证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 08 日 1-9 月累计土地成交建面同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 6 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 6 日） | 新房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 6 日） | 二手房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 6 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | | 样本城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -29 PCT | 样本城市 | +4% | +收 | -10 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | 窄 | | | 一线城市 | +15% | +扩大 | +6 PCT | 一线城市 | +1% | +收 | -24 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | 窄 | ...

资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 前瞻及佐证指标： 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 二手房日均网签面积高于去年同期水平 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 9 月 25 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等；备注：考虑到今年和去年中秋节假期日期不一致 （去年为 9 月 15-17 日），若剔除中秋节假期影响，9 月以来新房日均成交面积同比减少 约 2%，二手房日均成交面积增加约 2% 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 9 月 25 日） | 新房（9 | 月 | 1 日-9 | 月 | 25 日） | 二手房（9 | 月 | 月 1 日-9 | 25 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 8 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 8 月 | | 样本城市 | +7% | | 转正 | +28 PCT | 样本城市 | +18% | 转 ...

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market shows that while most homeowners profit from selling properties, a growing number of loss-making sales are concentrated in specific high-density areas [1][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability of Sales - According to Cotality's "Pain and Gain Report," the median profit for homeowners selling properties in the June 2024 quarter reached AUD 315,000, an increase from AUD 305,000 in the previous quarter and significantly above the inflation-adjusted average of AUD 250,000 over the past decade [2]. - Approximately 94.8% of sellers achieved profits, slightly down from 95% in the March quarter [3]. Loss-Making Sales Concentration - Loss-making sales are primarily associated with apartments, with one-third of these sales concentrated in five local government areas (LGAs): Parramatta, Sydney, Melbourne, Stonnington, and Port Phillip [4]. - In Melbourne, 47% of property sales were loss-making, followed by Stonnington at 35.5% [6][9][10]. - The report indicates that the high percentage of loss-making sales is linked to a surge in apartment construction during the 2010s, which did not consider long-term livability [7]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The demand for properties in these high-density areas has faced several shocks, particularly after the tightening of macroprudential policies in 2017, leading to a sharp decline in investment demand [8]. - The supply of apartments has remained high due to the development boom in the previous decade, contributing to the losses observed [13][14]. - In contrast, medium-sized cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have shown strong performance in their apartment markets, with loss-making sales below 5% [17]. Regional Performance - Coastal areas have seen significant capital appreciation, driven by a recent trend towards lifestyle-oriented property purchases, with notable profits in regions like Kiama (AUD 758,000 median profit) and Byron Shire (AUD 718,000 median profit) [21]. - However, climate change risks, such as rising sea levels, may influence future buyer decisions, particularly in lower socio-economic areas that struggle to recover from disasters [19][20].

Asia Pacific Equity Research September 2025 Hong Kong Property Chartbook All the charts you need Hong Kong Property Karl ChanAC (852) 2800-8513 karl.chan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Venus Choi (852) 2800-8599 venus.choi@jpmorgan.com Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking ...

