今年的楼市"金九"，房价表现如何？ 10月1日，中指研究院发布的数据显示，9月，全国100个城市（以下简称百城）新建住宅均价为16926 元/平方米，环比微涨0.09%，同比上涨2.68%；二手住宅均价为13381元/平方米，环比下跌0.74%，同比 下跌7.38%。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，截至今年9月，百城二手房价格已连续41个月环比下跌；三季度，百城 二手房价格累计下跌2.26%，跌幅较二季度扩大0.14个百分点；前三季度，百城二手房价格累计下跌 5.79%。 具体来看，9月，上海（ 0.82%）、杭州（ 0.51%）、广州（ 0.32%）等城市新房价格环比涨幅位居前 列；盐城（-1.87%）、徐州（-1.44%）、南通（-1.30%）等城市二手房价格环比跌幅靠前。 具体来看，上海（ 0.82%）、杭州（ 0.51%）、广州（ 0.32%）、青岛（ 0.26%）、苏州（ 0.23%）等 城市新建住宅价格环比涨幅靠前。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，与之形成鲜明对比的是，三四线代表城市去库存方面仍然乏力，9月新 建住宅价格环比下跌0.35%，同比下跌1.30%，前9个月累计跌幅达1.23%，"降价跑量" ...

今年的楼市"金九"，房价表现如何？ 10月1日，中指研究院发布的数据显示，9月，全国100个城市（以下简称百城）新建住宅均价为16926 元/平方米，环比微涨0.09%，同比上涨2.68%；二手住宅均价为13381元/平方米，环比下跌0.74%，同比 下跌7.38%。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，截至今年9月，百城二手房价格已连续41个月环比下跌；三季度，百城 二手房价格累计下跌2.26%，跌幅较二季度扩大0.14个百分点；前三季度，百城二手房价格累计下跌 5.79%。 具体来看，9月，上海（+0.82%）、杭州（+0.51%）、广州（+0.32%）等城市新房价格环比涨幅位居前 列；盐城（-1.87%）、徐州（-1.44%）、南通（-1.30%）等城市二手房价格环比跌幅靠前。 "房企今年上半年在核心城市竞得的部分地块，预计将在四季度逐步入市，（这部分）新增供应有望对 核心城市新房销售形成一定支撑，'好城市+好房子'仍具市场机会；二手房市场受挂牌量维持高位影 响，短期或将延续'以价换量'行情。"10月1日，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶在接受《每日经济 新闻》记者微信采访时如是表示。 房企推盘潮起拉动新房价格 ...

早在2017年的某次互联网大会上，马云就抛出一句令人震惊的预言："未来房价会像葱一样便宜。"当时，房价正处于上升的趋势之中。房企都在疯狂拿地建 房，而炒房者则在连夜排队买房。所以，很多人对马云的预言嗤之以鼻，认为马云的言论有哗众取宠之嫌。 从2022年开始，国内房价就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。现在全国各地的房价与历史最高位相比，平均跌幅超过30%，而像涿州、廊坊等环京楼市的房价跌 幅更是超过了60%。此外，鹤岗、阜新、双鸭山等三四线城市的房价已经跌至"白菜价"，只要花几万元或者十几万元就可以买套房子。 目前，国内房价要么正朝着马云预测的方向运行，要么部分三四线城市已经出现了"葱价"。马云当年的预言已经快要实现了。而面对当前国内房地产市场的 趋势，有业内人士表示：若无意外，2026年房地产将发生重大改变。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房地产调控力度会加强 在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场还是延续了之前调整的走势。预计到2026年这个房地产趋势还将会继续下去。而为了避免短期内房地产市场出现大幅波 动，明年的房地产调控力度大概率还会继续加强。 除了一线城市逐步放开限购政策之外，银行的房贷利率还有望进一步下降。此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a rollercoaster of fluctuations, with a consensus among industry leaders that the next five years will see a "structural differentiation" in housing prices across different cities and regions [5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, 42 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new residential property prices, while 28 cities experienced a decline [1]. - First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou continue to show price increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 2.8%, 4.1%, and 1.9% respectively [1]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities are facing challenges, with a 1.5% year-on-year decline in new residential property prices, marking the third consecutive year of price drops [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Population flow is a significant factor affecting housing prices, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing net inflows, while many third and fourth-tier cities face outflows [2]. - Financial environment improvements, such as reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, have contributed to market confidence, with the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to approximately 3.8% [4]. - The supply-demand relationship is also crucial, as a 5.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 12.3% drop in new construction area have led to reduced supply in stable demand areas, supporting price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry leaders like Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin predict that high-quality assets in core first and second-tier cities will maintain value and see moderate growth, while third and fourth-tier cities will face significant downward pressure on prices [7]. - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of broad growth to a more refined development stage, emphasizing the importance of quality properties over mere ownership [7]. - For potential homebuyers, focusing on actual needs and affordability is more critical than speculating on price movements, as the essence of housing is for living rather than investment [10].

