Group 1 - The core issue is that despite China's large population, consumer spending remains low, with retail sales growth significantly lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, only reaching 7.2% in 2023 and dropping to 4-5% in 2025 [2][4][6] - Household savings have surged, with deposits increasing by over 14 trillion in 2024, reaching 151 trillion, and an additional 12.73 trillion added in the first three quarters of 2025, while retail sales growth continues to decline [4][6] - The phenomenon of "14 billion people cannot drive consumption" has become a trending topic, highlighting the disconnect between population size and consumer spending, with urban areas experiencing high vacancy rates in retail spaces [6][8] Group 2 - Key factors contributing to low consumer spending include rapid aging of the population, with over 300 million people aged 60 and above, leading to different consumption habits focused on healthcare and savings rather than discretionary spending [8][10] - The real estate market downturn has negatively impacted wealth expectations, with many families seeing significant declines in property values, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending [10][12] - Income growth is not keeping pace with inflation and housing costs, with nominal growth around 5% in 2025, but real disposable income growth being much lower, causing consumers to prioritize savings over spending [12][14] Group 3 - Excess capacity in various industries has led to price wars and thin profit margins, making it difficult for companies to raise wages, which in turn affects consumer spending [14][16] - A cycle of low spending has emerged, where reduced consumer expenditure leads to lower sales for businesses, stagnant wages, and further reluctance to spend, resulting in a significant portion of funds remaining in banks [16][18] - Government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption have started to show positive effects, with retail sales rebounding in mid-2025 and GDP growth stabilizing at 5.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [18][20]

文/肥猪满圈 前几天一女的，某地，我就不说城市名了，要不又有人说我地域歧视污名化了。我不污名你所在的城市，让你所在的城市野蛮生长吧，我们老污名的城市， 我们老歧视的地域现在发展的越来越好，你们这些不允许污名不允许歧视的地域，现在发展的越来越差，不就这样吗对吧？ 所以说，我觉得这女的，真的，她很幸运，她的幸运是她本就生在一个房价不高的特大城市。我假设这女的即便，不就100多万了，全没了，也只才100多万 啊，如果1000万呢2000万呢5000万8000万呢，那你还有活路吗？ 我就说这女的，6年前那就是大约2019年或者2018年吧，她买的100多平的房子，100多万，她首付30万贷款70万。这不还了6年贷款了，每个月还3800多，6 年还了多少？还了27万多。 我说这地儿啊，反正是挺大的一个大城市，中国北方高楼大厦第一城，高楼比北京多多了，我特别喜欢这地儿，物价贼便宜，我老去，一个多月前，我还去 了一次呢，就这么一个城市。 话说这女的说，6年前她买了一房子，100多平，花了100多万。具体数她说的很详细，我有点记不清了。 我想说的是，这女的真的，特别的幸运，你要不是你那地儿的人，你要是某某市呢？你那才跌多少， ...

