Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on industrial growth, consumer spending, and investment trends for 2025. [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: In May 2025, industrial added value exceeded expectations with a month-on-month growth rate higher than previous years, indicating resilience in the production sector. The probability of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first half of the year is high. [1][2] - **Investment Trends**: Real estate investment continues to decline, with a drop of 10.7% in May 2025. However, manufacturing and infrastructure investments show growth, with manufacturing up 8.5% and infrastructure up 10.4%. Adjustments in local government debt limits are expected to support major project construction in the second half of the year. [5][8] - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth reached 6.4% year-on-year in May 2025, the first time exceeding 6% since last year. The "trade-in" policy and promotional events significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment. [6][9] - **Employment Stability**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remains stable at 5%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a solid overall employment situation that supports economic development. [7][8] - **Economic Outlook**: The economic growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the first half, but fluctuations are anticipated to be minor. The foundation laid in the first half, along with increased local budgets and expanded major project space, supports the likelihood of achieving annual targets. [8][11] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Policies**: The "trade-in" policy has led to significant sales, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan from January to May 2025, supported by approximately 130 billion yuan in fiscal funding. However, some regions have adjusted or paused the policy due to rapid fund usage. [4][10] - **Trade Dynamics**: Exports showed a mixed performance, with a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. attributed to extreme tariff impacts. Despite this, the reliance of the U.S. on Chinese imports remains high, suggesting a potential for recovery in trade. [15][16] - **Financial Data**: The growth rate of social financing has narrowed, with weak credit performance. Government bond issuance has become a key factor in supporting the economy, and the financial system's support for the real economy has strengthened. [19][20] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: There is a call for maintaining macroeconomic policy stability while promoting domestic demand to foster long-term growth. The necessity of existing policies is emphasized, even with some economic data exceeding expectations. [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations for the industry.

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...