楼市迷雾：今夕何夕，安居何方？ 刚刚过去的周末，一场寻常的家庭聚会，却因"房子"二字，掀起了一场关于未来与现实的激烈辩论。新婚燕尔的小陈，面对着不断变幻的市场信号，忧心忡 忡："听说房价还会跌，要不咱们再等等？"而远在异国求学的博士老王，则通过屏幕分享了一篇振聋发聩的观点："孙宏斌说，现在不买房，五年后可能更 买不起。"这两种截然不同的声音，如同两极，拉扯着现场所有人的思绪。 作为一名在房市沉浮多年的"过来人"，我深切理解这份犹豫与纠结。房子，早已超越了简单的居住功能，它承载着一个家，更成为无数家庭最大的资产。买 与不买，何时下手，这背后牵涉的是错综复杂的经济算计和长远的生活规划。 回溯孙宏斌先生的洞见，这位融创中国的掌舵者，在2024年底的行业峰会上，曾掷地有声地提出："短期看供需，中期看金融，长期看人口。"他特别强调， 中国房地产市场已从过去的"增量时代"迈入"存量时代"，但这并不意味着房价会就此一路下滑。恰恰相反，优质的房产，或许将成为稀缺的珍宝。 那么，这"三看"背后究竟蕴藏着怎样的逻辑？五年之后，当我们伫立市场，究竟是拥有一片开阔的天地，还是只能望"房"兴叹？要解开这个谜团，我们需要 拨开重重迷雾， ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 experienced significant changes, with a notable increase in the number of cities reporting declines in new and second-hand residential prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - In August 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, an increase of 12 cities from July. For second-hand residential prices, 61 cities reported declines, up by 9 cities from the previous month [1]. - The total inventory of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 56,794 million square meters by the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The average de-stocking period has extended to 18.3 months, the longest in five years [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market due to an influx of new housing projects and a decline in demand driven by demographic changes. This has resulted in an oversupply situation in several cities [3][4]. - Promotional activities for new homes in 100 key cities surged by 143% year-on-year in August, with average discounts increasing to 7.2%, and some cities offering discounts exceeding 15% [4]. Group 3: Developer Financial Health - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 50 real estate companies reached 76.3% by June 2025, with 15 companies having a short-term debt coverage ratio below 1, indicating severe liquidity issues [5][7]. - In August alone, seven sizable real estate firms reported debt defaults, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage business models in a declining market [7]. Group 4: Buyer Sentiment - The buyer sentiment has shifted from panic buying to a more rational wait-and-see approach, with 67.3% of respondents in a housing demand survey choosing to wait, an increase of 21.5 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - This change in sentiment is expected to further suppress market demand, creating a negative feedback loop where developers are compelled to lower prices, which in turn discourages buyers from making purchases [8]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Developers are advised to reassess their strategies, moving away from high-leverage models to ensure cash flow stability during market downturns. They should also focus on market segmentation to cater to specific demands rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [9]. - For buyers, the current market presents both challenges and opportunities. First-time buyers may find favorable conditions, while those looking to upgrade should proceed cautiously. Investors are cautioned that the golden era of real estate investment may have passed, with lower expected returns [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, with expectations of declining new housing supply in July and a mixed performance across different city tiers [4][5][9]. Core Insights - In July, new housing supply is expected to decrease by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching a low point for the year, with significant reductions in supply from major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5][9]. - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement-oriented products, with 40% of new supply targeting first-time buyers, 45% for upgrades, and 15% for high-end products [11][12]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 29%, reflecting a 15 percentage point decrease month-on-month but a slight increase year-on-year [16][18]. Summary by Sections Supply Overview - In July, the total new housing supply across 28 key cities is estimated at 5.13 million square meters, marking a 32% decrease from the previous month and a 29% decline year-on-year [5][11]. - First-tier cities, particularly Beijing, are expected to maintain higher supply levels, while other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant reductions [7][9]. City Tier Analysis - Over 80% of second-tier cities are expected to see a decline in supply, with notable drops in cities like Qingdao and Changchun [9][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a 10% month-on-month decrease and a 37% year-on-year decline in supply [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure is increasingly focused on improvement needs, with nearly 70% of cities prioritizing main urban areas for new housing projects [11][13]. - Cities like Kunming and Wuxi have a high proportion of first-time buyer products, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu are focusing more on improvement-oriented offerings [12][13]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued low level of new home transactions, with potential for a slight recovery due to low year-on-year comparisons [16]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects face challenges [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has become complex and diverse, moving away from the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high" that characterized the market two decades ago. Current discussions should focus on demand rather than just pricing dynamics. Pricing Analysis - Real estate prices vary significantly, with major cities and provincial tourism cities experiencing high prices, while most third and fourth-tier cities have prices within a normal range. For instance, a price of 6,000 yuan per square meter is considered reasonable when adjusted for inflation [1]. - The perception of high prices in smaller cities is often due to a lack of consideration for inflation over the past 20 years, making current prices appear inflated [1]. - The current issue in the market is not about pricing but rather insufficient demand, as most rural residents have already purchased homes, leaving little concern for future price increases in these areas [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand in third and fourth-tier cities is expected to take years to recover, as current inventory levels need to be sufficiently reduced before any significant price changes occur. Until then, supply will continue to exceed demand, leading to stagnant prices [2]. - In major cities, while there are reports of price drops, these often only reflect a reduction in speculative bubbles rather than actual price declines. Properties priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter are largely considered speculative bubbles, while those below this threshold may represent true market prices [2]. - The economic downturn has led to a clearer understanding among consumers regarding housing affordability, with many unable to manage high monthly mortgage payments, thus disconnecting high-value properties from the average consumer's reality [2]. Property Sellability - Not all properties are sellable at reduced prices; older buildings without modern amenities, such as elevators, struggle to attract buyers. The current market shows a preference for properties that meet modern living standards, making older, less desirable units difficult to sell [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou's real estate market is closely linked to its land market performance, with significant growth in new residential transactions and a persistent supply-demand imbalance since June 2024 [5][19]. Group 1: Land Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hangzhou was the only city in China to exceed 100 billion yuan in land transfer fees, reaching 1198.8 billion yuan, significantly ahead of Beijing and Shanghai [3][10][11]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in Hangzhou was 31.8%, the highest among major cities, with some transactions seeing premiums as high as 115% [14][17]. - The land supply in Hangzhou is concentrated in core areas, with record-breaking land prices, such as 8.8 million yuan per square meter for a recent transaction [13][15]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Hangzhou's new residential transaction value increased by 12% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [5]. - The city has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance, with sales consistently outpacing new listings for 12 months [19]. - The second-hand housing market also showed robust performance, with monthly transaction volumes exceeding 6,000 units since early 2024, peaking at 12,400 units in March 2025 [20]. Group 3: Economic and Demographic Drivers - Hangzhou's population has been growing steadily, reaching 12.624 million in 2024, which is closely tied to the rapid development of high-tech industries [29]. - The city hosts 420 research and development centers and 44 unicorn companies, accounting for 80% of Zhejiang province's total [29]. - The influx of skilled talent, driven by the growth of high-tech enterprises, is a significant factor in the demand for housing, as many new residents seek to purchase homes upon relocation [30][31].