·花旗：新兴市场有望成为今年最受青睐的交易市场 【机构分析】 ·花旗集团分析师表示，全球前几大资产管理公司（合计管理着超过20万亿美元的资产）正在买入新兴 市场的股票、本币债券和信贷产品，押注全球经济增长和美元走软将有利于这些市场。尽管本周全球市 场因担忧人工智能可能颠覆经济的诸多领域而震荡，但新兴市场资产依然表现良好。MSCI新兴市场指 数周四一度上涨0.7%。相关主题ETF的交易量也大幅飙升。这一转变也反映出发达市场前景更加不明 朗。由于政策不确定性和财政担忧令市场情绪承压，美国、日本和德国国债收益率飙升。 ·澳新银行在最新报告中强化了对黄金的看涨立场。该行指出：1. 美联储预计将于第二季度（可能6月） 重启降息，并于第四季度再次降息，这一路径将为黄金提供支撑。2. 美伊紧张局势再度升级，将重振黄 金的避险需求。3. 经济风险持续存在，市场尚未完全消化美国关税上调的影响；而对AI驱动股市上涨 的担忧，正加剧金融风险。4. 在不确定性背景下，黄金仍是抵御市场风险的极具吸引力的对冲工具。5. 经历最新一轮获利了结后，投资者持仓已不再拥挤，为建立新的多头头寸留下了充足空间。 ·澳新银行：黄金前景依然乐观目前仍有 ...

新兴市场股票正逐渐成为今年以来全球股票市场最热门的投资与交易主题之一，并且全球最顶级基金经理们愈发偏好广义上的新兴市场资 产——包含新兴市场股票、债券以及主权货币类资产。花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，来自全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构的基金经 理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。 华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的分析师们在审阅投资型基金们已公开发布的展望后表示，全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构—— 累计管理着逾20万亿美元资产，正在大举买入新兴市场股票标的/新兴市场ETF、本币债券甚至某些信用类资产，押注强劲的全球经济增长 态势、受益于全球AI基建狂潮的算力链高度集中和持续走弱的美元将利好新兴市场资产。 花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，基金经理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。新兴市 场债券则是他们最偏好的久期资产押注，与基金经理们对于美国国债和核心欧洲主权债券的空头仓位形成鲜明对比。花旗表示，在信用市 场中，新兴市场公司债务获得最大幅度的超配，而美国投资级债券仍是热门的低配或者减持对象。 即使本周全球市场 ...

2月26日，花旗分析师在评估各基金发布的展望报告后表示，全球大型资产管理公司（管理超过20万亿 美元的资产）正在买入新兴市场股票、本币债券和信贷产品，押注强劲的全球经济增长和美元走软将有 利于这些市场。 花旗表示，基金经理增持了亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲的股票多头部位。新兴市场债券是他 们首选的久期投资标的，这与他们持有的美国国债和欧洲核心主权债务的空头部位形成鲜明对比。花旗 也表示，在信贷方面，最大的超配是新兴市场债券，美国投资等级债券普遍获得低配。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 ...

