花旗预计到2026年第二季度，铜价将继续攀升至平均1.2万美元/吨（牛市情况为1.4万美元/吨）；预计 今年剩余时间铜交易价格约为1.1万美元/吨。忽略近期实物需求疲软的因素，目标价反映出2026年更看 涨的基本面设置，但如果看涨催化剂出现，铜价可能比预期更快涨至1.2万美元/吨。全球制造业情绪好 坏参半，意味着2025年剩余时间内周期性铜需求板块上行空间有限。预计在2024年较强劲消费的基础 上，2025年第四季度铜消费同比增长将持续走软，制造业活动也将放缓，但预计在美国宽松的财政和全 球货币政策的帮助下，到2026年将出现复苏。 4. 高盛预测：美国股市将在未来十年内表现逊于新兴市场 国外 1. 野村：预计美联储将在12月暂停降息 野村证券现在预计美联储将在12月维持利率不变，并辩称，尽管美国政府停摆影响了官方数据的发布， 但近期指标仍显示就业市场具有弹性。该行在给客户的一份报告中说，美联储主席鲍威尔在10月新闻发 布会上出人意料的强硬语气，强化了该行的观点，即美联储可能会在连续两次降息后暂停降息。暂停降 息可能会重新引发对美联储的政治压力，预计特朗普总统将批评这一决定，声称这是在大选年到来之际 对经济增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

◎记者 黄冰玉 当前，全球央行货币政策分化，主要发达经济体降息步调不一：美联储谨慎推进降息；欧洲央行暂停行 动；日本央行则释放加息信号。与此同时，多数新兴市场国家正加快降息步伐。 这一政策差异导致全球利差变化，促使资本持续流向新兴市场。得益于更大的降息空间、缓解的通胀压 力以及更具韧性的经济增长前景，新兴市场资产"良机已至"，其本币债券和股票市场因估值优势、较高 回报潜力和美元走弱预期而受到全球资金青睐，展现出显著的投资机遇。 全球央行货币政策分化 美联储"鹰派"降息、欧洲央行按兵不动、日本央行暗示加息……当前，全球央行似乎走上了货币政策 的"十字路口"。 业内人士普遍认为，美联储降息为其他全球主要央行提供了放宽政策的空间，其中新兴市场受益相对较 多——当前，多数新兴市场国家具有更大的降息空间，并支持新兴市场股票及本币债券的潜在回报。此 外，新兴市场凭借仍然有韧性的内需市场和科技进一步发展，凸显出更多的投资机遇。 眼下全球通胀趋势罕见逆转，彭博指数显示，新兴市场消费者价格指数连续两个季度增速低于发达国 家。这种逆转在过去35年中未曾出现。具体来看，新兴市场年均通胀率连续五个季度下降，7至9月降至 2.47%， ...

Market Overview - On November 6, A-shares saw a rally with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, driven by a rebound in computing hardware stocks, leading the ChiNext Index to rise over 2% during the session [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42 points, up 1.73%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3224.62 points, up 1.84% [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,759 billion yuan, an increase of 1,816 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] International Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets both closed higher on November 6, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 1.34% to 50,883.68 points, led by gains in the electronics and machinery sectors [6] - The Korean Composite Index ended a two-day decline, closing up 0.55% at 4,026.45 points [6] Bond Market - As of the close on November 6, the main contracts for government bonds showed mixed results, with the 30-year government bond futures (TL2512) closing at 116.110 yuan, down 0.330 yuan (0.28%); the 10-year bond futures (T2512) at 108.535 yuan, down 0.095 yuan (0.09%); and the 5-year bond futures (TF2512) at 105.965 yuan, down 0.035 yuan (0.03%) [6] Commodity Market - On November 6, most domestic commodity futures contracts closed higher, with paraxylene rising over 3%, and coking coal, PTA, and caustic soda rising over 2% [7] - The shipping index (European line) fell over 3%, while asphalt dropped over 2% [7] Institutional Insights - Swiss Bank's Nenad Dinic indicated that cyclical and structural favorable factors will support emerging market stocks to maintain strong momentum through 2026 [7] - Industrial Securities noted that the recent volatility in overseas markets is due to weakening fundamentals and liquidity, driven by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over AI giants' capital expenditures [7] - CITIC Securities reported that gold will continue to benefit from global liquidity expansion and preferences driven by de-globalization risks, with multiple factors likely to drive gold prices upward next year [7] Industry Specific Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, predicting that the second half of 2025 will mark the bottom of the liquor industry's fundamentals, characterized by weak sales and declining prices [8] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that the high certainty of Federal Reserve rate cuts has not been fully reflected, leading to a valuation digestion phase in Hong Kong stocks, but the core logic of rate cuts remains intact, limiting the downside for Hong Kong stocks [8] - Recent tax policy changes regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation are expected to significantly impact the pricing and overall supply-demand balance in the futures market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Market Investment Opportunities - Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, Fidelity International has shifted its tactical asset allocation to a more positive stance on risk assets, particularly favoring emerging market equities and bonds [3]. - Fidelity International maintains a bullish outlook on emerging market stocks, especially in China, anticipating more consumer stimulus measures and improvements in industrial profit margins due to "anti-involution" policies [3]. - The firm also sees emerging market bonds as attractive due to their solid fundamentals and better valuations compared to developed market investment-grade bonds, with a weaker dollar further enhancing their appeal [3]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Resource Sectors - The A-share market is viewed as being in a critical window, with foreign asset management institutions optimistic about structural opportunities in the fourth quarter due to improved liquidity and risk appetite [4]. - The technology growth sector is particularly favored, with an