Summary of Hong Kong Property Chartbook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Property Market - **Key Segments**: Residential, Retail, Office, Mainland China Retail Key Points and Arguments Residential Market - **Home Price Correction**: The longest home price correction since 2003 has been observed in Hong Kong, indicating a significant downturn in the residential market [7][9][14] - **Rental Trends**: The rental level in Hong Kong is picking up, with the Centaline rental index showing an increase in overall rental rates [14][17] - **Transaction Volumes**: There has been a notable decline in residential transaction volumes, both in primary and secondary markets [21][22] - **Supply and Demand**: Oversupply in the residential market may not be resolved in the near term, with a significant number of unsold residential units [38][40][45] - **Future Supply**: The pipeline of primary launches in 2H25 indicates a total potential supply of 23,051 units, with various projects across different districts [54][56] Retail Market - **Sales Trends**: Hong Kong retail sales have shown a decline, particularly in discretionary spending categories, while staples have outperformed [102][107][111] - **Tourist Arrivals**: The number of tourist arrivals has a direct impact on retail sales, with fluctuations noted in the weekly net arrivals [113][116] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' operational performance shows varying results, with some landlords experiencing significant declines in sales [134] Office Market - **Rental and Vacancy Rates**: The office rental index continues to face pressure, with a high vacancy rate of 13.6% reported [137][141] - **Cap Rate Expansion**: Cap rate expansion is identified as a headwind for the office market, affecting overall capital values [142][143] - **Supply Forecasts**: New office supply is expected to hover around 1.7 million square feet per year, with a total of 8.3 million square feet projected from 2025 to 2029 [149][151] Mainland China Retail - **Sales Performance**: There has been a decline in momentum of retail sales in Mainland China, particularly in luxury goods [156][158] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' performance in Mainland China indicates mixed results, with some landlords outperforming the market while others face challenges [163] Additional Important Insights - **Population Trends**: The population in Hong Kong is stabilizing, which may influence housing demand and market dynamics [67] - **Affordability Issues**: The affordability of housing remains a concern, with monthly mortgage payments relative to median household income being a critical factor [84][86] - **Negative Equity Cases**: The number of negative equity cases in residential mortgages is low, suggesting a relatively stable mortgage environment [79][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Hong Kong Property Chartbook, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the residential, retail, and office markets in Hong Kong.