Market Overview - The current real estate market is characterized by price differentiation and ongoing policy adjustments, with national housing prices under pressure but structural opportunities emerging [3][4] - In July, first-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 1.1% year-on-year, while Shanghai experienced a 6.1% increase, indicating a divergence in market performance [3][4] - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the market, including subsidies for families with multiple children and adjustments to housing loan policies [4][5] Policy Impact - Demand-side policies include significant subsidies for families purchasing homes, such as Wuhan's 60,000 to 120,000 yuan subsidies for families with two or three children [4][6] - Supply-side measures involve extending housing loan limits and introducing new transaction transparency measures to reduce risks [5][6] - Financial policies maintain low mortgage rates, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the lowest mortgage rates at 3.15% for commercial loans [5] Market Trends - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, with 26.5% of residential sales being existing homes in 2024, up 16 percentage points from 2020 [10] - The conversion of existing homes to affordable housing is impacting the second-hand market, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where prices are declining [10][11] - The definition of "good housing" is evolving, with a focus on quality upgrades and smart home features, leading to increased demand for modern properties [10][11] Seller Strategies - Sellers in urgent need of cash should consider pricing strategies and tax optimization to facilitate quick sales [12] - Investors holding non-core assets are advised to liquidate these properties and reinvest in prime locations or new developments with growth potential [12] - Awareness of the timing of subsidy policies is crucial for sellers to maximize benefits before potential reductions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with average housing prices dropping over 30% and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% from historical highs [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in second and third-tier cities have already seen significant declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to follow suit, indicating a potential "correction" in these markets [8]. - The current housing market is characterized by an oversupply, with approximately 600 million residential units available, which could accommodate 3 billion people if each unit housed five individuals [4]. - The economic downturn has led to reduced incomes and increased unemployment, making it difficult for many to sustain high housing prices [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - An increasing number of young people are opting to rent rather than buy homes due to the financial burden of high property prices and the associated long-term mortgage commitments [11]. - The rental market is perceived as more financially viable for young individuals, allowing them to save money while waiting for housing prices to align more closely with local incomes [11]. Group 3: Policy and Supply - The government is expected to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with a plan to provide 6 million units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually [13]. - The shift towards selling existing homes rather than pre-sold properties is anticipated to increase, allowing buyers to inspect homes before purchasing, which may alleviate some market pressures [12].

