and 2016 by 2024 [11] - In the first five months of 2025, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while sales value fell by 3.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation in a generally low-volume market [11][12] - The supply of new homes continues to shrink, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in new residential supply across 69 cities in the first half of 2025, which is a key factor suppressing transaction recovery [13] Group 2 - The report notes that the sales performance of new homes is significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with the top 20 cities accounting for approximately 68% of sales value in the first half of 2025, reflecting a trend towards concentration in core urban areas [30] - The report indicates that the price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in May 2025, with second-hand home prices also experiencing a decline, suggesting that price stabilization is contingent on a recovery in transaction volumes [24][22] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes at historically high levels, and that the proportion of second-hand transactions is increasing, reaching 69% in the first five months of 2025 [43]

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is showing signs of recovery as the peak sales season "Golden March and Silver April" comes to an end, with significant increases in transaction volumes and market activity [1][3] Transaction Volume - In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by nearly 95% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, with Beijing's residential transaction area doubling month-on-month [3] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 32,662 units from March to April, representing a month-on-month increase of 26.52% and a year-on-year increase of 18.19% [3] - The transaction cycle for quality properties has significantly shortened, with some properties in core areas being sold within days of listing [3] Land Market Activity - The land market in Beijing is also heating up, with high premium transactions becoming more common. For instance, a plot in Haidian District sold for a record price of 102,300 yuan per square meter [6] - This trend indicates strong competition among developers for prime land, reflecting their optimism about the future of the Beijing real estate market [6] Price Trends - Overall housing prices in Beijing are stable, but there is a noticeable divergence in price trends across different regions and property types. The average price of second-hand homes in April was 44,454 yuan per square meter, with some core areas experiencing price increases [8] - New home prices showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.54%, with high-end projects in prime locations seeing significant price hikes, while some suburban projects are offering discounts to accelerate sales [8] Policy Support - Since September 30, 2024, Beijing has implemented a series of policies to optimize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and reducing down payment requirements, which have effectively lowered barriers for buyers [10] - The first mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has been reduced to 4.05%, and the minimum social security or tax payment period for non-local families has been shortened [10] Market Outlook - Despite the positive signs in the Beijing real estate market, there are still uncertainties regarding the macroeconomic environment and market inventory that could impact future developments [10][12] - Industry experts believe that the government will continue to support the real estate sector, and if key measures like interest rate cuts are implemented, market expectations may further improve [12] - The recovery may exhibit structural characteristics, with core areas and high-quality projects leading the market, while non-core areas may experience slower recovery [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xi'an's real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with new home prices declining for six consecutive months and second-hand home prices dropping for 18 months [2][10][12] - In contrast to Xi'an, Chengdu's real estate market is thriving, with new home transactions increasing by 19.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [2][4] - Xi'an's new home transaction volume has plummeted since its peak in 2018, with 2024's new home transaction area at 13.28 million square meters, only half of 2018's volume [15][22] Group 2 - Xi'an's economic growth has been sluggish, with a GDP growth rate of 4.6% in 2023, lagging behind the national average of 5.2% [18][20] - The city's industrial investment growth was negative at -5.8% in the first half of 2024, with industrial investment down by 13.3% [24][28] - Despite a population increase of 89,400 in 2024, the city's housing affordability remains a concern, with a price-to-income ratio of 28.1 times, significantly above the international warning line of 6-8 times [31][32] Group 3 - Xi'an's industrial strength is underwhelming despite its military and aerospace capabilities, with total industrial output value in 2023 estimated at 239.9 billion yuan, far below leading industrial cities [44][46] - The city has only three industries with over 100 billion yuan in output, with the automotive industry being the most prominent [46][48] - The lack of integration between military research and market applications is a critical issue for Xi'an's industrial development [66][68] Group 4 - The article raises the question of whether Xi'an's housing prices will continue to adjust downward, noting that while the city has a competitive population advantage, the overall real estate market sentiment remains negative [69][73] - Global economic uncertainties and trade tensions could further impact Xi'an's economy, although its reliance on exports is relatively low [75][76]