证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 下半年市场增量资金哪里来？ 优于大市 存款搬家驱动哑铃型资金结构再调整 保险资金持续入市，国家队托底，而场内资金依靠小市值个股交易套利，导 致上半年资本市场呈现极致哑铃型资金结构。以市值因子观测，今年微盘股 收益最佳、小盘股次之、大盘股再次之。微盘股、小盘股年初以来持续领涨。 关税冲击后，大盘股表现出追赶效应。以"市值+风格"因子观测，大盘价 值、小盘成长、小盘价值取得明显超额，大盘成长及中盘股则表现较差。2025 年以来，市场增量资金包括：（1）中央汇金为代表的类平准基金，主要为 市场起托底作用；（2）保险公司为代表的金融机构，对股息稳定、大盘价 值风格较偏好，对红利因子持续加大投资；（3）中性策略的量化私募、部 分个人投资者两融资金，对波动率较高的小微盘股偏好度较高。 存款利率持续下行，下一步居民存款搬家将驱动增量资金入市，资金结构更 多元。（1）中央汇金和保险等资金，代表市场稳定器，持股风格整体稳定； 下一步保险负债成本下行，分红产品占比增加，为实现行业均衡，关注险资 红利资产"扩圈"带来的配置机会；（2）存款和纯固收产品持续低回报， 这成为催化居民加大权益资产 ...

■投基论道 配置策略越发多元 FOF上半年交出亮眼成绩单 Choice数据显示，截至6月底，今年以来FOF平均净值上涨3.64%，其中易方达黄金主题LOF以29.39%的 净值涨幅排名首位；汇添富黄金LOF、嘉实黄金LOF、诺安全球黄金FOF净值涨幅均超过20%；中信保 诚商品LOF、渤海汇金优选进取6个月持有混合发起A、工银睿智进取FOF等多只产品的净值涨幅也超过 10%。 回顾上半年表现出色的FOF产品可以发现，大多为黄金主题产品，或者在组合中纳入了黄金相关基金。 以渤海汇金优选进取6个月持有混合发起A为例，截至一季度末，华安黄金易ETF在组合中占比为 8.75%，这一比例相较于去年四季度末的5.68%提升了3.07个百分点。截至7月10日，今年以来华安黄金 易ETF上涨24.77%。 随着FOF显现出明显的赚钱效应，多家基金公司也在相关领域积极布局。Choice数据显示，今年以来合 计发行了31只FOF，发行份额为308.2亿份。与此同时，FOF产品所采用的投资策略也越发多元。以富达 任远稳健三个月持有期混合型FOF为例，该产品引入富达多元资产投资策略，不仅在组合中纳入黄金、 大宗商品等低相关性另类资产 ...

2025.07. 13 本文字数：1707，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 新关税落地，市场避险情绪再起。 7月11日，黄金价格短线走高，收报3370美元/盎司，涨1.34%。当周，COMEX黄金期货价格连涨 三日，在3300美元/盎司附近高位震荡。 分析人士认为，不确定性溢价重新回到市场，黄金正获得避险买盘。不过特朗普关税政策冲击反复， 市场预期持续被消化，黄金价格震荡。 针对国际金价近期陷入高位震荡，花旗此前发布报告提示短期波动风险，市场对美联储降息的预期已 经提前反映在金价中，甚至可能过度反应。因此，随着降息预期逐渐兑现，黄金的上涨动力将减弱， 价格可能回落。预计第三季度金价将在3100至3500美元/盎司盘整。 金价多空拉锯3300美元 关税消息反复扰动，近期金价波动剧烈，在3300美元/盎司上下震荡。 资金流向上，多空博弈趋势明显，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的数据显示，截至7月1日 当周，投机者所持COMEX黄金净多头头寸增加6213手至136697手，创11周新高。到了截至7月8日 当周，投机客减持COMEX黄金期货和期权净多头头寸1855手，至134842手。 今年上半 ...

