择时轮动
Search documents
拥抱多资产FOF
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 08:17
Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "5 trillion yuan fixed deposits maturing soon" is gaining traction, with a significant amount of funds expected to be reallocated, particularly towards multi-asset allocation strategies like Funds of Funds (FOF) [1][17]. Group 1: Maturing Deposits and Market Dynamics - The estimated scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is approximately 50 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a notable concentration of maturity pressure in the first half of 2026 [1][17]. - The flow of this massive amount of maturing funds is a focal point for the market, as depositors typically have a low risk appetite and prefer stability over exposure to stock market volatility [1][17]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Allocation and FOF - FOFs are expected to attract more funds due to their core value of multi-asset allocation, which leverages the low correlation among different asset classes to mitigate non-systematic risks [1][17]. - Historical performance indicates that the multi-asset risk parity index has a maximum drawdown of only -3.79%, significantly lower than other asset classes, showcasing its strong risk resistance [2][20]. Group 3: Performance Metrics of Multi-Asset Strategies - The multi-asset risk parity index has achieved an annualized return of 4.73% with a Calmar ratio of 1.25, indicating a higher annualized return for each unit of maximum drawdown risk compared to single-asset indices [3][19]. - In 2025, the top-performing FOF, Guotai Youxuan Lihang, achieved an annual return of 66.14%, outperforming its peers significantly [4][21]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Manager Insights - The investment strategy for FOFs is evolving towards dynamic timing and rotation, moving away from static asset allocation to better manage systemic risks [6][22]. - The fund manager, Zeng Hui, emphasizes the importance of strict drawdown control and a comprehensive skill set for FOF managers, ensuring a robust investment process [6][24][25]. Group 5: New Product Launch - A new product, Guotai Multi-Asset Steady Navigation 6-Month Holding Period FOF, is being launched, targeting investors looking for diversified risk and stable returns, with equity investments comprising 5%-40% of the fund's assets [10][26].