Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 experienced significant changes, with a notable increase in the number of cities reporting declines in new and second-hand residential prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - In August 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, an increase of 12 cities from July. For second-hand residential prices, 61 cities reported declines, up by 9 cities from the previous month [1]. - The total inventory of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 56,794 million square meters by the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The average de-stocking period has extended to 18.3 months, the longest in five years [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market due to an influx of new housing projects and a decline in demand driven by demographic changes. This has resulted in an oversupply situation in several cities [3][4]. - Promotional activities for new homes in 100 key cities surged by 143% year-on-year in August, with average discounts increasing to 7.2%, and some cities offering discounts exceeding 15% [4]. Group 3: Developer Financial Health - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 50 real estate companies reached 76.3% by June 2025, with 15 companies having a short-term debt coverage ratio below 1, indicating severe liquidity issues [5][7]. - In August alone, seven sizable real estate firms reported debt defaults, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage business models in a declining market [7]. Group 4: Buyer Sentiment - The buyer sentiment has shifted from panic buying to a more rational wait-and-see approach, with 67.3% of respondents in a housing demand survey choosing to wait, an increase of 21.5 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - This change in sentiment is expected to further suppress market demand, creating a negative feedback loop where developers are compelled to lower prices, which in turn discourages buyers from making purchases [8]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Developers are advised to reassess their strategies, moving away from high-leverage models to ensure cash flow stability during market downturns. They should also focus on market segmentation to cater to specific demands rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [9]. - For buyers, the current market presents both challenges and opportunities. First-time buyers may find favorable conditions, while those looking to upgrade should proceed cautiously. Investors are cautioned that the golden era of real estate investment may have passed, with lower expected returns [10].

# 惠官网 克而瑞观点 7 月预期新房供应转降，核心区配套产品俱佳项目还将保持高热 CRIC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 研报 7 月预期新房供应转降，核心区配 品俱佳项目还将保持高热 套流 2025 年 文/杨科伟 俞倩倩 7 月供应同环比齐降 3 成重回年内次低,一线城市中北京独撑大局,沪广深集体缩量。二线城 市中超八成城市环比下滑;三四线城市供应累计同比跌幅进一步扩大。 从供给结构来看,重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为 40%、45%和 15%,呈现出以改善为主, 刚需为辅的供应结构。近 7 成城市以主城为供应主力。 基于 7 月供应稳中有降,房企推盘积极性一般,故而新房成交绝对量或将延续低位波动,不过 基于去年基数较低,同比降幅仍有进一步收窄的可能,延续弱复苏走势。而从市场热度来看,或将 高位回落:据 CRIC 监测数据,28 个重点城市 2025年 7 月预期项目平均去化率 29%,环比下降 15pcts, 同比上升 1cts。 一、规模:7月28 城供应同同环比降 3 成重回年内次低,沪深蓉等缩量显著 7 月房企推盘积极性稳步回落,整体供给量为年内次低,土地对新房供给约束日益显著:据 CRIC ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has become complex and diverse, moving away from the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high" that characterized the market two decades ago. Current discussions should focus on demand rather than just pricing dynamics. Pricing Analysis - Real estate prices vary significantly, with major cities and provincial tourism cities experiencing high prices, while most third and fourth-tier cities have prices within a normal range. For instance, a price of 6,000 yuan per square meter is considered reasonable when adjusted for inflation [1]. - The perception of high prices in smaller cities is often due to a lack of consideration for inflation over the past 20 years, making current prices appear inflated [1]. - The current issue in the market is not about pricing but rather insufficient demand, as most rural residents have already purchased homes, leaving little concern for future price increases in these areas [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand in third and fourth-tier cities is expected to take years to recover, as current inventory levels need to be sufficiently reduced before any significant price changes occur. Until then, supply will continue to exceed demand, leading to stagnant prices [2]. - In major cities, while there are reports of price drops, these often only reflect a reduction in speculative bubbles rather than actual price declines. Properties priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter are largely considered speculative bubbles, while those below this threshold may represent true market prices [2]. - The economic downturn has led to a clearer understanding among consumers regarding housing affordability, with many unable to manage high monthly mortgage payments, thus disconnecting high-value properties from the average consumer's reality [2]. Property Sellability - Not all properties are sellable at reduced prices; older buildings without modern amenities, such as elevators, struggle to attract buyers. The current market shows a preference for properties that meet modern living standards, making older, less desirable units difficult to sell [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou's real estate market is closely linked to its land market performance, with significant growth in new residential transactions and a persistent supply-demand imbalance since June 2024 [5][19]. Group 1: Land Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hangzhou was the only city in China to exceed 100 billion yuan in land transfer fees, reaching 1198.8 billion yuan, significantly ahead of Beijing and Shanghai [3][10][11]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in Hangzhou was 31.8%, the highest among major cities, with some transactions seeing premiums as high as 115% [14][17]. - The land supply in Hangzhou is concentrated in core areas, with record-breaking land prices, such as 8.8 million yuan per square meter for a recent transaction [13][15]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Hangzhou's new residential transaction value increased by 12% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [5]. - The city has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance, with sales consistently outpacing new listings for 12 months [19]. - The second-hand housing market also showed robust performance, with monthly transaction volumes exceeding 6,000 units since early 2024, peaking at 12,400 units in March 2025 [20]. Group 3: Economic and Demographic Drivers - Hangzhou's population has been growing steadily, reaching 12.624 million in 2024, which is closely tied to the rapid development of high-tech industries [29]. - The city hosts 420 research and development centers and 44 unicorn companies, accounting for 80% of Zhejiang province's total [29]. - The influx of skilled talent, driven by the growth of high-tech enterprises, is a significant factor in the demand for housing, as many new residents seek to purchase homes upon relocation [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The perception of Shanghai's real estate market is often skewed towards luxury properties, but the majority of transactions involve ordinary buyers and affordable housing options [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The ratio of new to second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai has remained around 1:3 since 2017, indicating that second-hand homes dominate the market [2][4]. - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in Shanghai has consistently been over 3 million yuan, with the average price reaching 3.5256 million yuan in Q1 2025 [4][5]. - Second-hand homes priced below 3 million yuan account for over 60% of transactions, highlighting the prevalence of affordable housing in the market [7][8]. Group 2: Transaction Trends - From 2017 to present, second-hand homes priced below 500 million yuan have constituted over 80% of transactions, with those below 300 million yuan making up over 60% [7][8]. - The proportion of transactions for homes priced below 200 million yuan has increased, indicating a growing interest in lower-priced properties [7][8]. - The average transaction price for new homes has been above 6 million yuan, with a peak of 9.5617 million yuan in Q1 2025, but the volume of new home transactions remains low compared to second-hand homes [5][6]. Group 3: Buyer Preferences - Smaller homes (under 90 square meters) represent about 70% of second-hand home transactions, with those under 50 square meters making up approximately 18% [8][10]. - The trend of young buyers favoring "old and small" properties is rising, as these homes offer affordability and convenient locations [10][12]. - The rental yield for properties like "old and small" homes can exceed traditional savings rates, making them attractive investments for single individuals [15][16]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The "527 policy" introduced in May 2024 has positively influenced the market, leading to a significant increase in second-hand home transactions [16]. - Following the policy changes, the number of transactions surged from 17,099 in May 2024 to 23,906 in June 2024, indicating a responsive market [16].