Core Viewpoint - The quality of trade agreements is deemed more important than the timing of their signing, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Current trade negotiations are ongoing, with a focus on achieving high-quality agreements rather than rushing to complete them by August 1 [1] - Becerra acknowledges that while the U.S. is not in a hurry, the EU may prefer quicker negotiations, indicating increased EU engagement [1] - Analysts suggest that Becerra's comments imply a likelihood of "delay tactics" re-emerging as the August 1 deadline approaches [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Commentary - Becerra commented on Powell, stating that ultimately, decisions regarding Powell are made by Trump [1] - He emphasized the need to view the Federal Reserve as a cohesive institution [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections indicate a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in both years [1][6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures despite a cooling labor market [1][6]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed has removed previous language indicating rising risks of unemployment and inflation, suggesting a more stable outlook but still high uncertainty [2][5]. - The dot plot indicates that 8 out of 19 committee members support two rate cuts this year, while 7 favor maintaining the current rate, reflecting internal debates on the necessity of rate cuts [5][8]. Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with a 66% probability, driven by recent weak economic data [8][9]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged is viewed as a prudent choice given the complex economic landscape, with potential policy shifts expected by late summer or early fall [8][9].