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房价走向清晰,2025年或首迎“抛房潮”,3类人将退出楼市
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-22 02:16
Core Viewpoint - The "housing sell-off wave" in 2023 indicates a significant market shift, driven by declining property prices, shrinking demand, and impending property tax implementation, suggesting a deep adjustment period for the Chinese real estate market [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From January to June 2023, the listing volume of second-hand houses surged in 13 key cities, with Shanghai, Chengdu, and Chongqing leading at 180,000, 200,000, and 220,000 listings respectively [1]. - The price decline in the housing market has shaken investor confidence, with 91% of 100 key cities reporting a drop in second-hand housing prices [1][3]. - The sell-off is exacerbated by a significant reduction in market demand due to the pandemic's impact on income and employment, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand [3][6]. Group 2: Seller Profiles - First-time buyers who followed market trends without considering their financial capacity are now forced to sell their properties to alleviate mortgage burdens [4]. - Middle-class individuals owning multiple properties are selling off excess assets to mitigate financial risks amid falling prices and reduced income [6]. - Speculative investors, facing liquidity issues due to the pandemic, are compelled to sell properties to avoid debt crises and exit the market [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing sell-off is a signal of a deeper transformation in the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more rational market behavior and a focus on genuine housing demand rather than speculative investments [7].