曾经被视作炙手可热的香饽饽，人们争相抢购，恨不得倾囊所有的房产，如今却让许多拥有多套房产的家庭如坐针毡，措手不及。楼市风向的骤然转变，如 同突如其来的寒流，让这些家庭感受到了前所未有的压力。 回想当年，房价如日中天，购房者仿佛被甜蜜的汁液所吸引，即使背负沉重的债务，也依然干劲十足。然而，世事变迁，唯一不变的便是变化本身。当房价 下跌的趋势显现，心态也随之急转直下，每个月高昂的房贷不再是收益的来源，而变成了沉重的负担。闲置的房屋难以出售，出租的价格也远不如预期，再 加上每月必须缴纳的物业费，多重压力让人喘不过气。 事实上，房地产市场早已今非昔比，只涨不跌的神话已经彻底破灭。早在2018年，眼光独到的李嘉诚就曾预言，未来五年房价将面临一场大洗牌，告诫炒房 客们务必谨慎。然而，当时的市场一片火热，许多人对此不以为然。七年光阴荏苒，全国百城二手房价已连续29个月下跌，二手房挂牌量更是激增至15万套 以上，足以证明李嘉诚预言的准确性。 一组冰冷的数据揭示了残酷的现实：中国城镇家庭中，高达41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上住房。这些家庭正无可避免地承受着三种令人难以接受的结局。 最重要的是保持积极乐观的心态。房地产市场的调整 ...

房价这样的下跌态势，让本就信心不太足的市场难受了。虽然说"止跌回稳"也并不是意味着房价就会一路上涨，但是如今出现连续几个月的下跌调整，就难 免会让人怀疑原本有走好迹象的市场是不是又变得不太乐观了。 今年4月份，房价走势出现波动是情有可原，原本以为调整一两个月就重拾上升通道，但没想到这一波动就是4个月，而且市场呈现出了明显的上行发力的特 征。如果这种态势不能得到扭转，接下的房价走势可能会更加难受了。 0 0 app 120 S PACE Van 最新公布的7月份的70个大中城市的房价变动情况，有点不容乐观。从4月份起，房价下跌范围在继续扩大，已经持续了4个月了。这是不是意味着自去年10 月份以来的房价止跌回涨的态势结束了？至少是暂停了吧！ 当然更重要的原因恐怕是未来新增的住房需求有限。住房的供应量还可以控制，但是住房需求面临萎缩的情况在短时间内是很难解决的。住房需求减少预期 的根本原因就是总人口进入了负增长，仅仅2022年-2024年，总人口已经是减少了432万人。如果总人口负增长的态势难以改变，未来总体的住房需求也会减 少，这对于房地产市场来说才是最难解决的事情，很多城市的房价都会面临着下跌的风险。 以上是对 ...

"2019年听销售忽悠买的房，现在成了我一生最沉重的决定。"同学聚会上，老刘的这句话让全场沉默。他掏出手机，翻出购房合同：首付50万，月供4800 元，两套"规划高铁站旁"的新房，如今房价跌了30%，入住率不足三成，物业费每月倒贴300元。他苦笑着自嘲："这哪是资产？是负债，是杀人不见血的枷 锁。" 老刘的故事不是孤例。过去二十年，房产是无数家庭的"财富密码"，但如今，它正变成"沉没成本"的代名词。房价下跌、资产缩水、变现困难……三大困境 交织，让近一半家庭陷入被动。马云的"房价如葱"预言，正在从调侃变成现实。 "当年咬牙上车，现在骑虎难下。"这是许多购房者的真实写照。 过去房价单边上涨时，贷款买房是"加杠杆赚钱"；如今房价下跌，同样的房子却成了"加杠杆负债"。以一套150万的房子为例：首付30%（45万），贷款105 万，30年月供近6000元，本息合计超260万，比本金多一倍。更扎心的是，房价跌了，欠银行的钱一分没少；首付亏光，利息还在"滴答"作响；租不出去， 还得自掏腰包供空房。 更严峻的是，房产税的"达摩克利斯之剑"正在落下。地方财政压力增大、土地收入断崖式下滑，征收房产税几乎成为必然。一旦实施，多套 ...

