2024年，中国房地产市场挥别"10万亿市场"，全年录得新建商品房销售额96750亿元。 根据国家统计局发布的2025年1—11月份全国房地产市场基本情况，在2025年前11个月，全国新建商品 房销售额75130亿元，同比下降11.1%。业内分析预测，2025年新建商品房销售额或将从去年的9万亿元 调整为8万亿元。 今年1—11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元，同比下降15.9%(按可比口径计算)；其中，住宅投资 60432亿元，下降15.0%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积656066万平方米，同比下降9.6%。其中，住宅 施工面积457551万平方米，下降10.0%。房屋新开工面积53457万平方米，下降20.5%。其中，住宅新开 工面积39189万平方米，下降19.9%。房屋竣工面积39454万平方米，下降18.0%。其中，住宅竣工面积 28105万平方米，下降20.1%。 在新建商品房销售和待售方面，1—11月份，新建商品房销售面积78702万平方米，同比下降7.8%；其 中住宅销售面积65818万平方米，下降8.1%。新建商品房销售额75130亿元，下降11.1%；其中住宅销售 额66008亿元， ...

在房地产开发企业到位资金方面，1—11月份，房地产开发企业到位资金85145亿元，同比下降11.9%。 其中，国内贷款13149亿元，下降2.5%；利用外资23亿元，下降24.6%；自筹资金30628亿元，下降 11.9%；定金及预收款25098亿元，下降15.2%；个人按揭贷款11786亿元，下降15.1%。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析指出，今年1-11月，全国新房待售面积同比增幅为 2.6%，不仅比上月明显下降了0.5个百分点，而且创下了2022年以来的新低，"这是一个好迹象。待售控 制住了，新房供求关系改善，最终会传导至二手房市场，这是止跌回稳的路径"。 李宇嘉认为，只有供需两端同步发力，房地产行业和市场才能渐进稳定下来。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 根据国家统计局今日（12月15日）发布的2025年1—11月份全国房地产市场基本情况，在2025年前11个 月，全国新建商品房销售额75130亿元，同比下降11.1%。业内分析预测，2025年新建商品房销售额或 将从去年的9万亿元调整为8万亿元。 今年1—11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元，同比下降15.9%（按可比口径计算）；其中， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 挂牌价调涨占比：截至 2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试依 然是资本市场关注的要点；（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是推 动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供给 品质优化以及购房者画像显著分化推动下，新房市场供需环境较二手房更早出 现改善的特征；（三）相较于"博弈"基本面和政策，围绕合理估值区间做投 资或更可取。（1）从考虑潜在减值压力调整后的 PB 估值水平来看，当前板块 调整后 PB 约 1.2 倍，而更"纯粹"的销售前 5 重点房企调整后 PB 平均约 0.7 倍；（2）房地产板块在 24 年 9-10 月反弹后一度回调过半，近期板块有所反 弹但距离上一轮反弹高点仍有约 15%空间，而部分股票价格仍在相对低位，个 别标的当前股价距离前期反弹高点空间超 50%；（四）关注全国性和区域性房 企风险溢 ...

——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 27 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 | 月 | 27 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | （39 城） | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -21% | | -收窄 | +6 PCT | | 城） （4 | | | | 城） （2 | | | | | | 二线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -9 PCT ...

