2025年已经过去，新的一年已经到来。回顾去年，国内经济呈现"稳中向好"的格局。数据显示：预计2025年全年，我国经济增长5%左右，经济总量有望达 到140万亿元左右。此外，居民收入持续增长。前三季度，全国居民人均可支配收入32509元，比上年同期名义增长5.1%，扣除价格因素,实际增长5.2%。同 时，国内物价总体保持稳定，甚至像房子、车子、小家电、猪肉等商品价格都在下跌。 而面对当前国内社会和经济形势，有业内人士预测：2026年这四大现象或将席卷全国，建议提前应对。而这四大现象分别是：①全国房价将出现分化趋势； ②灵活就业人员数量越来越多；③社区养老越来越普遍；④"抠门消费"越来越流行。让我们一起来了解一下： 2026年灵活就业人员数量还会持续增加。数据显示，由于就业形势比较严峻，工作不好找，现在国内灵活就业人员数量超过3亿人。未来几年灵活就业人员 数量有可能会超过4亿人。所谓灵活就业人员，就是指收入不稳定、工作不固定的劳动者。包括个体工商户、自由职业者、小时工、临时工（包括外卖员、 网约车司机、快递员）等。 不仅如此，就算有正式工作的人，也会由于收入增长放缓，而会利用业余时间为自己找点副业。比如，会开车 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a shift, with an increase in sellers and a growing number of buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "selling wave" [1] - Homeowners are reassessing the costs associated with property ownership, focusing on annual expenses rather than potential appreciation [3] - The value of properties is increasingly influenced by population movement, with demand concentrated in areas with strong educational, transportation, and employment support [7][9] Group 1: Cost Considerations - Homeowners are now calculating the total cost of ownership, including mortgage interest, property fees, heating costs, and maintenance funds, which have become more apparent as income growth slows [5] - Many landlords find that rental income only partially covers mortgage payments, leading to a shift in mindset from "waiting" to "considering selling" when properties remain vacant for extended periods [5] Group 2: Changing Value Perception - The traditional view of property value based on city location is evolving, with significant disparities emerging between different areas within the same city [7] - Properties in areas with population inflow and strong demand are less likely to face selling challenges, while those in declining areas struggle to maintain value [9] Group 3: Shifts in Buyer Preferences - Buyers are increasingly focused on practical living conditions, such as commuting times and local amenities, rather than symbolic aspects of property ownership [11] - Older properties with outdated designs and poor management are becoming harder to sell, as buyers are more selective [13] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The anticipated "selling wave" may not lead to uniform price declines; instead, some properties may experience rapid price drops while others remain stable [15] - Properties in prime locations, smaller sizes, and with good liquidity show stronger resilience against market fluctuations, while larger, less desirable properties may face more significant price adjustments [17] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is entering a more rational and differentiated phase, where properties are viewed as long-term investments requiring careful consideration rather than short-term speculation [19] - The future trajectory of housing prices may exceed expectations, with opportunities and risks becoming unevenly distributed across the market [19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential structural changes in the real estate market in China by 2026, highlighting the influence of Jack Ma's previous predictions, although it clarifies that recent claims about his predictions are false [1][6]. Group 1: Real Estate Price Trends - There is an expectation of significant differentiation in housing prices across various cities, with second and third-tier cities likely to continue bottoming out, while first-tier cities may experience a correction after a period of stability [4]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities exceeds 40, indicating that residents would need over 40 years of savings to afford a home, leading to a potential decline in prices in these areas [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The government is expected to strengthen real estate regulations, including increasing the proportion of "existing home sales" to mitigate risks associated with "pre-sale homes" [7][9]. - The easing of restrictions in core areas of first-tier cities and a decrease in mortgage rates and taxes for homebuyers are anticipated as part of the regulatory changes [9]. Group 3: Public Area Costs - There is a growing demand to eliminate shared area costs in property sales, as buyers often pay for areas that are not usable, leading to increased overall costs [11]. - Some cities have already begun to eliminate shared area costs, allowing developers to price homes based on usable area, which is expected to reduce the financial burden on buyers [11].

