一、亚洲新兴市场增长动力发生转变 回顾2025年，地缘政治与关税相关风险成为亚洲债券市场的主要驱动因素，并对新兴市场的经济基本面 与发展前景产生影响。尽管该地区经济增长依然强劲，但这在一定程度上得益于出口商的"提前出货"行 为。考虑到全球需求疲软以及前期高基数的影响，我们预计2026年外部拉动力的增长势头可能难以持 续。 面对外部动力减弱，亚洲各经济体正采取不同应对策略。例如，印尼和泰国通过向低收入家庭增发津贴 来提振本地消费；印度实施了新的商品及服务税改革，以刺激家庭支出；中国则继续推进产业转型升 级，致力于提升其在全球价值链中的地位。 在亚洲当地货币债券市场方面，我们更青睐采取审慎财政政策的经济体。预计货币政策将保持宽松，亚 洲各国政府债券收益率具有明显的下行潜力。然而，激进的财政扩张可能对债券供应造成压力，促使市 场参与者转向其他利差更具吸引力、资本增值潜力更大的新兴市场。 亚洲地区的通胀水平持续温和下行，超出市场预期，这为各国央行提供了更大的货币政策宽松空间。与 许多其他地区不同，亚洲新兴市场并未出现疫情后的通胀大幅攀升。尽管各国财政政策存在差异，但低 通胀环境以及央行倾向于宽松的政策立场，在亚洲新兴 ...

作者｜洋紫 编辑｜李小天 人类历史上最伟大的一次风险投资是什么？ 1620年，一群为信仰与自治而出走的欧洲移民，乘坐五月花号，从英国南安普顿出发横渡大西洋，船上共有100名乘客，用众筹的方式募集了1200英镑， 在陌生大陆上以一纸契约开启了后来美国政治文化的雏形。 这就是ATM Capital创始人屈田眼中，成功风险投资的最经典案例。从1200英镑出发，到今天GDP30万亿美元的全球第一大经济体，刨除通货膨胀的影响 外，"这也说明了出海确实能创造巨大的价值。"屈田向霞光社表示。 2023年，ATM Capital的名字出现在极兔机构股东名单中，作为极兔第一家外部投资机构，屈田以ATM创始人的身份，迈进了公众视野中。 21年前，屈田加入雅虎中国，负责搜索产品运营。随后，阿里巴巴收购雅虎中国，屈田作为第二名员工成为阿里巴巴战投部的一员。2017年，ATM创 立，极兔是屈田成立ATM后，投出的第一个项目。作为第一家专注投资东南亚市场的中国背景风险投资基金，到2023年极兔上市，仅6年的时间——这似 乎是一家年轻基金，伴随新兴市场快速成长的"捕捉未来"故事。 时间转到2025，当更多中国企业开始将视角着眼于寻找新兴市 ...

第四财经 年终盘点 2026 全球 投资指南 华尔街主要金融机构预 测标普500指数点位 ● 年初以来标普500指数收盘价走势 截至12月29日收盘 6905.740 年初以来,标普500指数累计上涨17_41% 982 77 多数机构预测2025年标普500指数有望继续上涨。 8100 - ○ 8111 奥本海默 OpensHEIME ○8000 德意志银行 Deutsche Bank @ 7900 座根十四到 | 富国锦行 | 两阶段上涨: 7700 7500 7000 6905.74 [2025/12/29 收盘价] 科技七巨头:分化的神坛 9 年初以来科技七巨头走势数据(截至2025/12/29 | 股票名称 | | 年初以来涨幅 | 收盘价(美元/股) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C | 谷歌 | 66.29% | 313.56 | | 英伟达 | | 40.20% | 188.22 | | 微软 | | 16.42% | 487.1 | | 特斯拉 | | 13.82% | 459.64 | | 8 | meta | 12.85% | 658.69 | | 苹果 | ...