说实话在弃房断供的人里有些炒房客的遭遇真让人同情不起来。他们买房不是为了住，就是想投机赚钱。 不少人觉得，国内房价就是被他们炒起来的。 你想啊如果大家都是刚需买房，房价能涨这么猛吗？尤其是有些企业放着实体不做，拿钱炒房和老百姓抢 利益，这谁看了不生气？所以啊要是炒房的亏了特别是那些炒房的企业，老百姓只会拍手称快。 西南财经大学2018年的报告显示：当年新购房里58.2%是投资买房，改善住房的占26.7%，首次刚需买房的 只占15.1%。 可2008年的时候刚需买房占69.7%，投资的才19.6%。十年时间，投资买房的数量差不多是刚需的4倍。这 些人看着像是吃了时代红利，其实都是在榨刚需购房者的血汗钱。 2017年哈尔滨一个个体户花3.5万/平在燕郊买了套109.3平的三居室，总价380多万，首付100万，剩下280万 大多是房贷。 她说买房是为了等孩子高考后到北京上大学住，可孩子最后去了外地读书，这理由谁信啊？说白了就是觉 得房价会涨能赚钱。要是知道房价会跌，她还会来燕郊买房吗？到了2021年，燕郊房价跌到1.5万/平，四 年亏了200多万。 她想卖又舍不得更不敢断供，因为断供后银行拍卖房子要是不够还贷款，会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with predictions for price stabilization in major cities being pushed back, indicating a prolonged period of low market activity [1] Group 1: Local Finance - The land finance model, which has supported local finances for over two decades, is now in jeopardy, with land transfer revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3] - The difficulties faced by real estate companies have led to a lack of interest in the land market, exacerbating the financial strain on local governments [3] - This creates a vicious cycle where tight local finances hinder large-scale construction, leading to fewer projects and reduced tax revenue [3] Group 2: Secondary Housing Market - In Shanghai, over 40,000 newly restricted homes are set to be released in 2026, posing a risk of market collapse as prices for previously high-demand properties have plummeted [6] - The number of second-hand homes listed in Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded 160,000, with even a 20% price reduction failing to attract buyers [6] - A potential panic selling scenario could lead to a complete breakdown of the pricing system in the secondary housing market [6] Group 3: Real Estate Company Debt - By 2025, real estate companies will face nearly 3 trillion yuan in maturing debt, forcing developers to resort to drastic price cuts to sell properties [7] - The cycle of price reduction, mortgage defaults, and subsequent forced sales creates a downward spiral that is difficult to reverse [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - With real estate accounting for nearly 70% of household assets in China, the ongoing decline in property prices has severely impacted consumer wealth and spending intentions [8] - The perception of wealth has diminished, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence and spending, as evidenced by reduced budgets for purchases like cars [8] Group 5: Market Confidence - The real estate market is trapped in a cycle of declining confidence, with new home prices falling for 39 consecutive months and second-hand home prices for 41 months [8] - The average sales cycle for homes in major cities has extended to 20 months, reflecting a lack of buyer interest [8] - The fundamental logic of the housing market has shifted, with an oversupply of housing and insufficient actual demand, indicating a return to the primary function of housing as a living space rather than a wealth symbol [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing moderate decline in London housing prices is viewed positively, as it may alleviate various burdens in the UK, including labor market and social mobility barriers [1][2] - The article highlights a shift in the housing market, with current house prices at six times the average annual income, down from eight times a decade ago, indicating a significant change [1][2] Group 1: Housing Market Trends - Several factors contributing to the decline in housing prices include the introduction of the buy-to-let tax in 2015, the Brexit referendum, and the rise of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Unlike previous housing market crashes, the current decline in London housing prices has not led to systemic financial shocks or negative impacts on other regions, with some areas potentially benefiting from changing housing demand patterns [2][3] Group 2: Regional Economic Performance - The Greater Manchester area has shown impressive economic growth and productivity, with its absolute productivity level now only 35% lower than London, down from nearly 50% [2][3] - Other regions, such as Rotherham in South Yorkshire, have also experienced significant productivity increases, indicating a potential for broader national growth if these trends can be replicated [3] Group 3: Policy and Structural Challenges - The article discusses persistent economic absurdities, such as the "triple lock" pension system, which requires pension increases to match inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, highlighting the need for reform [3][4] - The necessity for decisive action from elected policymakers and civil servants is emphasized, suggesting that seemingly insurmountable economic challenges may be more manageable than perceived [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The July housing price report indicates a continued decline in the second-hand housing market, with an average price of 13,585 yuan per square meter across 100 cities, reflecting a month-on-month drop of 0.77% [1] Group 1: Price Decline - The cumulative decline of 0.7% per month could lead to nearly a 10% decrease by the end of the year, equating to a loss of 200,000 yuan on a 2 million yuan property [3] - Major cities are also experiencing price drops, with Beijing down 0.61%, Shanghai down 0.57%, and Shenzhen down 0.55%, while Guangzhou saw a decline of 0.82% [4] - In second and third-tier cities, the situation is even worse, with cities like Hefei, Xi'an, and Zhengzhou experiencing month-on-month declines exceeding 1% [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the increase in transaction volume, the number of listings continues to rise, indicating that more homeowners are lowering prices to sell, fearing