从2022年起，国内房价就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是天津、郑州、武汉等二三线城市房价出现下跌。之后像上海、深圳等一线城市也加入到房价下跌 的队伍中。全国房价平均跌幅超过30%。而前些年，那些掏光家里所有积蓄付首付，还欠下银行几十年房贷的家庭，现在不仅要面对沉重的房贷压力，而且 还要遭受房价下跌，房子市值缩水的烦恼。 我同事郑斌，在2022年花了500万买了一套房子，他当时买房主要是为了能在大城市买房，圆上住房梦。而在时隔3年之后，现在这套房子的市场价跌到350 万，郑斌却还欠着银行贷款380万。这种"房子变负资产"的情况，如今早已不是个例了。事实上，在经历了这一轮房价下跌之后，我们想提醒普通人该醒醒 了，以下这6大启示，揭示房地产市场的真相： 第一，房价下跌，最受伤的是普通人 现如今，国内居民把大部分资产都投在房子上。资料显示，房子占国内家庭总资产的77%，另有23%才是金融资产。这意味着，居民把宝都押在房子上面。 而一旦房价进入长期调整的通道，多数居民手里的房产市值会不断缩水，最受伤的却是那些在房价高位买房的家庭。不仅如此，这些家庭偿还银行的月供一 分钱不能少，所有房价下跌的风险都由购房者承担。 第二， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent claims about Li Ka-shing predicting outcomes for families owning more than two properties are deemed false, as he has not made such predictions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2022, domestic housing prices have entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average decline exceeding 30% nationwide [5] - The primary reasons for the decline include an oversupply of housing, economic downturn affecting residents' incomes, and significant housing price bubbles in various cities [5][6] Group 2: Potential Outcomes for Property Owners - Outcome 1: Continuous decline in housing prices leading to asset depreciation for families with multiple properties [3][5] - Outcome 2: Increased difficulty in selling properties, with a projected surge in second-hand listings reaching over 7.3 million by November 2025 [9] - Outcome 3: Rising holding costs due to increased property-related expenses and the impending introduction of property taxes in more cities [11] - Outcome 4: Challenges in renting out properties, making the "rent to pay mortgage" strategy increasingly unviable due to oversupply in rental markets [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant declines in housing prices, very few individuals are opting to default on their mortgages, indicating a strong psychological and financial commitment to maintaining their obligations [2][8]. Group 1: Psychological Factors - Many individuals express anxiety over falling housing prices but are reluctant to default due to the severe consequences, including loss of savings and family financial stability [3][7]. - The fear of facing failure and the associated shame plays a crucial role in the decision to continue making mortgage payments, even under financial strain [6][7]. - The burden of mortgage payments is often prioritized over other living expenses, reflecting a deep-seated commitment to financial responsibilities [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Defaulting on a mortgage could lead to severe repercussions such as bank foreclosure, ruined credit records, and increased family pressure, which are significant deterrents for homeowners [6][7][8]. - Many individuals are choosing to endure the financial strain of mortgage payments rather than risk the long-term consequences of defaulting, viewing it as a necessary sacrifice for the sake of family and personal integrity [7][8]. Group 3: Market Observations - The current housing market is characterized by a paradox where prices are declining sharply, yet the rate of mortgage defaults remains low, suggesting a collective resilience among homeowners [2][8]. - The ongoing pressure from mortgage obligations continues to weigh heavily on individuals, creating a sense of walking a tightrope where the fear of falling into default looms large [8].

我最近越来越能理解一句话：房子买得越早的人，现在越不敢看房价。 尤其是像我这种普通上班族，掏空六个钱包买了套小房，结果三年过去，资产就像气球放气一样，一天天地瘪下去。你说我能不慌吗？ 前两天，部门同事小刘下班一起走，他叹了口气说："哥，我这两周天天加班到十一点，不是想升职，也不是想多赚钱，就是怕哪天房贷断供了。" 我听得心里挺不是滋味。我说："你一个月还多少？" 他说："七千多，我工资扣完五险一金到手八千七。你说我这不是在为房子打工，我这是在为银行打工吧？" 我沉默了几秒，也只能点点头。 因为我们都一样。 其实现在这种状态，在大城市打工的人谁没经历过？白天忙成狗，晚上累得不想说话，但房贷短信每个月准时提醒你：别忘了，你的压力还在呢。 有时候你会觉得生活特别荒诞——你拼命加班，就是为了守着一个每天在跌价的东西。它不是升值的资产，它就是一个沉甸甸的负担。 朋友圈里有人挂了半年，降价几十万也没有动静。中介直接说："哥，诚心卖的话，还得再往下调。" 但往下调意味着什么？意味着你辛辛苦苦攒十年的首付，可能就这么蒸发了。谁能接受？ 前两天我爸给我打电话，说得挺直接："要不你就把房卖了，换个轻松点的地方生活。" 我说："爸 ...

前几天，我们小区的张大姐在电梯里跟我说："现在这房价啊，真是让人看不懂。涨的时候怕买不起，跌的时候又担心还会继续跌。"她这话说到我心坎里 了。确实，房价问题已经成为我们每个人都绕不开的话题。 根据国家统计局发布的2024年房地产市场数据显示，全国70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅价格环比下降的城市数量明显增加。这个现象让很多人开始思考一 个问题：如果房价真的全面下跌，会给我们的生活带来什么影响？ 其实，房价下跌听起来是好事，毕竟能让更多人买得起房。可现实往往比我们想象的复杂得多。作为一个关注房地产市场多年的普通人，我觉得有必要跟大 家聊聊房价全面下跌可能带来的几个严重问题。 我有个朋友是做建材生意的，他告诉我，现在工地开工明显减少，订单比去年同期下降了近30%。这还只是房价稳中有降的情况下，如果真的全面下跌，那 些依赖房地产的行业会怎么样？水泥、钢材、装修、家具、家电，这一连串的产业链上有多少人的饭碗？ 更关键的是，地方财政对土地出让金的依赖程度很高。根据财政部门的统计，2023年全国土地出让收入占地方一般公共预算收入的比例仍然不小。房价下跌 直接影响土地价值，地方财政收入减少，公共服务投入也会受到影响。你想想， ...