未来三年的中国楼市，将是一场"冰与火"的分化大戏。一边是三四线城市在人口外流、产业萎缩中持续阴跌，甚至跌回十年前水平；另一边是一线城市核心 区豪宅"慢涨"，强二线城市"产业+人口"双轮驱动下逆势上扬。这场变局背后，是人口流动、产业升级和政策调控的深度博弈。购房者、投资者该如何在这 场浪潮中找准方向？答案就藏在城市的"经济基因"里。 2025-2027：全国房价"普跌"中的结构性分化 三四线城市的困境，本质是"人口-产业-房价"的恶性循环。随着年轻人口向一二线城市迁移，这些城市购房需求持续萎缩，而前期过度开发的住宅库存却居 高不下。数据显示，部分三四线城市空置率已超25%，远超国际警戒线。更严峻的是，资源枯竭型城市（如鹤岗、双鸭山）因传统产业衰退，财政收入锐 减，城市更新乏力，房价可能率先跌回2015年水平。不过，环都市圈卫星城因承接一线城市外溢需求，叠加轨道交通（如地铁、城际铁路）贯通，可能成为 三四线城市中的"例外"，吸引部分通勤人群和养老群体，带动房价结构性补涨。 总结：楼市进入"精准投资"时代，选对城市比赌涨跌更重要 未来三年的楼市，早已不是"闭眼买都能赚"的时代。一线城市的核心资产仍是"硬通货"，但需 ...

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The first trend indicates a more pronounced differentiation in housing prices across different cities and locations, with core areas in first-tier and hot second-tier cities likely to see stable or slightly increasing prices due to strong economic development and talent influx [1][3][5] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities, particularly those experiencing population outflows, may face declining prices as demand weakens and inventory increases, leading developers to reduce prices to stimulate sales [3][5] - This price differentiation is expected to widen over the next three years [5] Group 2: Rental Market Evolution - The rental market is becoming more regulated and increasingly popular, especially among younger individuals who prefer the flexibility of renting over the financial burden of purchasing a home [6][8] - Recent policies have been implemented to enhance the rental market, reducing issues such as arbitrary rent increases and premature evictions by landlords [6] Group 3: Diversification in Real Estate Development - The real estate sector is diversifying its development strategies, moving beyond traditional residential sales to include sectors like senior living and vacation properties, catering to varied market demands [6][8] - Developers are creating specialized projects, such as retirement communities with comprehensive amenities and unique vacation properties in tourist destinations, reflecting a trend towards meeting diverse consumer needs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The future value of a property currently worth 3 million may vary significantly by 2030, influenced by three main factors: city differentiation, product quality, and developer reputation [1][2]. Group 1: City Differentiation - Properties in core urban areas of first-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai) are expected to maintain or increase in value, potentially reaching 3.3 to 3.5 million by 2030 due to stable demand and population growth [3]. - Strong second-tier cities (e.g., Hangzhou, Chengdu) show internal differentiation, where properties in developed areas may hold value around 3.1 million, while those in less developed areas could drop to 2.55 to 2.7 million [4]. - Ordinary second-tier and third-fourth tier cities face significant challenges, with properties potentially decreasing to 2.1 to 2.4 million due to lack of industrial support and population outflow [5]. Group 2: Product Differentiation - The quality of the property itself is crucial; well-designed homes with good amenities may retain value better, potentially selling for around 2.7 million, while poorly designed properties could drop to 1.8 million or less [7]. Group 3: Developer Differentiation - Properties developed by reputable large developers (e.g., Vanke, Poly) are seen as more reliable investments, while those from lesser-known developers carry higher risks of project failure or poor management, potentially leading to significant losses [8].

