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4月地产季节性回落
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-20 06:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector experienced a significant seasonal decline in sales in April, with a month-on-month drop of approximately 40% in both sales area and sales amount compared to March [2] - Construction activities are still awaiting improvement, with new construction area down by 23.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continued supply contraction in the industry [3] - Investment pressure remains, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a slowdown in construction activities and overall economic drag from the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to April 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 280 million square meters (YoY -2.8%), and the sales amount was 2.7 trillion yuan (YoY -3.2%) [2] - In April alone, the sales area was 60 million square meters (YoY -2.1%), and the sales amount was 60 billion yuan (YoY -6.7%) [2] Construction Activity - New construction area from January to April 2025 was 180 million square meters (YoY -23.8%), with completion area at 160 million square meters (YoY -16.9%) [3] - The construction area remained low, with a significant year-on-year decline in both new starts and completions in April [3] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed in the first four months of 2025 was 2.8 trillion yuan (YoY -10.3%), with residential investment at 2.1 trillion yuan (YoY -9.6%) [4] - The investment decline is attributed to reduced construction activity and a lagging real estate investment growth compared to fixed asset investment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that may reverse their current difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [5]