投资地域多元化

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穆迪降级再掀“卖出美国”论调 新兴市场有望扛起牛市大旗
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 07:02
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a renewed interest in emerging market stocks as a result of the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, with emerging markets being seen as the next bull market [1][2] - Bank of America has identified emerging markets as the most attractive investment option due to factors such as a weakening dollar, peak US Treasury yields, and a recovering Chinese economy [1][3] - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on emerging market stocks from "neutral" to "overweight," citing easing US-China trade tensions and significant valuation advantages [1][3] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen by 8.55% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 Index has only increased by 1% during the same period, indicating a strong performance of emerging markets compared to US equities [1] - Following the announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration, a divergence in performance between emerging markets and US markets became evident, with the S&P 500 dropping over 5% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 7% [2] - Current allocations of US investors to emerging markets are only between 3%-5%, significantly lower than the MSCI Global Index's weight of 10.5%, suggesting room for growth in emerging market investments [3] Group 3 - Emerging markets are expected to outperform due to a combination of factors including a potential weakening dollar, historically low investor allocations, and high growth potential under discounted valuations [3][4] - India is highlighted as having the best long-term growth prospects among emerging markets, with Argentina also noted for its low valuations [3] - The current market environment is characterized by deep discount valuations and ongoing structural reforms, particularly in India, which may contribute to a more sustainable rally in emerging markets compared to previous short-lived surges [4]