Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 截至2025年岁末，新兴市场债券和股票2025年均录得两位数比例的上涨。 美国银行近期对300位投资者进行的170场会议调查显示，华尔街几乎没有人对新兴市场持有悲观态度。 机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 2025年新兴市场股债汇录得两位数涨幅 今年稍早，在特朗普政府宣布所谓"对等关税"后，投资者因多年回报疲弱以及对贸易战的担忧，在很长 一段时间内回避新兴市场资产。但如今，情况急剧逆转。 根据媒体汇编数据，新兴市场本币债券2025年至今上涨了18%，股票也整体上涨了26%。同时，自2017 年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债收益率利差收窄至11年来最 低水平。同时，衡量新兴市场外汇套利交易策略的彭博新兴市场套利指数（Emerging Market Carry Index）今年至今的投资回报率高达16.71%，也取得了自2009年以来的最佳投资回报。 同时，新兴市场在全球股票和债券基准指数中的份额也正在上升。在彭博全球大中型股指数中，新兴市 场股票的权重相对于发达市场提高了一个多百分点，接近13%，而新兴市场债券在彭博 ...

AllianceBernstein LP新兴市场股票主管萨米·铃木(Sammy Suzuki)表示："2025年是一个拐点。一年前的问题还是新兴市场是否具备投资价值，但现在我们已 经不再被问到这个问题了。" 更多上行空间 智通财经APP获悉，新兴市场有望在2026年伊始成为华尔街的宠儿，资产管理机构正押注一轮持续多年的资金流入周期已经启动。今年涌入该领域的资本规 模——覆盖所有新兴市场证券，创下自2009年以来的最佳表现——表明，越来越多的投资者正在重新配置这一此前多年表现乏力、长期不受青睐的资产类 别。自2017年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债之间的利差收窄至11年来最低水平，而套利交易策略——通常是借入 低收益资产、买入高收益资产——也取得了自2009年以来的最佳回报。 美国银行最近在伦敦举行的投资会议上充分展示了市场对该领域的热情。该行邀请了300位投资者并举行了170场会议，发现几乎没有人对新兴市场持悲观态 度。美银新兴市场固定收益部门主管大卫·豪纳(David Hauner)的结论是："新兴市场的悲观论者已经绝迹了。" 全球资本流动可能正在发生更根本性的转变。投资组 ...

全球资管巨头景顺最新发布2026年全球投资展望。景顺认为，当前人工智能并未处于典型泡沫状态， 2026年新兴市场有望跑赢发达市场。在新兴市场中，中国股市尤其是中国科技股具有显著的吸引力。 数据显示，截至今年9月底，景顺管理资产规模为2.1万亿美元，约合人民币14.8万亿元。 "当前并不处于AI泡沫中" 近日，关于人工智能（AI）"泡沫论"的激辩愈演愈烈。对此，景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭表示， 市场参与者认为AI存在泡沫并非没有理由。过去几年，AI对标普500指数总回报的贡献比例很高，导致 相关企业在指数中的权重持续上升，目前已占约28%至29%。 但赵耀庭并不认为当前正处于AI泡沫之中。他表示，与20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫时期纳斯达克指数 巨大涨幅相比，目前的上涨幅度仍然较小。此外，互联网泡沫时期股票的估值多基于收入，而当前AI 相关企业的估值则更多建立在盈利之上。这意味着未来的上涨空间仍将取决于盈利是否持续增长。因 此，美国AI股票能否再次上涨将更多由盈利驱动，而非估值扩张。 "不过，市场中的确出现了一些值得关注的、类似泡沫的行为，尤其是在数据中心建设领域。过去，数 据中心的投资主要来自企业自身的现金 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, citing resilient employment indicators despite government shutdown impacts [1] - The firm believes that recent strong rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell supports the view that the Fed may pause rate cuts after two consecutive reductions [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - UBS analysts indicate that gold prices are in an upward trend, with expectations for a stable period before further increases [2] - Citi forecasts copper prices to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by a bullish outlook despite current weak physical demand [3] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, with a projected annual return of 6.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Emerging markets are expected to yield a stronger annual return of 10.9%, driven by robust earnings growth in China and India [4] Group 4: Currency and Reserve Management - Standard Chartered notes a gradual reduction in global reserve managers' reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a shift towards a broader range of currencies [5] - The bank suggests that this diversification indicates a weakening structural demand for U.S. assets, although short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [5] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that increased bond issuance in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher risk premiums and steeper yield curves [6] - The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, the yield on 10-year German bonds will reach 3%, while U.S. 10-year bonds will hit 4.5% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - ING analysts expect the dollar to decline next year due to lower hedging costs from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which may increase the hedging ratio for U.S. assets [7] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by Q4 2026, supported by expectations of accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone [7] Group 7: Domestic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights the competitive advantage of the domestic energy storage industry, predicting significant growth in global energy storage installations by 2025 [8] - The firm recommends focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, particularly in battery cells and system integration [8] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Sector - CITIC Securities continues to favor the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting investment in companies driven by innovation and international expansion [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in core components and the impact of new policies on the sector [9] Group 9: New Materials Sector - CITIC Securities identifies potential trading opportunities in the new materials sector, particularly in AI materials and hydrogen energy, driven by policy and performance catalysts [10] - The firm encourages active investment in high-growth industries and quality segments within the new materials space [10] Group 10: Banking Sector Performance - Galaxy Securities notes that banks are maintaining strong mid-term dividend payouts, with stable earnings supported by net interest income improvements [11] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy measures on credit structure optimization and the long-term transformation of the banking industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