Group 1 - The global real estate market in 2025 shows a stark contrast, with UBS data indicating a 10.4% increase in the global real estate index, while China's housing market is in a downturn, with many landlords facing falling prices and unsold properties [1][4] - Major cities worldwide are experiencing rapid price increases, such as Tokyo's core area seeing over a 60% rise in prices over five years, and Seoul's 80 square meter apartments selling for 8.68 million RMB, nearly doubling in four years [1][4] - The price increases in these cities are driven by population growth, rising incomes, and a loose monetary environment, with Australia seeing over 400,000 net immigrants annually and Japan's university graduate employment rate at 98% with a 3.1% increase in starting salaries [1][4] Group 2 - In contrast, China's real estate market is facing a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices dropping to 25,000 RMB per square meter, a 1.25% month-on-month decline, while some new developments in Beijing sell out quickly [2][4] - The inventory of commercial housing nationwide requires over 23 months to deplete, with cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan seeing second-hand housing listings exceeding 200,000 units [2][4] - The demand side is under pressure, with marriage rates projected to fall below 5 million in 2024 and a significant decrease in the population of those born in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, leading to a substantial decline in traditional home-buying demand [2][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in China's housing market is not indicative of industry decline but rather the end of a bubble era, with past price increases driven by demographic and policy advantages rather than investment acumen [4][5] - The future of China's real estate market is expected to show a clear stratification, where properties in core urban areas will remain competitive, while vacant properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face significant value depreciation [4][5] - This adjustment is seen as a positive development, allowing housing to return to its fundamental purpose and freeing individuals from the obsession of being "trapped by housing" [4][5]

Core Insights - The recent policy changes are expected to lead to a decrease in transaction volume and price adjustments, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul [2] - The weekly growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul is projected to drop below 0.1% in the coming month due to restrictions on leveraged investments, increased taxes for multiple property owners, and higher mortgage thresholds [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Experts express concerns that the policy may exacerbate regional price disparities, with high-priced areas experiencing price increases while suburban areas stagnate [2] - The long-term reduction in housing supply could drive prices up, while the rental market may face pressure due to mortgage restrictions and bans on leveraged investments [2] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - Areas such as Gangnam, Yongsan, and Seongdong, which are characterized by cash-rich buyers and lower reliance on loans, are expected to see price increases [2] - In contrast, suburban areas that previously experienced lower price increases are likely to face significant stagnation, leading to a stark urban-rural divide [2] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - If policies restrict transactions, such as only allowing the transfer of rights among members in redevelopment apartments, a sharp decline in transaction volume may occur [2] - A decrease in supply could limit the extent of price declines, and when the market recovers, there may be a tendency for prices to rise [2]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant volatility, with predictions made by Pan Shiyi in 2018 regarding risks in the market being increasingly validated over time [1] - Key factors influencing the market include exchange rate differences, supply-demand balance, and sustainability of returns [3] Market Trends - The first trend observed is price fluctuations caused by supply disruptions, particularly as many buyers who utilized business loans during the peak period of 2020-2021 face risks due to falling property prices [5] - The second trend is the divergence in property prices across different cities and locations, with first-tier cities maintaining stable or rising prices while third and fourth-tier cities face downward pressure [5] - The third trend involves increasing difficulty in property demolition, as the market faces oversupply and government efforts focus on reducing inventory rather than increasing housing stock [7] Economic and Policy Environment - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth, but global economic uncertainties may impact the real estate market [7] - Government regulations aimed at stabilizing market expectations and prices continue to be enforced, including measures like purchase restrictions and lending limits [9] - Urbanization trends are leading to increased population movement towards first and second-tier cities, posing challenges for the real estate markets in third and fourth-tier cities [9] Market Sentiment and Challenges - The real estate market is characterized by uncertainty, with ongoing sales difficulties for developers and agents despite frequent policy interventions [11] - Issues such as unfinished projects (known as "rotten buildings") significantly undermine buyer confidence and contribute to market hesitance [11] - Buyers are encouraged to adopt a rational approach and avoid being misled by misleading promotions, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the current market landscape [13]

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a mixed performance, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5] New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2] - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, exhibited stronger price performance, with September new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [3] - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by real estate companies in core cities [3][4] Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6] - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6] - The second-hand home market is under significant pressure, particularly in second-tier cities, which experienced the largest price declines [6][7] Policy Impact - Various cities have begun implementing policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand housing market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, and the stabilization of home prices is seen as crucial for restoring market confidence [7]