Core Insights - The overall market in Q3 2025 shows weak transaction volume, continued price declines, and rising inventory levels, indicating ongoing de-stocking pressures [1] - Only 19% of the 27 first- and second-tier cities exhibit signs of market stabilization [1] Transaction Volume and Price Trends - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is stronger than that of new homes, with cities like Chengdu and Shanghai showing significant year-on-year recovery [1] - New home prices have seen a widening decline in Q3 2025, following a period of narrowing declines since October 2024, while second-hand home prices also reflect this trend [2] - The overall market recovery remains weak, with first-tier cities showing slight improvement while second-tier cities continue to experience negative growth in new home transactions [2] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory cycles are on the rise, with first-tier cities' clearing cycles increasing to 19.9-21.1 months, up from 16-17 months at the end of 2024 [3] - Second-tier cities face even higher inventory pressures, with clearing cycles reaching a three-year high of 24.8 months in September 2025, attributed to weak new home sales and structural issues like declining population attraction and excess land supply [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 has seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a decrease of 9% compared to the previous year, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [23][30]. - The new housing market is expected to show signs of improvement earlier than the second-hand housing market due to supply contraction expectations and quality optimization [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread as key indicators for total demand in the housing market [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The new housing contract area has seen a year-on-year decline of 32%, which has widened by 29 percentage points compared to September [3]. - The average daily contract area for new homes is below the levels seen in the past four years [21]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing contract area has increased by 4% year-on-year, but this growth has narrowed by 10 percentage points compared to September [3]. - The average daily contract area for second-hand homes is also below the levels seen in the past four years [21]. Land Acquisition - The report indicates that the cumulative land transaction area has decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [23][30]. - The land premium rate has decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [29]. Market Liquidity - The liquidity outlook indicates a tightening trend at the macro level, with a narrowing of the year-on-year easing [4][50]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased from 5.8% to 5.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.6% [51]. Inventory and Sales - The report notes that the unsold inventory and the cycle for unsold new launches have increased compared to July, indicating a need for monitoring [33][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand homes has increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, while the average daily signed area for new homes has decreased by about 2% when adjusted for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effect [3][4]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread narrowing is a key observation for the total demand for new and second-hand homes to stabilize [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investments, suggesting that the current PB valuation level for the sector is around 1.2 times, while the average PB for the top five sales-focused real estate companies is approximately 0.7 times [5]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The new home signed area has shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 indicating a positive trend compared to the same period in previous years [9][13]. - The overall signed area for new homes in sample cities has also exceeded levels from the past four years [13]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home signed area has similarly shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 reflecting a positive trend [15][19]. - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased, indicating a growing interest in the market [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to August 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 10%, while the average transaction price has increased by 23% [22]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a potential cooling in the market [50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the cycle for unsold new constructions have increased compared to July, suggesting a tightening market [32][35]. - The liquidity outlook shows a tightening trend at the macro level, with a reduction in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices [49][50].

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market shows that while most homeowners profit from selling properties, a growing number of loss-making sales are concentrated in specific high-density areas [1][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability of Sales - According to Cotality's "Pain and Gain Report," the median profit for homeowners selling properties in the June 2024 quarter reached AUD 315,000, an increase from AUD 305,000 in the previous quarter and significantly above the inflation-adjusted average of AUD 250,000 over the past decade [2]. - Approximately 94.8% of sellers achieved profits, slightly down from 95% in the March quarter [3]. Loss-Making Sales Concentration - Loss-making sales are primarily associated with apartments, with one-third of these sales concentrated in five local government areas (LGAs): Parramatta, Sydney, Melbourne, Stonnington, and Port Phillip [4]. - In Melbourne, 47% of property sales were loss-making, followed by Stonnington at 35.5% [6][9][10]. - The report indicates that the high percentage of loss-making sales is linked to a surge in apartment construction during the 2010s, which did not consider long-term livability [7]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The demand for properties in these high-density areas has faced several shocks, particularly after the tightening of macroprudential policies in 2017, leading to a sharp decline in investment demand [8]. - The supply of apartments has remained high due to the development boom in the previous decade, contributing to the losses observed [13][14]. - In contrast, medium-sized cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have shown strong performance in their apartment markets, with loss-making sales below 5% [17]. Regional Performance - Coastal areas have seen significant capital appreciation, driven by a recent trend towards lifestyle-oriented property purchases, with notable profits in regions like Kiama (AUD 758,000 median profit) and Byron Shire (AUD 718,000 median profit) [21]. - However, climate change risks, such as rising sea levels, may influence future buyer decisions, particularly in lower socio-economic areas that struggle to recover from disasters [19][20].

