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房地产2025中期策略:结构化的时代,穿越周期的房企
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-09 12:22
Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate market has passed a significant cyclical turning point since 2021, with sales volume and value dropping significantly from their peaks in 2021 to levels comparable to 2010 and 2016 by 2024 [11] - In the first five months of 2025, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while sales value fell by 3.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation in a generally low-volume market [11][12] - The supply of new homes continues to shrink, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in new residential supply across 69 cities in the first half of 2025, which is a key factor suppressing transaction recovery [13] Group 2 - The report notes that the sales performance of new homes is significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with the top 20 cities accounting for approximately 68% of sales value in the first half of 2025, reflecting a trend towards concentration in core urban areas [30] - The report indicates that the price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in May 2025, with second-hand home prices also experiencing a decline, suggesting that price stabilization is contingent on a recovery in transaction volumes [24][22] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes at historically high levels, and that the proportion of second-hand transactions is increasing, reaching 69% in the first five months of 2025 [43]
北京楼市,真的热起来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 19:02
"金三银四" 的楼市销售旺季已至尾声,北京房地产市场正释放出一系列积极信号,显示出市场正在逐 渐升温。 作为核心区域成交热度的有力补充,近郊板块在 2025 年 "金三银四" 期间承接了大量外溢的购房需求。 石景山、大兴等区域在 "金三银四" 期间成交量均有所提升,相比 1 月、2 月提升约 20%。这些区域凭 借交通便捷、城市界面配套全等优势,吸引了不少在地铁沿线工作、无需考虑子女教育,只求通勤方便 的刚需购房者。 土地市场热度上升 北京土地市场热度也在同步上升,高溢价成交现象越发普遍。3 月 18 日成交的海淀区树村地块,拍出 单价 10.23 万元 / 平方米的价格,刷新北京 "地王" 纪录,显示出房企对核心优质地块的激烈争夺。这一 现象不仅反映了开发商对北京房地产市场前景的看好,也从侧面表明市场信心正在逐步恢复。 价格走势分化中上扬 成交量显著回升 Wind 数据显示,3 月份一线城市商品房成交面积环比增加近 95%,同比增加 18%,其中北京商品住宅 成交面积环比翻番。不仅新房市场火热,二手房市场同样表现强劲。据北京商报记者统计,2025 年 3 月及 4 月(截至 4 月 27 日)北京二手房网签 ...
西安房价,猛回头了!
城市财经· 2025-04-23 04:09
01 西安房价,猛回头 细数了一下,西安新房价格已经连跌半年,二手房则连跌了18个月。 这与同处西部的成都形势完全不同。成都新房从去年12月份止跌上涨以来,连续四个月上涨。二手房价格自去年10月份止跌上涨以来连续上涨了6个月。 而且,成都一季度商品房 成交87971套住宅,其中新房成交27871套,同比去年一季度上涨19.7%;二手房成交60100套,同比去年一季度上涨32.9%。 而西安: 第一,新房与二手房持续连跌。 国家统计局数据显示,3月份西安新房环比下跌0.2%,同比下跌2.3%;二手房环比下跌0.3%,同比下跌6.9%。 第二,当北上广深杭成一季度成交量躁动时,西安依旧低迷。 西安房管局披露, 2025年3月,西安市商品房签约面积仅为56.2万平方米,与去年同期相比减少了18.7%,与上月相比也下降了9.3%。 正在搞一个汽车号,对汽车、企业、科技感兴趣的读者,可以同步关注一下我的"飞箭财经"↓ 作者:余飞 二手房成交量好很多。 3月份,全市存量房(二手房)网签备案面积114.61万平方米;其中,住宅网签备案10470套,面积105.36万平方米。 这一数据比2025年2月份的6972套环比上涨了 ...