Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant volatility, with predictions made by Pan Shiyi in 2018 regarding risks in the market being increasingly validated over time [1] - Key factors influencing the market include exchange rate differences, supply-demand balance, and sustainability of returns [3] Market Trends - The first trend observed is price fluctuations caused by supply disruptions, particularly as many buyers who utilized business loans during the peak period of 2020-2021 face risks due to falling property prices [5] - The second trend is the divergence in property prices across different cities and locations, with first-tier cities maintaining stable or rising prices while third and fourth-tier cities face downward pressure [5] - The third trend involves increasing difficulty in property demolition, as the market faces oversupply and government efforts focus on reducing inventory rather than increasing housing stock [7] Economic and Policy Environment - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth, but global economic uncertainties may impact the real estate market [7] - Government regulations aimed at stabilizing market expectations and prices continue to be enforced, including measures like purchase restrictions and lending limits [9] - Urbanization trends are leading to increased population movement towards first and second-tier cities, posing challenges for the real estate markets in third and fourth-tier cities [9] Market Sentiment and Challenges - The real estate market is characterized by uncertainty, with ongoing sales difficulties for developers and agents despite frequent policy interventions [11] - Issues such as unfinished projects (known as "rotten buildings") significantly undermine buyer confidence and contribute to market hesitance [11] - Buyers are encouraged to adopt a rational approach and avoid being misled by misleading promotions, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the current market landscape [13]