【头条要闻】 商务部回应美将对中国半导体加征301关税：坚决反对 12月25日下午，商务部举行例行记者会。有媒体提问称，美东时间12月23日，美国贸易代表办公室发布 针对中国半导体政策301调查结果，宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税，目前税率为0%，18个月 后即2027年的6月再提高税率，请问商务部对此有何评论？ 对此，商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，中方注意到有关情况，已通过中美经贸磋商机制向美方提出严正 交涉。中方不认同美方301调查的所谓结论，坚决反对美对华半导体产品加征301关税。 商务部回应是否会放松对美稀土磁体出口的限制 美国五角大楼最新报告挑拨中印关系，我外交部回应 今日俄罗斯记者提问，中印关系最新进展此前曾在美国国会引发紧张反应，如天津上合峰会期间两国领 导人的合影等等。美国五角大楼最新报告又称，中国可能试图利用中印在实际控制线地区紧张局势的缓 和，以阻止美印关系进一步深化。请问中方认为，美国通过此类指控希望达成何种目的？ 林剑表示，美方这份报告歪曲中国国防政策，挑拨中国同其他国家关系，为维持自身的军事霸权寻找借 口，中方对此坚决反对。 商务部回应TikTok将在美成立合资公司 商务部25 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording a seven-day increase, supported by sectors such as commercial aerospace, large aircraft, satellite navigation, and satellite internet [1][2] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has shown a cumulative increase of nearly 30% this year, outperforming major US stock indices, indicating a favorable environment for emerging market assets [1][2] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Superjet Co. and Guanglian Aviation reaching the 20% limit up, reflecting strong market interest and policy support [2] Group 2 - Emerging market fixed income assets have also performed well, with the issuance of hard currency bonds by emerging market governments growing from approximately $700 billion to $1.4 trillion over the past decade [3] - UBS forecasts that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, emerging market assets will present a favorable allocation opportunity [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China anticipates continued net inflows into the Chinese stock market, highlighting significant opportunities in high-quality companies and sectors aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan [4]

【环球网财经综合报道】印度股市成为当下热议焦点，随着共同基金规模同步扩容，截至11月30日，印度基金管理资 产规模已达80.8万亿卢比，较五年前大幅增长。与此同时，印度股市一只股票RRP Semiconductor的股价在最近20个月 里暴涨超过55000%。 富兰克林证券投顾表示，印度拥有强大的人才基础与创新能力，过去十年政府推动大量改革，包括统一税制并进行优 化、推动科技应用、吸引外资等，这些都大幅提升印度长期经济潜力。 消息面上，印度股市监管机构Sebi正与印度储备银行（RBI）及保险监管机构合作，以允许银行和保险公司参与大宗 商品衍生品市场。Sebi还成立工作组，旨在提出深化农产品衍生品生态系统的措施，并将很快公布非农产品衍生品领 域审查工作组。 报道还提到，2025年印度股市相较亚太其他新兴市场表现，是过去30年来最落后的一年，但目前下档风险有限，补涨 机会浮现。展望2026年，印度股市的投资价值值得期待，建议投资人可采取定期定额方式布局印度基金。 联合新闻网近日发文称，随著全球资产重新分配，以及市场对利率、汇率等宏观变数的关注，印度股市短线虽持续有 波动，但在汇率改善、基本面强劲及落后板块补涨等利 ...

AllianceBernstein LP新兴市场股票主管萨米·铃木(Sammy Suzuki)表示："2025年是一个拐点。一年前的问题还是新兴市场是否具备投资价值，但现在我们已 经不再被问到这个问题了。" 更多上行空间 智通财经APP获悉，新兴市场有望在2026年伊始成为华尔街的宠儿，资产管理机构正押注一轮持续多年的资金流入周期已经启动。今年涌入该领域的资本规 模——覆盖所有新兴市场证券，创下自2009年以来的最佳表现——表明，越来越多的投资者正在重新配置这一此前多年表现乏力、长期不受青睐的资产类 别。自2017年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债之间的利差收窄至11年来最低水平，而套利交易策略——通常是借入 低收益资产、买入高收益资产——也取得了自2009年以来的最佳回报。 美国银行最近在伦敦举行的投资会议上充分展示了市场对该领域的热情。该行邀请了300位投资者并举行了170场会议，发现几乎没有人对新兴市场持悲观态 度。美银新兴市场固定收益部门主管大卫·豪纳(David Hauner)的结论是："新兴市场的悲观论者已经绝迹了。" 全球资本流动可能正在发生更根本性的转变。投资组 ...

