Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, particularly the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts, is a key variable affecting the U.S. consumer market and cross-border e-commerce environment in 2026 [1] - The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to potentially cut rates twice in 2026, with a total reduction of 50 to 75 basis points, but the decision-making environment is more complex and uncertain than before [2] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding priorities between combating inflation and preventing recession will continue, with ongoing debates between "hawkish" and "dovish" factions [2] Group 2 - Changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve could directly impact the tightness of monetary policy, with any new chair's policy inclination serving the core goals of economic stability and job security [3] - A potential positive area for cross-border e-commerce is real estate-related consumption, as interest rate cuts typically stimulate the real estate market, leading to increased demand for home renovations and furnishings [5] - Cross-border e-commerce sellers should remain vigilant about unexpected risks, such as potential delays or reductions in fiscal stimulus plans due to congressional negotiations, which could hinder consumer purchasing power recovery [5] - Political factors, such as the midterm elections, may lead to renewed hardline stances on China, introducing potential short-term fluctuations in trade policy [5] - Sellers are advised to closely monitor macro policies, enhance supply chain flexibility, and develop diversified market strategies to navigate the expected "cooling then heating" cycle and capture structural growth opportunities [5]