they will miss out [4] - Properties that were listed at the beginning of 2023 could see a cumulative decline of over 25% if owners do not adjust their asking prices [4] - The market is characterized by a lack of recovery potential for many ordinary second-hand homes, especially those in less desirable locations or with outdated features [4][8] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - Current policy measures are primarily focused on new housing, as second-hand transactions do not contribute to land finance, leading to a neglect of the second-hand market [6] - Even high-demand areas like Haidian in Beijing and Qiantan in Shanghai are witnessing significant price reductions, with some new properties selling for 8% less than three months prior [7] - The ongoing market adjustment is not a short-term fluctuation but a prolonged decline that has persisted for four years, with over 20% of cities experiencing monthly declines exceeding 1% [8]

这也就不难理解了，当年任正非还自嘲的说自己当初"真傻"，要是当初去搞房地产生意，肯定会更有钱。 可十年河东十年河西啊，现在的房子，连王健林都摇头，专家们有的甚至预测未来还可能"创历史新低"。 有没有可能？ 01.房子大跳水超预期 其实，大城市这一轮楼市调整，基本上是2021年开始，有些远郊城市比这还早。 那么具体跌了多少？ 原重庆市市长黄奇帆在一次峰会上说：总体上跌了40%-50%，有的地方小一些，有的地方空间更大。 当然，跌也是有原因的，除了政策层面的调控，更多还是市场自身的"自然调整"。 叠加人口红利消失，这一点从2022就开始了，连续多年人口负增长，而且老龄化加剧，出生人口持续下降， 再加上年轻人思维的转变，购房意愿不高， 02.专家预言：未来三年还有"历史新低"？ 98年房改以后，楼市经历了20多年的上涨，这期间也有调整，但从未有过像202一年这一轮， 总体调整幅度高达40%，前所未有！为啥调整这么狠？ 知名房地产专家、经济学家李稻葵教授的分析，未来三年房价跌破历史新低的可能性是非常大的。 另外，根据李稻葵教授的说法，未来的房价，尤其是一些城市的房价，可能会回到过去五到十年的低点，某些三四线城市将更低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the real estate market across China shows a significant decline in housing prices, affecting both first-tier and second/third-tier cities, with some areas experiencing price drops of over 60% [2][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices have decreased nationwide, with an example of a property purchased for 4 million now valued at 2.56 million, reflecting a 36% drop [2]. - In Shanghai's Minhang District, prices fell from 98,000 yuan per square meter to 46,000 yuan, a decline of 50% [2]. - The average decline in housing prices across the country exceeds 30%, with some cities seeing drops over 60% [9]. Group 2: Impact on Homeowners - Families with only one home are less affected as their primary concern is housing for living rather than investment [4]. - For families owning two homes, the cost of holding properties is increasing due to rising expenses such as property fees and maintenance, despite lower mortgage rates around 3% [6]. - The value of real estate constitutes 77% of household assets, making families with two homes vulnerable to rapid asset depreciation as prices continue to fall [9]. Group 3: Challenges in Selling Properties - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is expected to surge, with a 15.8% increase year-on-year, making it difficult for homeowners to sell unless they price below market value by 10%-15% [9]. - The increase in listings indicates a challenging environment for families with two homes to liquidate their assets [9]. Group 4: Rental Market Pressures - The strategy of "renting to pay mortgage" is under threat, especially in third and fourth-tier cities where rental prices are low and demand is weak due to population outflows [12]. - In major cities, rental prices are also declining, complicating the ability of homeowners to cover mortgage payments through rental income [12].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of China's real estate market in 2025 shows that despite relaxed policies and attractive mortgage rates, housing prices are not increasing as expected, with significant declines in some areas [1][3]. Policy Changes - As of 2025, 132 cities have relaxed housing policies, with down payments reduced to 15% and first-home mortgage rates as low as 3.25% [3]. - In Hefei, the complete removal of purchase restrictions resulted in only a 7% increase in residential transactions compared to April, significantly lower than the 30% increase seen in 2020 [3]. Market Performance - A project launched in 2023 with 1,200 units sold only 312 units over two years, resulting in a sales rate of less than 26% [5]. - Nationwide, there is a housing inventory of 782 million square meters, which, at the current sales pace, would take 14 months to sell out, with inventory increasing by 5.2% monthly [5]. Price Disparities - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, slight price increases were observed, with Dongcheng and Huangpu districts seeing increases of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, due to limited new supply [7]. - In contrast, cities like Dongguan and Changzhou experienced significant price drops, with new home prices falling by 18.3% compared to their peak in 2023 [7]. Buyer Sentiment - First-time homebuyers and investors have differing perspectives, with first-time buyers more concerned about price guarantees and developers' reliability [9]. - Data indicates that the average time to resell a property has increased to 6.8 years in 2025, compared to 3.2 years in 2019, making short-term profit from property sales unlikely [9]. Developer Trust Issues - Ongoing issues with delayed property deliveries have led to buyer skepticism, with 23 cities still facing unresolved overdue delivery projects as of June 2025 [11]. - This lack of trust in developers has diminished the effectiveness of policy measures, with transaction volume increases significantly lower in 2025 compared to 2020 [11]. Future Outlook - Core cities may see slight price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities are likely to experience further declines [13]. - The era of significant wealth accumulation through real estate investment may be over, although first-time buyers may benefit from more negotiating power [13].