Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has entered a long-term downward trend, with prices in both second and first-tier cities experiencing significant declines since the second half of 2021, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - National second-hand housing prices have fallen for over 30 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 7.34% in August [1]. - Prices in second and third-tier cities have seen substantial drops, with some areas experiencing declines exceeding 60% [5]. - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which previously resisted price drops, are now expected to adjust downward to align with local income levels [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The housing market is characterized by a significant bubble, with price-to-income ratios in second and third-tier cities ranging from 20-25, and in first-tier cities reaching as high as 40 [3]. - The lack of profit potential in the real estate market has led to a withdrawal of speculative investors, resulting in a more cautious approach from potential buyers [3]. - The increase in housing supply, coupled with a rapid decline in buyer demand, has made it increasingly difficult for sellers to find buyers for second-hand properties [7]. Group 3: Financial Pressure on Homeowners - Households owning two or more properties are expected to face increasing financial pressure due to fixed-rate mortgage contracts, even as their incomes may decline or they face unemployment [9]. - Rising costs associated with property maintenance, such as utilities and management fees, further exacerbate the financial burden on these households [9].