黄金仍处在震荡上涨的趋势中 新关税落地，市场避险情绪再起。 7月11日，黄金价格短线走高，收报3370美元/盎司，涨1.34%。当周，COMEX黄金期货价格连涨三日，在3300美元/盎司附近高位震荡。 针对国际金价近期陷入高位震荡，花旗此前发布报告提示短期波动风险，市场对美联储降息的预期已经提前反映在金价中，甚至可能过度反应。因此，随着 降息预期逐渐兑现，黄金的上涨动力将减弱，价格可能回落。预计第三季度金价将在3100至3500美元/盎司盘整。 金价多空拉锯3300美元 关税消息反复扰动，近期金价波动剧烈，在3300美元/盎司上下震荡。 资金流向上，多空博弈趋势明显，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的数据显示，截至7月1日当周，投机者所持COMEX黄金净多头头寸增加6213手 至136697手，创11周新高。到了截至7月8日当周，投机客减持COMEX黄金期货和期权净多头头寸1855手，至134842手。 今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内最高涨幅约28%。当前黄金在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段，二 季度以来，金价整体处于盘整状态。 技术面上，金雅福黄金研究 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 下半年市场增量资金哪里来？ 优于大市 存款搬家驱动哑铃型资金结构再调整 保险资金持续入市，国家队托底，而场内资金依靠小市值个股交易套利，导 致上半年资本市场呈现极致哑铃型资金结构。以市值因子观测，今年微盘股 收益最佳、小盘股次之、大盘股再次之。微盘股、小盘股年初以来持续领涨。 关税冲击后，大盘股表现出追赶效应。以"市值+风格"因子观测，大盘价 值、小盘成长、小盘价值取得明显超额，大盘成长及中盘股则表现较差。2025 年以来，市场增量资金包括：（1）中央汇金为代表的类平准基金，主要为 市场起托底作用；（2）保险公司为代表的金融机构，对股息稳定、大盘价 值风格较偏好，对红利因子持续加大投资；（3）中性策略的量化私募、部 分个人投资者两融资金，对波动率较高的小微盘股偏好度较高。 存款利率持续下行，下一步居民存款搬家将驱动增量资金入市，资金结构更 多元。（1）中央汇金和保险等资金，代表市场稳定器，持股风格整体稳定； 下一步保险负债成本下行，分红产品占比增加，为实现行业均衡，关注险资 红利资产"扩圈"带来的配置机会；（2）存款和纯固收产品持续低回报， 这成为催化居民加大权益资产 ...

Group 1 - The report focuses on the changes in the primary and secondary markets since 2024, highlighting the evolving landscape of public REITs [4][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of constructing a configuration system that transitions from Beta to Alpha, aiming to enhance investment strategies [4][39]. Group 2 - The analysis includes an annual assessment of REITs, detailing investor structures and dividend distributions, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [4][24]. - The report provides a breakdown of various funds' positions in REITs, showcasing their allocation percentages and total holdings, which reflects investor sentiment and strategy [32][35]. Group 3 - The strategy section outlines the construction of a configuration system that shifts focus from Beta (market risk) to Alpha (excess returns), indicating a more active management approach [39]. - It presents performance metrics for different risk-return combinations, illustrating the annualized returns and volatility associated with various portfolio strategies [44].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion of the "Guangfa Asset Management Zhihui Guangyi Six-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund of Funds" into the "Guangfa Zhihui Diversified Allocation Six-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund of Funds," including the share conversion results and new unit net values for A and C class shares [1][3]. Group 1 - The fund's share conversion was executed on July 10, 2025, with the A class share net value before conversion at 1.0182 and C class share net value at 1.0055 [1]. - After the conversion, the unit net values for both A and C class shares were adjusted to 1.0000, with each A class share converting to approximately 1.0182 shares and each C class share converting to approximately 1.0055 shares [2]. - The conversion ratio was calculated based on the net asset value of the fund on the conversion date divided by the total number of registered shares prior to conversion [2]. Group 2 - Holders can check their converted fund shares starting July 14, 2025, through various promotional outlets [3]. - The formal change of the fund was executed following a resolution from the shareholders' meeting effective June 24, 2025, with further details on the reopening of subscriptions and redemptions to be announced by Guangfa Fund [3]. - For inquiries, stakeholders can contact the management company or visit the respective websites for more information [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold priced in RMB has significantly increased by 28% in 2024 and continues to rise in 2025, with a more than 24% increase in the first six months. However, the CEO of the World Gold Council's China division, Wang Lixin, notes that few investors have truly benefited from this surge despite the high returns compared to mainstream financial assets [1]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Ordinary investors face three main challenges when investing in gold: decision-making difficulties, timing issues, and holding challenges. The psychological aspect of investing is crucial, especially as gold prices reach new highs [1]. - Wang Lixin suggests that ordinary investors consider "Gold+" products, which allow professional institutions to manage gold investments [1]. Group 2: "Gold+" Products - "Gold+" products are defined as multi-asset portfolios that allocate more than 5% of their assets to gold. Currently, various public funds and bank wealth management products have emerged that include gold in their asset allocation [1]. - Most publicly available "Gold+" products allocate between 5% to 10% of their assets to gold, with some products reaching up to 30% [1]. Group 3: Broader Investment Strategy - The broader concept of "Gold+" refers to an investment philosophy that integrates gold into multi-asset portfolios as a key factor for risk hedging and smoothing returns [3]. - The number of FOF products that invest in gold ETFs has nearly doubled each year over the past few years, indicating a significant growth in direct investment in gold by professional institutions [3]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - Individual investors often engage in short-term trading of gold, which contradicts the long-term investment philosophy that gold is typically associated with. "Gold+" products aim to shift investors from short-term speculation to long-term allocation, enhancing gold's strategic role in investment portfolios [6]. - The World Gold Council emphasizes that the value of "Gold+" lies in its ability to enhance the overall resilience and risk management of investment portfolios, especially in the context of increasing global uncertainty [6].

