此外，BII也关注人工智能主题在全球市场的发展，认为AI将持续成为驱动股市的重要因素。Powell补 充：AI不仅是科技股的催化剂，也正逐步渗透至其他产业，成为全球投资的重要主题。 展望未来一周，BII将密切关注美国就业数据的公布。报告指出，若美国劳动市场未出现明显疲弱，美 联储可能不会如市场预期般迅速降息。该行指目前通胀仍具黏性，利率可能维持高档更久，这将影响资 产配置与市场走向。 贝莱德投资研究院(BlackRock Investment Institute,BII)最新发布《每周市场评论》，认为日本股市仍是全 球投资组合中的首选之一。报告指出，日本经济稳健成长，加上持续推动有利股东的企业改革，使日本 股市表现强劲，BII维持对日本股票的超配立场。 BII中东及亚太区首席投资策略师Ben Powell表示，该行看好日本的长期潜力，企业治理改革正在发酵， 薪资上升亦有助于消费支出。即使日元近期贬值至34年新低，仍认为这不会阻碍日本股市的上升趋势。 报告指出，日本股市近期屡创新高，与美国股市徘徊在历史高位形成鲜明对比。新兴市场股票亦在今年 表现亮眼，成为全球表现最佳的资产之一。 在全球利率政策分歧的背景下，日 ...

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Group 1 - UBS's report indicates that family offices are gradually reducing cash holdings and increasing interest in gold, precious metals, and private debt [1][2] - 19% of global family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region, up 3 percentage points from 2024, with 30% in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting a growing interest in this market [1] - The preference for the Greater China region is attributed to China's robust economic growth, expanding consumer market, and rapid development in technology innovation [1] Group 2 - Family offices are expected to reduce cash allocation to 6% by 2025, reflecting a shift towards assets with growth potential, particularly in developed market equities [2] - Interest in private debt has significantly increased among family offices, aiming to enhance overall portfolio returns through diversification [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, indicating a rising demand for risk-hedging assets [3] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, driven by strong investment inflows amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Family offices are balancing investments between technology stocks and precious metals, indicating a strategy to capture growth opportunities while hedging against risks [4] - The long-term low-interest rate environment is pushing family offices to explore non-traditional investment avenues, including private equity and infrastructure [5] Group 4 - 45% of Middle Eastern family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region over the next five years, highlighting the region's growing appeal [7] - China and India are the most focused markets for family offices in the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase investments in mainland China [7] - Approximately 78% of Asia-Pacific family offices prefer active investment strategies to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [7] Group 5 - The development of family offices in China is driven by rapid economic growth and the need for wealth management tools for succession planning [8] - China's ongoing high-level opening-up policies and the dual drivers of consumption and technology are creating fertile investment opportunities [8] - The current market conditions present opportunities for investors to capitalize on valuation gaps and achieve cost-effective positioning [8]

Core Insights - UBS conducted a global family office survey with 317 participants, revealing a historical high in wealth scale and a trend of increasing total net worth among family offices since 2020 [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - Family offices are reducing cash allocations, with a planned cash holding of only 6% by 2025, shifting towards global equities due to low cash yields [2] - There is a significant increase in private debt investments among family offices to enhance returns and diversify portfolios, with 48% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase developed market equities [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, where the interest is notably high [4] Group 2: Interest in Chinese Assets - Global family offices show increasing interest in Chinese assets, with 19% planning to allocate more to this region, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 30% of family offices intend to increase their allocation to China, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with the Middle East showing the highest interest at 45% [5][6] - China and India are identified as the most favored emerging market destinations for investment over the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase their holdings in mainland China [7] Group 3: Long-term Investment Focus - Family offices prefer active management strategies, with 78% in the Asia-Pacific region employing such approaches, focusing on sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [8] - There is a strong emphasis on sustainable and impact investing, with 44% of global family offices supporting education through charitable means, and 61% in the Asia-Pacific investing in healthcare technology and related projects [8] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - To mitigate potential risks, family offices adopt diversified investment strategies, with 40% employing active management and professional investment managers [9] - Nearly one-third of family offices utilize hedge funds to manage market volatility, while others increase allocations to illiquid assets, high-quality fixed income, and precious metals to enhance portfolio resilience [9]