Global Central Bank Policy Divergence - Major developed economies are experiencing varied interest rate policies, with the Federal Reserve cautiously lowering rates, the European Central Bank pausing actions, and the Bank of Japan signaling potential rate hikes [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts remain uncertain due to a lack of key economic data amid a prolonged government shutdown [1][2] - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, with expectations to keep rates unchanged in December [1][2] Emerging Market Rate Cuts - Several emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico's central bank lowering rates by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the lowest since May 2022 [2] - Poland's central bank also announced its fifth rate cut of the year, while other countries like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia followed suit with similar reductions [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with further cuts anticipated by the end of 2026 [2] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are seen as benefiting from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with greater room for monetary easing and resilient economic growth prospects [4][6] - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4] - The decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing investment opportunities in local currency bonds and equities [4][6] Capital Flows and Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policy reflects changes in interest rate differentials, influencing global capital flows towards emerging markets [5][6] - Emerging markets generally maintain higher interest rates than developed economies, providing significant potential for economic growth through rate cuts [6] - The weakening dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential for returns [6] Future Outlook for Emerging Markets - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in the bond sector, supported by improving fundamentals and attractive yields [7] - Despite warnings of potential market corrections, structural opportunities in markets like China, Japan, and India are highlighted as key areas for investment [7] - The recent performance of emerging market stocks has been strong, driven by a search for value and safe havens amid global risk asset sell-offs [7]

Market Overview - On November 6, A-shares saw a rally with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, driven by a rebound in computing hardware stocks, leading the ChiNext Index to rise over 2% during the session [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42 points, up 1.73%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3224.62 points, up 1.84% [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,759 billion yuan, an increase of 1,816 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] International Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets both closed higher on November 6, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 1.34% to 50,883.68 points, led by gains in the electronics and machinery sectors [6] - The Korean Composite Index ended a two-day decline, closing up 0.55% at 4,026.45 points [6] Bond Market - As of the close on November 6, the main contracts for government bonds showed mixed results, with the 30-year government bond futures (TL2512) closing at 116.110 yuan, down 0.330 yuan (0.28%); the 10-year bond futures (T2512) at 108.535 yuan, down 0.095 yuan (0.09%); and the 5-year bond futures (TF2512) at 105.965 yuan, down 0.035 yuan (0.03%) [6] Commodity Market - On November 6, most domestic commodity futures contracts closed higher, with paraxylene rising over 3%, and coking coal, PTA, and caustic soda rising over 2% [7] - The shipping index (European line) fell over 3%, while asphalt dropped over 2% [7] Institutional Insights - Swiss Bank's Nenad Dinic indicated that cyclical and structural favorable factors will support emerging market stocks to maintain strong momentum through 2026 [7] - Industrial Securities noted that the recent volatility in overseas markets is due to weakening fundamentals and liquidity, driven by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over AI giants' capital expenditures [7] - CITIC Securities reported that gold will continue to benefit from global liquidity expansion and preferences driven by de-globalization risks, with multiple factors likely to drive gold prices upward next year [7] Industry Specific Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, predicting that the second half of 2025 will mark the bottom of the liquor industry's fundamentals, characterized by weak sales and declining prices [8] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that the high certainty of Federal Reserve rate cuts has not been fully reflected, leading to a valuation digestion phase in Hong Kong stocks, but the core logic of rate cuts remains intact, limiting the downside