emphasis on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, despite potential short-term price pressures [4]. - The resource sector is gaining attention, with rising prices in precious metals, base metals, and energy metals, as the investment focus shifts towards cyclical commodities like copper and other non-ferrous metals [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic Asset - Fidelity International holds a bullish view on gold, suggesting that as investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets and diversify, gold may attract structural inflows due to factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that most investors lack the ability to predict market movements and should instead focus on identifying patterns and understanding market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [4][6][12]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle 1: Most individuals do not possess predictive abilities; instead, they should identify patterns and study market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [6]. - Principle 2: The spread between high-yield bonds and government bonds serves as an effective signal for identifying market cycles [6][15]. - Principle 3: The traditional 60/40 portfolio has flaws, particularly during high inflation periods when both stocks and bonds may decline simultaneously [25][26]. - Principle 4: Valuation changes reward cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones, which is a significant recurring feature in global equity markets [30]. - Principle 5: Crises often present opportunities, while opportunities can be accompanied by bubbles [31]. - Principle 6: High-quality small-cap stocks, especially those with low valuations and net cash, present excellent investment opportunities [7][41]. Group 2: Market Nature and Cycle Positioning - Market Nature: The market is inherently unpredictable, and human cognitive limitations hinder accurate forecasting [12][13]. - Cycle Positioning: The relationship between high-yield spreads and inflation is crucial for understanding market cycles [14][15]. - High-yield spreads indicate when to allocate to defensive assets or small-cap value stocks and commodities [16][19]. - Inflation impacts the performance of stocks and bonds, particularly during periods of high inflation where both may decline [26][28]. Group 3: Asset Selection - Asset Selection: The principle of mean reversion suggests that valuation changes favor cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones [30]. - Value and Profitability Factors: Long-term performance indicates that value and profitability factors can outperform the market [34][38]. - High-quality small-cap stocks are identified as having significant investment potential due to their growth sensitivity and market mispricing [41][44]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - Long-term correlation exists between copper and oil prices, reflecting economic conditions [46]. - The copper-oil ratio serves as an economic cycle indicator, guiding asset allocation decisions [47][48]. Group 5: Gold as an Asset - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset that cannot be manipulated by governments or central banks, making it a preferred choice during extreme inflation or deflation [51][52]. - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases, which stabilize its long-term value [55]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction - The article advocates for an all-weather portfolio that includes currencies and commodities to reduce volatility and maximize returns [58][59]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is deemed insufficient for managing stock risk exposure, suggesting a need for a more diversified approach [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Japanese stock market remains one of the top choices in global investment portfolios due to robust economic growth and ongoing corporate governance reforms [1][2] - BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) maintains an overweight position on Japanese equities, highlighting the positive impact of rising wages on consumer spending [1] - Despite the recent depreciation of the yen to a 34-year low, BII believes this will not hinder the upward trend of the Japanese stock market [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the Japanese stock market has recently reached new highs, contrasting with the U.S. stock market, which is hovering around historical highs [1] - Emerging market stocks have also performed well this year, becoming one of the best-performing asset classes globally [1] - BII is closely monitoring the development of artificial intelligence (AI) in global markets, viewing it as a significant driver of stock market performance across various industries [1] Group 3 - The widening interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is a primary factor contributing to the weakening of the yen [2] - BII anticipates that as the U.S. begins