智通财经APP获悉，全球资产管理及领先的退休投资管理公司普徕仕(T. Rowe Price)今日发布2026 年环球金融市场展望，认为新兴市场投资前景向好。若美联储委任取态较"鸽派"的新任主席，或将令美 国中期利率下调及美元转弱。从历史经验来看，这种环境有利新兴市场表现，因为当地央行将拥有更大 空间放宽货币政策以支持经济增长。此外，普徕仕股票部投资专家伍心钿提到，中国市场仍存在具吸引 力的投资机会。 普徕仕亚太区环球投资方案主管Thomas Poullaouec表示："在环球财政及货币政策的双重支持下， 2026年经济增长环境较2025年或将更稳定。但通胀持续高企、就业市场疲弱，以及 AI 基建支出的可持 续性，仍是影响前景的主要风险。" Poullaouec 续指："我们的多元资产投资团队对未来6-18个月的市场持平衡观点。在股票及固定收益 的资产配置上保持中性。股票方面，以未来盈利增长及估值角度来看，新兴市场股票提供最佳机遇。固 定收益方面，只要经济保持稳健增长，从存续期及总回报角度来看，信贷市场仍然具吸引力。" 普徕仕多元资产部门资本市场策略师 Tim Murray 指出，美国经济正呈现两极分化：一边厢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The growth prospects in the AI sector remain sustainable for several years, but investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios [1] Group 1: Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - The company has recently rotated out of certain technology (XLK) and communication services (XLC) stocks, reallocating funds to more reasonably valued sectors while still capturing technology trends [1] - The communication services sector has been reduced due to perceived overvaluation, with funds shifted to the utilities sector (XLU), which has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 20 times compared to over 30 times for information technology (XLK) and communication services (XLC) [1] - This tactical adjustment is not a complete abandonment of the technology theme, as emerging markets are highlighted as attractive alternatives for technology investments [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets and Defensive Sectors - Emerging markets, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, are suggested as viable options for technology investment, focusing on semiconductor and hardware manufacturers to mitigate short-term concentration risks [1] - A diversified approach is recommended, maintaining positions in the U.S. market while allocating a small percentage to a broad emerging market portfolio [1] - There is a noted shift in the market towards broader sector rotation, with investors moving from technology to defensive sectors [1] Group 3: Financial Sector Appeal - Financial stocks (XLF) are particularly attractive in the current interest rate environment, providing a good option for diversifying portfolios away from technology [2] - The investment rationale is based on expectations of declining short-term rates while long-term yields remain stable or slightly increase, leading to lower financing costs for financial institutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have shown strong performance in both stocks and bonds as of 2025, with emerging market stocks recording their best performance in nearly seven years, indicating heightened investor interest and enthusiasm [1]. Group 1: Valuation and Investment Logic - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio difference indicates that emerging market stocks are relatively undervalued compared to developed markets, with the current P/E ratio difference exceeding its 20-year historical average by nearly two standard deviations, suggesting an attractive entry point despite recent strong performance [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Over the past three years, the net inflow of funds into emerging market equity funds has lagged behind that of U.S. funds relative to their asset management scale. However, the strong performance of emerging market stocks in 2025, partly aided by a weaker dollar, shows signs of a potential reversal, as emerging market funds are beginning to attract more capital, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [4][6]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Emerging market central banks maintain significantly higher real interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, indicating greater monetary policy flexibility. This suggests that emerging markets have more room to implement interest rate cuts, which could structurally benefit emerging market assets, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid labor market weaknesses and rising inflation risks [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to reassess their allocations to avoid missing potential opportunities in emerging markets, which have been structurally underweighted due to poor performance in recent years [7]. - Selective stock picking is advised, as there is significant differentiation among countries due to political, social, and industrial factors. Potential winners include regions involved in the AI supply chain and Central European countries benefiting from automotive trends [7]. - Active management strategies are recommended over passive management, as active managers may better identify attractive companies in emerging markets and avoid those with risks outweighing potential returns [7]. Group 5: Conclusion - The attractive relative valuation of emerging markets provides an excellent entry point for investors. The rebound in capital inflows into emerging market stocks confirms a recovery in investor sentiment, and the higher real interest rates compared to developed markets offer greater flexibility for structural policy adjustments, making emerging markets worthy of increased investor attention [8].