Summary of Hong Kong Property Chartbook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Property Market - **Key Segments**: Residential, Retail, Office, Mainland China Retail Key Points and Arguments Residential Market - **Home Price Correction**: The longest home price correction since 2003 has been observed in Hong Kong, indicating a significant downturn in the residential market [7][9][14] - **Rental Trends**: The rental level in Hong Kong is picking up, with the Centaline rental index showing an increase in overall rental rates [14][17] - **Transaction Volumes**: There has been a notable decline in residential transaction volumes, both in primary and secondary markets [21][22] - **Supply and Demand**: Oversupply in the residential market may not be resolved in the near term, with a significant number of unsold residential units [38][40][45] - **Future Supply**: The pipeline of primary launches in 2H25 indicates a total potential supply of 23,051 units, with various projects across different districts [54][56] Retail Market - **Sales Trends**: Hong Kong retail sales have shown a decline, particularly in discretionary spending categories, while staples have outperformed [102][107][111] - **Tourist Arrivals**: The number of tourist arrivals has a direct impact on retail sales, with fluctuations noted in the weekly net arrivals [113][116] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' operational performance shows varying results, with some landlords experiencing significant declines in sales [134] Office Market - **Rental and Vacancy Rates**: The office rental index continues to face pressure, with a high vacancy rate of 13.6% reported [137][141] - **Cap Rate Expansion**: Cap rate expansion is identified as a headwind for the office market, affecting overall capital values [142][143] - **Supply Forecasts**: New office supply is expected to hover around 1.7 million square feet per year, with a total of 8.3 million square feet projected from 2025 to 2029 [149][151] Mainland China Retail - **Sales Performance**: There has been a decline in momentum of retail sales in Mainland China, particularly in luxury goods [156][158] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' performance in Mainland China indicates mixed results, with some landlords outperforming the market while others face challenges [163] Additional Important Insights - **Population Trends**: The population in Hong Kong is stabilizing, which may influence housing demand and market dynamics [67] - **Affordability Issues**: The affordability of housing remains a concern, with monthly mortgage payments relative to median household income being a critical factor [84][86] - **Negative Equity Cases**: The number of negative equity cases in residential mortgages is low, suggesting a relatively stable mortgage environment [79][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Hong Kong Property Chartbook, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the residential, retail, and office markets in Hong Kong.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, highlighting the contrasting opinions on whether to buy property now or wait for potential price drops. It emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial policies, and demographic changes [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is characterized by significant disparities across different city tiers. As of May 2025, the inventory of new residential properties in 300 key cities reached approximately 420 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of about 20 months. First-tier cities have a healthier de-stocking cycle of 10 months, while third and fourth-tier cities exceed 25 months [4]. - In first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, the market is approaching a balance, with some areas experiencing a shortage of available properties. This contrasts sharply with third-tier cities, where new developments remain unsold for extended periods [4]. Group 2: Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, the government has implemented various financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates. As of July 2025, the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has dropped to around 3.8%, the lowest in nearly a decade [5]. - While these policies benefit homebuyers, their sustainability is uncertain, and the growth rate of personal housing loans has shown signs of recovery, indicating potential adjustments in future policies [5]. Group 3: Demographic Trends - China's population has experienced a decline for the first time since 1961, with an estimated decrease of about 800,000 in 2025. The aging population is also a significant factor, with projections indicating that 21% of the population will be 60 years or older by 2025 [6]. - Despite the overall population decline, urbanization continues, with younger populations migrating to first and second-tier cities, maintaining strong housing demand in these areas. The trend of smaller household sizes is also expected to mitigate some negative impacts of population decline on housing demand [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The ability to choose properties freely in five years will largely depend on the type of property and the city chosen. High-quality properties in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, especially those in desirable locations, are likely to maintain or even increase in value due to tightening supply [8]. - Conversely, properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face downward price pressure due to ongoing population outflows and excess inventory. The quality of properties will also play a crucial role in their future value, with energy-efficient and well-managed properties being more desirable [8]. Group 5: Decision-Making Strategies - Homebuyers are advised to focus on the fundamental purpose of housing, which is to provide shelter. Those with stable jobs and long-term plans in a city should consider purchasing if their rent approaches or exceeds potential mortgage payments [9]. - Financial prudence is essential, with recommendations to keep the mortgage-to-income ratio below 30% to avoid financial strain. Buyers should also tailor their purchasing strategies based on local market conditions, opting for smaller properties in high-demand areas initially, with plans to upgrade later [10]. - Attention should be given to property value retention factors such as property management quality, community amenities, and transportation accessibility. Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is also recommended to mitigate risks [11].