to lower interest rates, the interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. will gradually narrow, aiding in the stabilization of the yen [2] - The report emphasizes multiple favorable factors for the Japanese stock market, including corporate reforms, wage growth, and stable policies, making it a worthwhile focus for investors [2]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Group 1 - UBS's report indicates that family offices are gradually reducing cash holdings and increasing interest in gold, precious metals, and private debt [1][2] - 19% of global family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region, up 3 percentage points from 2024, with 30% in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting a growing interest in this market [1] - The preference for the Greater China region is attributed to China's robust economic growth, expanding consumer market, and rapid development in technology innovation [1] Group 2 - Family offices are expected to reduce cash allocation to 6% by 2025, reflecting a shift towards assets with growth potential, particularly in developed market equities [2] - Interest in private debt has significantly increased among family offices, aiming to enhance overall portfolio returns through diversification [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, indicating a rising demand for risk-hedging assets [3] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, driven by strong investment inflows amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Family offices are balancing investments between technology stocks and precious metals, indicating a strategy to capture growth opportunities while hedging against risks [4] - The long-term low-interest rate environment is pushing family offices to explore non-traditional investment avenues, including private equity and infrastructure [5] Group 4 - 45% of Middle Eastern family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region over the next five years, highlighting the region's growing appeal [7] - China and India are the most focused markets for family offices in the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase investments in mainland China [7] - Approximately 78% of Asia-Pacific family offices prefer active investment strategies to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [7] Group 5 - The development of family offices in China is driven by rapid economic growth and the need for wealth management tools for succession planning [8] - China's ongoing high-level opening-up policies and the dual drivers of consumption and technology are creating fertile investment opportunities [8] - The current market conditions present opportunities for investors to capitalize on valuation gaps and achieve cost-effective positioning [8]

Core Insights - UBS conducted a global family office survey with 317 participants, revealing a historical high in wealth scale and a trend of increasing total net worth among family offices since 2020 [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - Family offices are reducing cash allocations, with a planned cash holding of only 6% by 2025, shifting towards global equities due to low cash yields [2] - There is a significant increase in private debt investments among family offices to enhance returns and diversify portfolios, with 48% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase developed market equities [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, where the interest is notably high [4] Group 2: Interest in Chinese Assets - Global family offices show increasing interest in Chinese assets, with 19% planning to allocate more to this region, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 30% of family offices intend to increase their allocation to China, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with the Middle East showing the highest interest at 45% [5][6] - China and India are identified as the most favored emerging market destinations for investment over the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase their holdings in mainland China [7] Group 3: Long-term Investment Focus - Family offices prefer active management strategies, with 78% in the Asia-Pacific region employing such approaches, focusing on sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [8] - There is a strong emphasis on sustainable and impact investing, with 44% of global family offices supporting education through charitable means, and 61% in the Asia-Pacific investing in healthcare technology and related projects [8] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - To mitigate potential risks, family offices adopt diversified investment strategies, with 40% employing active management and professional investment managers [9] - Nearly one-third of family offices utilize hedge funds to manage market volatility, while others increase allocations to illiquid assets, high-quality fixed income, and precious metals to enhance portfolio resilience [9]