for Hong Kong stocks [8] - Recent tax policy changes regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation are expected to significantly impact the pricing and overall supply-demand balance in the futures market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Market Investment Opportunities - Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, Fidelity International has shifted its tactical asset allocation to a more positive stance on risk assets, particularly favoring emerging market equities and bonds [3]. - Fidelity International maintains a bullish outlook on emerging market stocks, especially in China, anticipating more consumer stimulus measures and improvements in industrial profit margins due to "anti-involution" policies [3]. - The firm also sees emerging market bonds as attractive due to their solid fundamentals and better valuations compared to developed market investment-grade bonds, with a weaker dollar further enhancing their appeal [3]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Resource Sectors - The A-share market is viewed as being in a critical window, with foreign asset management institutions optimistic about structural opportunities in the fourth quarter due to improved liquidity and risk appetite [4]. - The technology growth sector is particularly favored, with an emphasis on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, despite potential short-term price pressures [4]. - The resource sector is gaining attention, with rising prices in precious metals, base metals, and energy metals, as the investment focus shifts towards cyclical commodities like copper and other non-ferrous metals [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic Asset - Fidelity International holds a bullish view on gold, suggesting that as investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets and diversify, gold may attract structural inflows due to factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that most investors lack the ability to predict market movements and should instead focus on identifying patterns and understanding market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [4][6][12]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle 1: Most individuals do not possess predictive abilities; instead, they should identify patterns and study market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [6]. - Principle 2: The spread between high-yield bonds and government bonds serves as an effective signal for identifying market cycles [6][15]. - Principle 3: The traditional 60/40 portfolio has flaws, particularly during high inflation periods when both stocks and bonds may decline simultaneously [25][26]. - Principle 4: Valuation changes reward cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones, which is a significant recurring feature in global equity markets [30]. - Principle 5: Crises often present opportunities, while opportunities can be accompanied by bubbles [31]. - Principle 6: High-quality small-cap stocks, especially those with low valuations and net cash, present excellent investment opportunities [7][41]. Group 2: Market Nature and Cycle Positioning - Market Nature: The market is inherently unpredictable, and human cognitive limitations hinder accurate forecasting [12][13]. - Cycle Positioning: The relationship between high-yield spreads and inflation is crucial for understanding market cycles [14][15]. - High-yield spreads indicate when to allocate to defensive assets or small-cap value stocks and commodities [16][19]. - Inflation impacts the performance of stocks and bonds, particularly during periods of high inflation where both may decline [26][28]. Group 3: Asset Selection - Asset Selection: The principle of mean reversion suggests that valuation changes favor cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones [30]. - Value and Profitability Factors: Long-term performance indicates that value and profitability factors can outperform the market [34][38]. - High-quality small-cap stocks are identified as having significant investment potential due to their growth sensitivity and market mispricing [41][44]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - Long-term correlation exists between copper and oil prices, reflecting economic conditions [46]. - The copper-oil ratio serves as an economic cycle indicator, guiding asset allocation decisions [47][48]. Group 5: Gold as an Asset - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset that cannot be manipulated by governments or central banks, making it a preferred choice during extreme inflation or deflation [51][52]. - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases, which stabilize its long-term value [55]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction - The article advocates for an all-weather portfolio that includes currencies and commodities to reduce volatility and maximize returns [58][59]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is deemed insufficient for managing stock risk exposure, suggesting a need for a more diversified approach [58].