Economic Overview - The domestic economy shows promising performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - The average wage income for residents reached 12,628 yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.7% [1] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating stable price levels [1] - Challenges remain in the real estate market, consumer demand, and employment situation, suggesting a prolonged recovery for the real economy [1] Trends in the Market - **Trend 1: Divergence in Housing Prices** Housing prices are expected to show divergence, with second and third-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in price declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price corrections [3][5] - **Trend 2: Increased Demand for Bank Wealth Management Products** As bank deposit rates decline from 3.05% to 1.55% for three-year fixed deposits, more savers are turning to bank wealth management products for better returns, despite rising risks associated with these products [7] - **Trend 3: Employment Challenges for Individuals Over 35** Many companies prefer hiring individuals under 35, making it increasingly difficult for those over 35 to find jobs, leading to a rise in self-employment and gig work among older individuals [9] - **Trend 4: Record Low Birth Rates in 2025** The birth rate is projected to hit a historical low, with only 4.32 million births in the first half of 2025, potentially falling below 9 million for the entire year due to high marriage and housing costs [11] - **Trend 5: Acceleration of Rural Entrepreneurship** There is a growing trend of individuals returning to their hometowns to start businesses, driven by high living costs in major cities and rapid economic growth in rural areas [13] - **Trend 6: Proliferation of Artificial Intelligence** AI is increasingly integrated into daily life, with applications in customer service, delivery, and manufacturing, indicating a shift towards automation in various sectors [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the real estate market in China, highlighting the significant number of buildings and the implications for housing demand and investment opportunities [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Market Overview - There are approximately 6 billion buildings in China, with a population density of about 2.3 people per building, which is a rare phenomenon globally [2]. - The total number of buildings includes various types such as residential, commercial, and public structures, indicating a diverse real estate landscape [2]. - Despite the large number of buildings, there is a concentration in less populated areas, leading to tight housing conditions in first-tier cities [6]. Group 2: Future Trends - Economic predictions suggest that only 20% of cities, developers, and properties will be worth investing in, while the rest will primarily serve residential purposes [8]. - Population and price differentiation in cities is expected to continue, with cities like Tokyo and Seoul experiencing rising prices due to sustained population influx [8][10]. - In the short term, there will be downward pressure on housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to reduced new project developments and increased population outflow [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Different Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is advised to focus on personal needs and financial capabilities rather than market trends, prioritizing properties in core areas with better amenities [14]. - Investors are encouraged to change strategies, moving away from speculation and focusing on the rental market, as younger generations may prefer renting over buying [15]. - Home sellers should monitor policy changes and market conditions, considering renting out properties in prime locations instead of selling impulsively [16]. Group 4: Conclusion - The future of real estate is expected to shift towards a focus on residential attributes, moving away from speculative investments, and emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions based on personal needs and financial situations [18].

Core Insights - The real estate market is not a binary gamble, and the wealth gap between those who buy homes now and those who wait will be significant in five years [1] Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In Beijing, homeowners have seen property values drop from 4 million to 3 million, a 25% loss in wealth [3] - In Yanjiao, a homeowner's property purchased for 4 million is now listed for 1 million, reflecting a 75% loss [3] - The Nanjing Hexi area saw property prices fall from 60,000 yuan per square meter to 25,000 yuan, a 58.33% decrease [4] - Conversely, a homeowner in Shanghai who bought a property for 1.1 million in 2013 sold it for 1.6 million this year, achieving a 45% gain [5] - Shenzhen experienced a 97.3% year-on-year increase in new home transactions in January, with second-hand homes rising by 31.5% [6] - The average new home price in 100 cities slightly increased by 0.23%, with first-tier cities seeing a rise of 0.36% [6] - Predictions indicate that core city prices will stabilize, while lower-tier cities may continue to lose value [6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Financial Implications - Current mortgage rates have reached historical lows, with the 5-year LPR at 3.6% and first-time homebuyer rates in Hangzhou and Shenzhen at 3.1% [7] - A comparison of loan scenarios shows that a 100 million loan at 4.2% results in a monthly payment of 4,890 yuan, while at 3.3%, it drops to 4,380 yuan, saving 510 yuan monthly and 183,600 yuan in interest over 30 years [8][10] - Homebuyers locking in low rates now may avoid higher costs in the future if rates rise above 4% [9] Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The rental population in four major cities has reached nearly 40 million, with a significant increase in renters aged 35 and above [11][12] - Many renters face challenges such as aging properties and sudden landlord decisions, leading to a difficult rental experience [13] - Renting a property can lead to substantial costs without asset ownership, as illustrated by a case where a rented property incurs 360,000 yuan in total expenses over five years [14] - Homebuyers benefit from asset accumulation and stability for their families, contrasting with the uncertainties faced by renters [15][16] Group 4: Market Outlook - Those who purchased homes in cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou are expected to see significant benefits, with land transaction premiums exceeding 70% in Shenzhen [17] - The real estate market is experiencing unprecedented differentiation, where choosing the right city is crucial for asset preservation [18] - Core city properties remain a reliable investment, while hesitation may lead to a widening wealth gap in the future [19]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].