2月26日，据外媒报道，花旗集团分析师在审查了各基金发布的展望报告后表示，全球前几大资产管理 公司（合计管理着超过20万亿美元的资产）正在买入新兴市场的股票、本币债券和信贷产品，押注强劲 的全球经济增长和美元走软将有利于这些市场。尽管本周全球市场因担忧人工智能可能颠覆经济的诸多 领域而震荡，但新兴市场资产依然表现良好。 MSCI新兴市场指数周四一度上涨0.7%，创下历史新高。相关主题ETF的交易量也大幅飙升。这一转变 也反映出发达市场前景更加不明朗。由于政策不确定性和财政担忧令市场情绪承压，美国、日本和德国 的国债收益率飙升。 来源：金十数据 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】据路透社消息，随着大型科技股的回报逐渐消退，以及表现更好的海外市场变得更具吸引力，美国投资者正以至少16年来的最快速 度撤离本国股市。 伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）旗下的Lipper数据显示，在过去六个月里，总部位于美国的投资者已从美国股票产品中撤出约750亿美元，其中仅自2026年初 以来的流出额就达520亿美元，这是自2010年以来年初八周最大的资金流出规模。 路透社报道，尽管美元兑其他货币汇率走弱，使得美国投资者购买海外资产的成本更高，但这一转变依然存在。这是一个有力的信号，表明过去一年一些国 际投资者所做的远离美国资产的多元化投资正在美国投资者中获得关注。 随着人们对人工智能潜在风险以及相关成本的担忧加剧，华尔街股票的吸引力减弱。此前美国巨头科技股一直上涨，股价飙升让投资者变得更加挑剔，许多 人正在其他地方发现更具吸引力的机会。 美国银行（Bank of America）2月份的基金经理调查显示，投资者从美国股市转向新兴市场股市的速度达到了五年来最快。 "今年我与我们在美国的财富业务部门进行了很多次对话。"瑞银（UBS）欧洲股票策略及全球衍生品策略主管Gerry Fowler表 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America signals a tactical sell signal despite the "bull-bear indicator" being in an extremely bullish zone (9.2), suggesting investors should rotate rather than retreat, focusing on small-cap stocks and real economy sectors over large-cap and tech stocks [1][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market sentiment indicates that while the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair typically leads to yield fluctuations, it is believed that the new chair in 2026 will not allow the 30-year Treasury yield to exceed the 5% "safe haven" level due to interventions like quantitative easing (QE) and yield curve control (YCC) [2]. - The bond market is experiencing a severe bear market, with the price of 30-year U.S. Treasuries dropping by 50% and Japanese government bonds (JGB) falling by 45% since the beginning of the 2020s [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Despite rising yields, the bond market recorded an inflow of $15.4 billion, while gold saw inflows of $4.9 billion. Conversely, U.S. equities experienced an outflow of $16.8 billion, marking the first outflow in two weeks [4]. - The bear market in bonds has led to a bull market for U.S. tech stocks, European/Japanese bank stocks, and gold in the first half of the decade, while emerging markets (EM) and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit in the latter half [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy of "buying Detroit and shorting Davos" emphasizes a bullish outlook on U.S. small-cap stocks until 2027, supported by four pillars: global macro trends, extreme capital outflows from Japan, undervaluation of small-cap stocks, and government interventions to control costs [10][11]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current situation resembles the 1970s, where initially gold thrived, followed by small-cap stocks becoming the best-performing assets [7]. Group 4: Emerging Markets and Capital Flows - Capital is flowing from weak Asian currencies to U.S. and European assets, with South Korean retail investors having invested nearly $100 billion in U.S. stocks since 2019 [16]. - The long-term bull market for international stocks is entering its second year, driven by strong commodity prices and a strengthening of emerging market currencies, which is expected to lower emerging market bond yields and propel emerging market stocks into a new relative bull market [16].

格隆汇1月23日｜据彭博，在美国与欧洲关系紧张之际，美元承压，全球各地资产分散配置的势头再 起，新兴市场股票、货币与贵金属延续2026年以来的强劲开局。周五涨势加速，MSCI新兴市场指数有 望连续第五周上涨，为去年5月以来最长连涨纪录。今年以来，该指数累计上涨7%，而标普500指数仅 上涨1%。亚洲科技股为新兴市场这一轮上涨提供了支撑。南非股市基准指数有望连续第三周上涨，与 此同时黄金交投于每盎司略低于5,000美元。随着资金从美国资产向外轮动的势头增强，投资者正以纪 录速度向新兴市场基金投入资金，推动新兴市场股票指数升至纪录高位。 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：晨星投资说 Christine Benz 来源：雪球 投资市场的2025年，已经画上了句号。A股、港股和黄金在全球大类资产中的表现居前；而在前几年市场波动中为投资者提供保护的中国债券、以 及曾长期领跑全球的美股在2025年的表现则略显黯淡。 以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊配置的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ | 122 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ਰ ਜਿੱਟ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 19.60 | 31.37 | 9.32 | 39.19 | 29.89 | 58.04 | 36.32 | 29.76 | 29.18 | 60.29 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to perform well in 2026, with a general consensus among institutions that there is little pessimism regarding these markets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging market local currency bonds have risen by 18% and stocks by 26% in 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years [3]. - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [3]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a return of 16.71% this year, the best since 2009 [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors revealed that there is almost no pessimism towards emerging markets [4]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging markets have completely disappeared, with net bullish sentiment reaching a historical high [4]. - Strategas estimates that U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a more accommodative global financial environment and stable internal policies, with growth anticipated to outperform developed economies [6]. - The Asian region is highlighted as a key growth engine, with potential for pro-business governments emerging from elections in Latin America [6]. - Structural trends such as geopolitical reshuffling and supply chain restructuring are expected to favor emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to high yields and diversification benefits, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America, and Asia [6]. - Investment in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy in China, is recommended [6]. - The outlook for Indian markets is positive, driven by the "Make in India" initiative, which is expected to boost manufacturing and infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Fed to maintain loose monetary policy [9]. - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that emerging markets will benefit from a weaker dollar and the investment boom in AI [9]. - Emerging market currency volatility is currently low, but there are concerns that unfavorable exchange rate movements could erase gains [11].