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5月经济数据点评:增长无惧外部环境变化,未来波动预计小于预期
Orient Securities· 2025-06-16 09:13
Economic Growth Insights - May economic data shows resilience despite external pressures, with industrial added value growth at 5.8%, only down 0.3 percentage points from April's 6.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable at 3.7%, with real estate investment dragging down at -10.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, with the fastest growth in transportation equipment manufacturing at 26.1%[3] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, the first time exceeding 6% in 2024, driven by promotional activities[3] - Significant growth in household appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%) indicates strong policy support for consumption[3] - Anticipated adjustments in June may lead to a decline in consumption growth due to demand pull-forward from May[3] Employment and Future Outlook - Urban unemployment rate in May was stable at 5.0%, showing no significant impact from external shocks[3] - The second quarter GDP is expected to remain stable, with minimal fluctuations anticipated due to external changes[3] - Future growth will be supported by manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and consumer spending, despite potential declines in exports[3] Risk Considerations - Risks include heightened geopolitical conflicts and unexpected increases in oil prices impacting domestic costs[3]