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a significant adjustment, with average housing prices dropping from 11,000 yuan per square meter to 9,526 yuan, a decline of over 15% [3] - Many families that have not yet purchased homes may find solace in the declining prices, as it brings them closer to achieving their housing dreams [3] - The trend of falling housing prices is spreading from northern cities to southern cities and from lower-tier cities to first-tier cities [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The average housing price in China has decreased significantly, with 34 out of 70 major cities seeing prices revert to two years ago levels, and 27 cities to three years ago levels [3] - The number of vacant homes in China is projected to exceed 100 million in five years, with current estimates at 65 million [5] Group 2: Challenges for Homeowners - Households owning multiple properties face unprecedented challenges, including increased holding costs and potential asset depreciation [5][6] - The costs associated with holding properties are rising, as property taxes are expected to be implemented more broadly, increasing the financial burden on property owners [6]

当一线城市房价从峰值回落30%，二线城市部分区域腰斩过半，这些数字背后是家庭财务结构的根本性质变。 上海内环某豪宅单价跌破7万元，燕郊部分小区月供甚至高于当前房价。 这些案例折射出房地产市场的深刻转向。 全国重点城市二手房价格累计跌幅已达 15?5%，一二线热点城市跌幅甚至超过30%。 家住杭州的大福没想到，2021年丈夫以360万元购入的婚房，短短几年后只能以300万元卖出。 算上装修费、增值税和房贷利息，这个家庭的总亏损超过100 万元。 卖房后半个月，她每天以泪洗面，直到搬进邻近森林公园的出租屋，才发现月供从1.2万元降至3000元的房租，反而让生活有了新的可能。 李嘉诚曾在早年预警："房子始终是用来住人的，高房价状态难以长久维持。 "当前中国超42%的家庭持有两套及以上房产，房产在家庭总资产中占比高达 77%。 对于多套房家庭，资产缩水只是第一重打击。 更棘手的是流动性困境：一套住房从挂牌到成交的平均时间，从2020年的45天延长至2024年的117天。 这意味 着即便想变现，也需要等待近四个月。 挂满横幅的售楼处里，业主们围堵着销售人员。 郑州某个楼盘三年降价30%，当初精心挑选的婚房，最终亏损百万 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant downturn in China's real estate market, which has seen property prices decline sharply since 2018, contrary to earlier predictions of continued growth [1][2] - The impact of this downturn varies greatly among different demographics, with homeowners primarily seeking residence feeling less affected compared to property investors facing severe financial challenges [2][19] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall trend in China's real estate market is a downward trajectory, with cities like Shanghai experiencing a price drop of over 30%, from a peak of over 90,000 yuan per square meter to around 60,000 yuan [1][2] - The second-hand housing market is flooded with listings, with Beijing reaching 147,000 and Shanghai nearing 170,000, indicating a significant oversupply [4][19] Group 2: Investor Challenges - Investors holding multiple properties face dire consequences, including being unable to sell their assets, leading to a situation where their investments become a financial burden rather than a source of wealth [4][5] - The liquidity of second-hand properties is declining, making it increasingly difficult for owners to sell quickly, even in urgent situations [7][8] Group 3: Financial Implications - The ongoing decline in property values is causing significant asset depreciation, with many homeowners seeing their properties lose value compared to their purchase price, leading to financial distress [8][19] - Rising holding costs, including property management fees and potential property taxes, are adding to the financial strain on property owners, particularly those with multiple properties [9][11] Group 4: Rental Market Dynamics - The rental market is becoming increasingly challenging, with the "rent-to-pay mortgage" model failing as rental prices drop, making it difficult for landlords to cover mortgage payments [15][19] - In major cities, the demand for rentals is decreasing due to economic pressures, leading to significant drops in rental income, further exacerbating financial difficulties for property owners [17][19]