Group 1: Historical Evolution of the Dollar's Credit Anchor - The dollar's rise was initially supported by gold, with the U.S. holding 62% of global gold reserves by 1945[1] - The Bretton Woods system (1944-1973) faced challenges due to the Triffin dilemma, leading to a collapse of the gold-dollar peg[2] - The transition to the petrodollar system (1973-2008) created a credit loop of "oil-dollar-U.S. debt," but also exposed vulnerabilities during financial crises[3] Group 2: Current Trends and Future Outlook - In the short term (within 1 year), the dollar is expected to experience weak fluctuations, primarily due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - The medium-term (1-3 years) outlook indicates a structural depreciation of the dollar, driven by fiscal sustainability concerns and diversification trends[5] - Long-term (over 3 years), the dollar's share is projected to align more closely with economic strength, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system[6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with foreign capital inflows likely to boost domestic demand-driven stocks[7] - Gold remains a strong asset allocation choice, supported by weak dollar pricing, central bank demand, and geopolitical risk premiums[8] - Risks include potential deterioration in global liquidity and unexpected advancements in AI technology impacting financial markets[9]

金十数据7月15日讯，美国银行7月全球基金经理调查显示，过去六个月投资者对欧元的持仓增幅创下纪 录。目前，净20%的投资者超配欧元，这一比例为2005年1月以来的最高水平。超配指的是投资组合中 对某类资产的持仓比例高于常规水平。今年1月时，投资者对欧元的持仓为净18%低配，如今已上升39 个百分点，这是六个月内的创纪录增幅。7月，投资者超配比例最高的资产包括欧元，以及欧元区股 票、新兴市场股票和银行股。调查还显示，净31%的投资者认为欧元被低估，较6月的38%有所下降。 美国银行：过去六个月投资者对欧元持仓增幅创下纪录 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index (DXY) to 97.48 represents a significant drop of over 10% this year, erasing all gains from the previous year [1][3] - Trump's intention to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair before Powell's term ends is aimed at influencing market expectations and potentially altering interest rate policies [3][4] - The leading candidate for the new chair is Kevin Walsh, who has previously supported rate cuts, indicating a possible shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Historical trends show that the dollar's performance is closely tied to the Federal Reserve chair's policy stance, with a dovish shift likely to weaken the dollar further [4][5] - A weaker dollar is expected to benefit gold and commodities, as it makes these assets cheaper for holders of other currencies [5] - Investors should monitor key dates: the announcement of the new chair this summer or fall, and the official transition in May next year, as these could lead to significant market volatility and investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies and stocks have declined due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with indices dropping over 0.4% before narrowing to a 0.1% decline at close [1] - The South African rand, Hungarian forint, and South Korean won were among the worst performers, each depreciating over 1% against the US dollar, while the Israeli shekel dropped as much as 0.8% before recovering [1] - The market is under pressure from risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, fund managers believe that the strong performance of emerging markets relative to US assets will continue, as the risks from the conflict are not expected to be deep or prolonged [4] - Emerging markets are expected to outperform other markets in macroeconomic growth this year and next, with international investors recognizing the need to diversify their investments [7]

Group 1 - The CEO of DoubleLine Capital, Jeffrey Gundlach, predicts a long-term decline of the US dollar, suggesting that international stocks, particularly from emerging markets, will outperform US equities [1][2] - Gundlach emphasizes a trading strategy focused on holding stocks outside the US, particularly in regions like China and Southeast Asia, as the dollar enters a bear market [1][3] - The ICE Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% this year, reflecting a weakening dollar since 2025 due to aggressive policies from the Trump administration [1][3] Group 2 - Gundlach identifies India as a preferred long-term investment in emerging markets, while also considering Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Latin America as viable options [2] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions and unpredictable US policies may lead foreign investors to delay capital investments in the US market, potentially benefiting international markets [2] - Gundlach has maintained a negative outlook on the US market, citing several recession indicators and predicting a 3% inflation rate in the US by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3 - Many Wall Street institutions believe the recent rebound of the dollar is temporary, warning of a prolonged "dollar bear market" triggered by the chaotic trade policies of the Trump administration [3] - Morgan Stanley has issued warnings about the dollar's future, predicting a significant depreciation, with the dollar index potentially falling by 9% in the next year [3] - Non-US equities have significantly outperformed US stocks this year, with expectations that a new bull market will emerge in emerging markets as the dollar declines [3]