Group 1 - In 2024, over 300 funds exited the market, marking a historic peak in fund liquidations [1] - In the first half of 2025, 129 funds announced liquidation, surpassing the same period last year [1] - Performance divergence has led to significant capital migration, with the bottom 20% of active equity funds experiencing substantial shrinkage, while the top 20% saw growth [1] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 11, 2025, nine funds were liquidated, including four initiated funds [1] - Notable underperformers include Dongcai Quality Life Selected and Yongying Excellent Selection, with returns of -17.80% and -22.86% respectively since inception [2] - The liquidation of initiated funds is primarily driven by two factors: failure to meet the minimum scale requirement of 200 million yuan and poor performance leading to investor redemptions [3] Group 3 - The initiated fund liquidation trend reflects several key industry trends, including a lack of profitability in the A-share market and decreased investor interest in equity funds [3] - Smaller fund companies have a higher liquidation rate for initiated funds, indicating a need for improvement in product marketing and investor education [3] - The liquidation mechanism encourages fund managers to focus on product design and market alignment, promoting a shift towards higher quality development in the industry [3] Group 4 - The process for handling remaining assets after initiated fund liquidation includes paying liquidation fees, settling tax obligations, and clearing fund debts [4][5] - Remaining assets are distributed to investors based on their shareholding proportions after all obligations are settled [6] - The distribution of remaining assets typically occurs in cash and may take around six months, subject to liquidity constraints [7]

Core Insights - In June 2025, over 500 FOF funds had an average return of 2.11% and a median return of 1.83%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.5% [1] - More than 90% of FOF funds achieved positive returns in June, with notable performers including Guotai's Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding and others exceeding 7% returns [1][2] - Some FOF funds, particularly those newly established, underperformed, with institutions like Dongfanghong Asset Management and Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund showing weaker results [1][10] Performance Summary - Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding achieved a return of 9.26% in June, with a cumulative return of 11.11% for the first half of 2025 [6] - Other high-performing funds included Guotai Industry Rotation A at 8.02%, and Jiao Yin Smart Selection at 7.31% [2] - A list of top-performing FOF funds in June includes several with returns exceeding 20%, such as Yongying Technology Smart Selection A at 37.21% [3][4] Underperforming Funds - Some FOF funds experienced slight losses, with the worst performer, Dongfanghong Yingfeng Stable Allocation, showing a decrease of 0.04% [13] - Newly established funds, such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Kangyue Stable Pension One-Year Holding, also reported minimal gains, indicating challenges in early performance [10][13] - The underperformance of certain funds is attributed to their recent establishment and lack of substantial asset bases [10][13]